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FRANCE EXPLAINED

How do the French feel about the EU?

France is one of the twin 'engines' of the EU and Emmanuel Macron is emerging as the de facto leader of the Bloc over Ukraine - but what do ordinary French people think about EU membership? And is there any support for a 'Frexit'?

The French are deeply ambivalent about the EU
The French are deeply ambivalent about the EU, but there is no real risk of a Frexit anytime soon. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

Surveys suggest that the French have mixed feelings about the European Union. 

In January, a polling company called Elabe conducted a representative survey of 1,000 French people over the age of 18. They found that 39 percent of respondents thought that EU membership carried as many disadvantages as advantages; 33 percent said that there were more disadvantages; while 27 percent said there were more advantages. 

“If we are pragmatic about it, of course we are obliged to be part of Europe, because we cannot act alone considering what is happening in Ukraine or with the pandemic,” said Chlo, a Paris-based pensioner. 

“But the French people voted against the European constitution [the Lisbon Treaty] and it was imposed on us anyway. I think that really winds people up. They don’t see why politicians in Brussels or Strasbourg are more followed than our own MPs.”

The Elabe poll showed that men were more likely to have a negative perception of French membership of the EU than women, with the biggest sceptics aged between 35-49. People aged 18-24 had the most positive impression.

Those who supported French President Emmanuel Macron – an ardent Europhile – at the 2017 election were the most likely to say that membership of the bloc was advantageous (58 percent) – while only 9 percent of those who backed far-right leader Marine Le Pen shared the same view. 

Negative feeling towards the bloc has decreased since 2016, when the UK voted to leave. An Odoxa poll from 2019 found that 66 percent of French people said that Brexit would make other Europeans less likely to want to leave the bloc. 

The French have a mixed feeling towards the EU.

The grey line indicates the percentage of the population who think that French membership of the bloc carries equal pros and cons; the black line indicates those who have a negative perception and the yellow line represents those who have a positive view. (Source: Elabe 2022)

“Brexit really cost UK a lot economically,” said Sacha Sarfati, a financial auditor in Paris. “If France was to leave, it would cost us too.”

However the Elabe survey found that the majority of French people thought that the EU was not up to the task of tackling the economic fallout (55 percent) and health crisis (60 percent) caused by the pandemic. 

The French are less enthusiastic about the EU than many other member states. 

An IFOP survey published in December 2021 found that 29 percent of French people wanted a “more integrated” Europe, versus 43 percent of Germans and 50 percent of Italians. The French were also less likely to say that they were proud Europeans.

Where do the French presidential candidates stand on Europe? 

In 2017, François Asselineau ran as a presidential candidate for a pro-Frexit party called the Union Populaire Républicaine, winning less than one percent of the vote. This time around, he failed to get enough parrainages to compete in the race. 

None of the candidates in the 2022 French presidential election are openly calling for France to leave the EU. 

Macron is avidly pro-European and since the start of the Ukraine war has been pushing for greater European co-operation on defence and energy policy.

“Wanting to weaken Europe is to leave France alone facing the threats of the world. Europe must be an extra protection for France,” reads his manifesto. 

He has stressed the need for the EU to become more autonomous by investing more resources in defence, energy and technology.  

Back in 2017, Marine Le Pen advocated leaving the European Union, which she described as “an illegitimate supranational structure” and abandoning the Euro currency. Since then, she has changed tack. 

Le Pen is no longer in favour of Frexit, but would like to withdraw France from various EU treaties and get rid of the EU Commission, transforming it into a technical secretariat for the EU Council. She wants to transform the bloc into an association of allied member states capable of negotiating bilateral deals between themselves – something that would be very difficult to achieve within the Bloc.

“I am here to make the will of the French people respected,” she told France Inter in January. We will make [French] constitutional law superior to European law”. 

Valérie Pécresse, candidate of the centre-right Les Républicains, has called for an “overhaul” of the Schengen agreement under which people can move freely within the EU. This too is unlikely to fly with officials in Brussels. 

The campaign website of the main left-wing candidate in the election, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, gives a scathing account of the EU – particularly the free-market foundations of the bloc, which he claims are leading to social and ecological catastrophe. 

He would like the EU to give member states greater sovereignty over their budget and to enshrine greater environmental protection and harmonisation between the countries. 

The extreme-right candidate, Eric Zemmour, has a position on Europe that blends the most hostile elements of the Le Pen and Pécresse programmes. He would like to transform the EU into a collective of independent states, scrap EU rules on migration and prevent Turkey from joining the bloc. He would also like to ban the display of the EU flag in France without a French flag displayed next to it. 

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JOHN LICHFIELD

OPINION: Macron’s attempts to tame world leaders shows he’s more a thinker than a diplomat

French President Emmanuel Macron's flawed efforts to charm the world's autocratic and populist leaders have previously ended in failure or even humiliation. Taking the Chinese president to the Pyrenees won't change that record, writes John Lichfield.

OPINION: Macron's attempts to tame world leaders shows he's more a thinker than a diplomat

Emmanuel Macron used to fancy himself as a lion-tamer.

There wasn’t a murderous dictator or mendacious populist that the French President would not try to charm: Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Narendra Modi, Recep Tayip Erdogan, Victor Orban.

The results, overall, have been poor. Sometimes Macron has been eaten, diplomatically-speaking. Years of trying to smooth-talk Vladimir Putin – with invitations to Versailles and the presidential retreat at Fort Brégancon and the long-table talks in the Kremlin – ended in disillusion and humiliation.

Macron’s attempts to create a blokeish friendship with Boris Johnson ended in cross-Channel exchanges of insults and accusations. His mission to find a core, reasonable Donald Trump ended in the discovery that there was no reasonable Donald Trump, just a self-obsessed, shallow deal-maker or deal-breaker.

And now President Xi Jinping of China. The two presidents and their wives are on an away-day to the French Pyrenees (Tuesday), visiting a region dear to Macron since his childhood.

The first day of Xi’s French state visit in Paris yesterday seems to have produced very little. The Chinese president promised to send no arms to Russia but that is a long-standing promise that he has, technically-speaking, kept.

Xi is reported to have promised to restrict sales to Moscow of “secondary materials” which can be used to make arms. We will see.

The Chinese leader also agreed to support Macron’s call for an “Olympic truce” in Ukraine and elsewhere for the duration of the Paris games in late July and August. Good luck with that.

On the gathering menace of a trade war between the EU and China, no progress was made. As a minimal concession to his French hosts, Xi promised to drop threatened dumping duties on French Cognac and Armagnac sales to China.

Otherwise, Xi said that he could not see a problem. Cheap Chinese-built electric cars and solar panels and steel are swamping the EU market? All the better for the European fight against inflation and global warming.

READ MORE: How ‘Battery Valley’ is changing northern France

Maybe more will be achieved in shirt-sleeves in the Pyrenees today. The Chinese leadership is said to approve of Macron or at least believe that he is useful to them.

Beijing likes the French President’s arguments, renewed in a speech last month, that the EU should become a “strategic” commercial and military power in its own right and not a “vassal” of the United States. The Chinese leadership evidently has no fear of the EU becoming a rival power. It sees Macron’s ideas for a “Europe puissance” as a useful way of dividing the West and weakening the strength of Washington, the dollar and “western values”.

Macron has sometimes encouraged this way of thinking, perhaps accidentally. After his state visit to China last year, he gave a rambling media interview in which he seemed to say that the EU had no interest in being “followers of the US” or defending Taiwan from Chinese aggression. He had to amend his words later.

That was Macron at his worst, an ad-lib, stand-up diplomat who ignores advice from the professionals in the Quai d’Orsay. I would argue, however, that the wider Macron argument – the EU must become more powerful or die – is the French President at his best.

Few other politicians in the world think ahead so much as Macron does. Democratic politics is mired in short-termism. Only autocrats like Xi or Putin can afford to think in terms of decades or centuries.

Macron likes to look around corners. He is often a better thinker than he is a diplomat or practical, daily politician.

His core argument – made in his Sorbonne speech last month and an interview with The Economist – is that Europe faces an unprecedented triple threat to its values, its security and its future prosperity.  

The rise of intolerant populist-nationalism threatens the values and institutions implanted in Europe after World War Two. The aggression of Russia and the detachment of the US (not just Donald Trump) threatens Europe’s security. The abandonment of global rules on fair trade – by Joe Biden’s US as well as Xi’s China – threatens to destroy European industry and sources of prosperity.

READ MORE: OPINION – Macron must earn the role of ’21st-century Churchill’

Civilisations, like people, are mortal, Macron says. Unless the EU and the wider democratic Europe (yes, you post-Brexit Britain) address these problems there is a danger that European civilisation (not just the EU experiment) could die.

Exaggerated? Maybe. But the problems are all real. Macron’s solutions are a powerful European defence alliance within Nato and targeted European protectionism and investment for the industries of the future.

The chances of those things being agreed by in time to make a difference are non-existent to small. In France, as elsewhere, these big “strategic” questions scarcely figure in popular concerns in the European election campaign.

Emmanuel Macron has now been president for seven years. His remaining three years in office will be something between disjointed and paralysed.

It is too early to write his political obituary but the Xi visit and the Sorbonne speech offer the likely main components. Macron will, I fear, be remembered as a visionary thinker and flawed diplomat/politician.

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