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UKRAINE

Nord Stream 2 stop leaves German Russia policy ‘in pieces’

After President Vladimir Putin's latest move to escalate tensions in Ukraine, Germany is facing up to its dependence on Russian gas and the failure of its decades-long attempts to cooperate with Moscow.

Nord Stream 2 stop leaves German Russia policy 'in pieces'
Part of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Stefan Sauer

Putin’s recognition of two breakaway regions in Ukraine prompted Western countries to respond with a raft of sanctions, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz pulling the plug on the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia.

Moscow’s aggressive steps had “changed” the situation, Scholz said, and thrown into question Germany’s energy security if it continued to rely on Russia.

Amid growing friction with the West over the last year, restricted deliveries of gas from Russia sent prices for energy to multi-year highs.

Having announced a stepwise withdrawal from nuclear energy after Japan’s Fukushima disaster in 2011, Germany is highly reliant on gas, with the fuel making up 26.7 percent of its mix.

The majority of those supplies, in turn, come from Russia over pipelines running through Ukraine, Poland and under the Baltic Sea.

When asked on Wednesday on public radio whether Europe’s largest economy could do without Russian gas should the taps be turned off as tensions climb, the minister for economy, energy and climate, Robert Habeck, said “yes, it can”.

Ending the dependence would however “drive prices higher”, Habeck said, causing a serious headache for consumers who have already seen their energy bills rise precipitously.

READ ALSO: How will the Nord Stream 2 freeze affect Germany’s gas supplies and prices?

‘Fatal mistake’

Despite opposition from the United States and other allies, Germany stood firmly behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project until recently.

As tensions mounted at the start of the year, Scholz was reproached for failing to explicitly name a stop to the controversial project among possible sanctions.

But he called time on the project’s approval process on Tuesday, and with it Germany’s more sympathetic diplomatic stance towards Moscow, which held out the possibility of working together.

The Russia policy pursued during former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 16 years in office until 2021 was a “fatal mistake” the tabloid-style Bild said after the reversal.

Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel

Russian president Vladimir Putin presents former chancellor Angela Merkel with flowers at one of her last state visits in August 2021. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/Bundesregierung | Guido Bergmann

Instead of taking Putin’s aggression seriously, Merkel and her foreign minister, now president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier had “let everything go”, the paper said.

With the recognition of the breakaway regions, “decades of German foreign policy lay in pieces”, the daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung wrote.

The “special role” that leaders in Berlin had assumed in negotiations with Russia while trying to broker a solution with Ukraine had produced little.

The economic carrots — such as Nord Stream 2 approval — that had been dangled in front of Moscow came to look like a stick for Germany’s own back.

READ ALSO: OPINION: Germany has scuppered Nord Stream 2 but there are questions left to answer

Renewables shift

The latest crisis leaves not only Germany’s diplomatic stance towards Moscow but also the government’s key priority of energy policy ripe for reevaluation.

The coalition between the Social Democrats, Greens and the liberal FDP had resolved to make massive investments in the move towards renewable energy, while using gas to bridge the gap.

Germany’s gas supplies were “assured” in the short term despite the halt to Nord Stream 2, Claudia Kemfert from the DIW think-tank said.

However a total end to gas deliveries from Russia would require “considerable efforts to make up the difference”, she said.

A possible alternative was to build terminals for the delivery of liquified natural gas directly from countries such as the United States, Qatar or Canada, Kemfert said.

No such installations exist at the moment, though Habeck has previously raised the possibility of expediting the approval of their construction to diversify gas supplies.

“The best answer is the build up of renewables and significant energy-saving measures,” Kemfert said.

By Sebastian Ash

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GERMANY AND UKRAINE

What a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for Germany

For German residents, there is reason to fear a Russian victory in Ukraine. A new mass exodus of refugees would create bottlenecks in housing, childcare and schools, among other issues.

What a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for Germany

Recent news from Ukraine has been bleak. The surge in missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian power plants over recent weeks has plunged whole districts of the capital into darkness for hours on end.

Kyiv has outlined a five-point strategy to weather the storm, including electricity rationing, urging help from abroad, receiving more air defence systems, and overhauling the grid.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week said Ukraine needed “quick” and “cost-effective” repair work ahead of winter.

“We need your equipment and financial support to respond now and maintain normal life,” he told a reconstruction conference in Berlin.

While a plan to use frozen Russian assets for war-torn Ukraine dominates G7 talks in Italy on Thursday, there are voices in Germany – especially among the far-right AfD party – that would rather Germany cut off all its support for Ukraine. But these pro-Russian positions, veiled as arguments for peace, tend to ignore how dramatically a Russian victory in Ukraine would shake Germany.

An investigation by Tagesspiegel looked at what exactly a Russian victory would mean for people living in Germany. Here are the main impacts.

Germany would need to dramatically increase military spending

Andreas Schwarz, the SPD budgeter responsible for the defence budget has warned that if Ukraine lost the war, Germany would be forced to spend even more money on defence in one fell swoop.

Russia would suddenly be at the NATO border in Europe feeling militarily superior.

German defence expert Roderich Kiesewetter suggests that Germany would run out of ammunition after a few days in the event of a direct war. Kiesewetter has called for at least three percent of Germany’s gross domestic product to be invested in armaments.

Germany has made efforts to up its defence spending recently, but it is still unclear if the country will maintain a two percent GDP target for defence spending going forward.

But a sense of urgent need to ramp up Germany’s military defences does seem to be growing. On Wednesday Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced a plan to bring back conscription to the armed forces.

Recently, former British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey estimated that a Ukrainian defeat would cost the West collectively trillions of dollars.

READ ALSO: Is Germany gearing up to reintroduce compulsory military service?

Pistorius with members of the army

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (centre left) and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (centre right) stand with Ukrainian and German soldiers during a visit to a military training area in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, north-eastern Germany, on June 11, 2024. Photo by Jens Büttner / POOL / AFP

Higher prices

Ukraine is one of the largest agricultural exporters in the world and also has stocks of rare earths and critical minerals.

A Russian takeover of the country would likely spell massive price fluctuations for goods like Ukrainian grain – which would spell increased grocery prices in Germany as a start, according to many economic projections.

More war refugees in Europe

Migration researcher Gerald Knaus told the Tagesspiegel that a Russian victory in Ukraine could “turn another ten million people into refugees”.

In parts of eastern Ukraine, such as the metropolis of Kharkiv, Russia has been wearing down peoples’ will to stay with near constant bombardment. 

Hundreds of thousands of people living there regularly go without electricity due to destroyed substations and infrastructure. Kharkiv alone is home to 1.3 million, including 200,000 internally displaced persons.

According to Eurostat, since the beginning of the war, 4.3 million Ukrainians have fled to neighbouring European countries. At 1.27 million, Germany has taken in the majority.

READ ALSO: Two years later, two Berlin residents from Ukraine on how war affects their lives

Germany’s interior ministries don’t expect tensions to ease soon. The Federal Office for Migration (BAMF) continues its efforts to distribute refugees across the country, but there is no doubt that in many places resources are running thin.

Helmut Dedy, Chief Executive of the Association of German Cities has called on federal and state governments to provide more facilities.

Increased pressure on the welfare system

Many refugees from Ukraine, and indeed many refugees broadly, are dependent on state benefits for some period of time after arriving in Germany.

As of January the employment rate among refugees from Ukraine was around 25 percent. In December of last year 710,000 Ukrainians received citizen’s allowance.

Refugees are obliged to apply for a work permit in Germany before they can join the workforce. Additionally they face a language barrier, and many of their professional qualifications may not be immediately recognised.

School and day care spots running thin

Since the outbreak of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nearly 220,000 children and young people who have fled the country have enrolled in German educational institutions.

So far German states have managed to handle the situation relatively quietly, but there is reason to believe that further stress on the system would be more than it can take.

A Ukrainian student in a German classroom

A name badge with an Ukrainian name seen in an international class at the Max-Ernst comprehensive school (Gesamtschule) in Cologne. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)

The president of the North Rhine-Westphalian Teachers’ Association suggests that the region he represents is already at its limit.

The German Association of Cities and Towns and the Association of Towns and Municipalities (DStGB) have also identified a shortage of school and day care places, as well as shortages of language courses and staff for integration services.

Germany’s educational system has already shown signs of stress – in the form of teachers’ strikes and school dropouts – before an additional influx of students are added into the mix.

Exacerbating the housing shortage

In response to the initial wave of incoming Ukrainian refugees, a section of the Building Code was enacted which allowed for the construction of new refugee accommodation without a development plan.

In some places, especially in parts of eastern Germany with growing vacancies, the influx of Ukrainians actually helped to stabilise the housing market.

But in cities where a severe shortage of housing has already been growing for years, there is no doubt that any number of incoming residents only adds stress.

Such is not only the case in popular cities like Berlin, Hamburg or Munich. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for example, the local Ministry of the Interior sees municipalities facing a major challenge in providing housing.

READ ALSO: ‘Tense housing situation’: Why a Berlin renter can’t be evicted for two years

German defence expert Roderich Kiesewetter emphasises that the aforementioned impacts on German life are not yet a foregone conclusion. He told Tagesspiegel that Ukraine could still defend itself and restore its 1991 borders according to international law, “But only if we support them accordingly and stop setting red lines for Ukraine and us”.

With reporting by AFP.

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