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ANALYSIS: What makes a winning French presidential candidate

The common touch, smart media strategy, a reputation as a good lover? We asked the experts what is the secret ingredient for a successful French presidential bid.

Emmanuel Macron gives  a speech
Emmanuel Macron became president of France after creating his own political movement. Photo by Ludovic MARIN / POOL / AFP)

The French go to the polls next year to elect the person who will lead them for the next five years. 

France voted for its first president in 1848 and since then, all of the country’s leaders have been white and male – so besides a melanin deficiency and a penis, what do the candidates need in order to win? 

READ ALSO Five minutes to understand France’s 2022 presidential elections

A political movement 

Belonging to a political party or movement is key to a successful bid according to Émeric Bréhier, director of the political observatory at the Jean Jaurès Foundation and a former socialist MP – although not necessarily one of the traditional parties. 

“Belonging to a structured organisation is important – it shows that you are not alone,” he said. 

But this doesn’t rule out people who don’t belong to the two traditional political parties in France, Les Républicains and Parti Socialiste – Macron is the classic example of a politician who created his own grassroots movement, while his former prime minister Edouard Philippe – widely tipped to run in 2027 – has also recently created a political movement. 

When Macron created En Marche, in 2016, this was seen as a sign that he was serious about becoming a presidential candidate, explained Bréhier.

“He showed that a Mr Nobody could become President of the Republic. Once the Macron comet started to rise, it created a political structure very quickly.”

Although political parties in France have smaller memberships than in some other European countries, they allow candidates to draw on pooled expertise. 

“You need to have people who know how to campaign. There are also legal questions – you need people who know the election rules. You need people who know how to book rally venues, of which there are not many in France. If you don’t book them well in advance, there is no space. You need people to campaign for you across the country, organise meetings, run the logistics and print posters. All of this is extremely important,” said Bréhier. 

Belonging to a political party, particularly one of the traditional established ones, is also useful when it comes to collecting the 500 signatures from elected officials necessary to get onto the ballot.

It also helps attract campaign financing. 

READ ALSO Who’s who in the crowded field vying to unseat Macron?

A great but humble figure 

To win a presidential election in France, you must show that you are a heroic figure worth of the role – while simultaneously being relatable and down-to-earth, according to Bruno Cautrès, a political scientist. 

“Charles De Gaulle may have been the original inspiration for leaders of the fifth republic but the model of strong, authoritative, leaders goes back much further in time – France is the country of Napoleon and Louis XIV even,” he said. “Candidates have to show that they are the only person for the job. They have to show that they can incarnate the role of President.”

At the last election Macron presented himself as a youthful candidate with the energy needed to reform France and stamped his authority as soon as he entered office. 

“We saw this through gestures such as the handshake with Donald Trump and refusing to back down to the head of the army [General Pierre de Villiers, who resigned following proposed spending cuts in 2017],” said Cautrès. 

Macron’s vulnerability this time around may be the perception that he is out of touch. 

“Over the past 20 or 30 years, another characteristic has become important: relatability. It is important for candidates to show that they are close to the general population. François Hollande was very strong in this respect,” said Cautrès. 

“Macron’s inability to understand the people has been seen as his weakness from the beginning. We have seen throughout his mandate that he is not in touch with French people.” 

READ ALSO How to register and cast your vote in France

Strong political messaging and media strategy

France has more political programmes on TV and the radio than most other European countries. Knowing how to navigate the media plays an important role in winning elections, according to Claire Sécail, a social scientist specialising in political communication. 

“You need to have visibility, control of the narrative and a strong individual personality,” she said. “Each candidate runs their media strategy differently. Some will bring in professionals. Others rely more on personal connections with people working in the media.” 

In the last presidential election, Macron ran a highly effective media strategy according to Sécail. 

As a minister in the Hollande government, he made a point of engaging with international media to sell his image. In 2015, he began engaging more intensely with domestic French media, before launching his party. As campaigning began, Macron made a point of giving interviews to small regional outlets as long as the leading nationals. 

“Macron could count on his network of leading figures in French media. He had support from the publishing houses – remember that the media is also a business and that there was a certain entrepreneurial logic there too,” she said.

Running as a relative outsider from outside the traditional parties, as Macron did, can be beneficial. 

“In journalism, people become very quickly interested in new faces. The big losers are the traditional parties,” said Sécail.

In 2017 much of the buzz was around ‘new boy’ Macron, this time early press coverage has focused on far-right political pundit Eric Zemmour, who is making his first foray into elections (although he has not yet declared as a candidate). As a long-time TV pundit, he is also able to draw on personal connections in the media.

Virile masculinity

As mentioned, France has never had a female president, and experts that The Local has previously spoken to say this is unlikely to change in 2022.

READ ALSO Why has there never been a female president of France?

One reason mentioned for this was the image of the president – who is the head of state and nominal leader of the army as well as the government – as a virile leader of men.

“We have this image of the president as a solitary man with a reputation for being a powerful lover,” said Sandrine Lévêque, a professor at Sciences Po Lille.

“This virility is seen as a composite part of power. The woman that Emmanuel Macron loves is an older woman. Because of sexism, this led some to accuse him of being gay and having sexual adventures with men. He was obligated to argue otherwise.” 

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JOHN LICHFIELD

OPINION: Macron’s attempts to tame world leaders shows he’s more a thinker than a diplomat

French President Emmanuel Macron's flawed efforts to charm the world's autocratic and populist leaders have previously ended in failure or even humiliation. Taking the Chinese president to the Pyrenees won't change that record, writes John Lichfield.

OPINION: Macron's attempts to tame world leaders shows he's more a thinker than a diplomat

Emmanuel Macron used to fancy himself as a lion-tamer.

There wasn’t a murderous dictator or mendacious populist that the French President would not try to charm: Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Narendra Modi, Recep Tayip Erdogan, Victor Orban.

The results, overall, have been poor. Sometimes Macron has been eaten, diplomatically-speaking. Years of trying to smooth-talk Vladimir Putin – with invitations to Versailles and the presidential retreat at Fort Brégancon and the long-table talks in the Kremlin – ended in disillusion and humiliation.

Macron’s attempts to create a blokeish friendship with Boris Johnson ended in cross-Channel exchanges of insults and accusations. His mission to find a core, reasonable Donald Trump ended in the discovery that there was no reasonable Donald Trump, just a self-obsessed, shallow deal-maker or deal-breaker.

And now President Xi Jinping of China. The two presidents and their wives are on an away-day to the French Pyrenees (Tuesday), visiting a region dear to Macron since his childhood.

The first day of Xi’s French state visit in Paris yesterday seems to have produced very little. The Chinese president promised to send no arms to Russia but that is a long-standing promise that he has, technically-speaking, kept.

Xi is reported to have promised to restrict sales to Moscow of “secondary materials” which can be used to make arms. We will see.

The Chinese leader also agreed to support Macron’s call for an “Olympic truce” in Ukraine and elsewhere for the duration of the Paris games in late July and August. Good luck with that.

On the gathering menace of a trade war between the EU and China, no progress was made. As a minimal concession to his French hosts, Xi promised to drop threatened dumping duties on French Cognac and Armagnac sales to China.

Otherwise, Xi said that he could not see a problem. Cheap Chinese-built electric cars and solar panels and steel are swamping the EU market? All the better for the European fight against inflation and global warming.

READ MORE: How ‘Battery Valley’ is changing northern France

Maybe more will be achieved in shirt-sleeves in the Pyrenees today. The Chinese leadership is said to approve of Macron or at least believe that he is useful to them.

Beijing likes the French President’s arguments, renewed in a speech last month, that the EU should become a “strategic” commercial and military power in its own right and not a “vassal” of the United States. The Chinese leadership evidently has no fear of the EU becoming a rival power. It sees Macron’s ideas for a “Europe puissance” as a useful way of dividing the West and weakening the strength of Washington, the dollar and “western values”.

Macron has sometimes encouraged this way of thinking, perhaps accidentally. After his state visit to China last year, he gave a rambling media interview in which he seemed to say that the EU had no interest in being “followers of the US” or defending Taiwan from Chinese aggression. He had to amend his words later.

That was Macron at his worst, an ad-lib, stand-up diplomat who ignores advice from the professionals in the Quai d’Orsay. I would argue, however, that the wider Macron argument – the EU must become more powerful or die – is the French President at his best.

Few other politicians in the world think ahead so much as Macron does. Democratic politics is mired in short-termism. Only autocrats like Xi or Putin can afford to think in terms of decades or centuries.

Macron likes to look around corners. He is often a better thinker than he is a diplomat or practical, daily politician.

His core argument – made in his Sorbonne speech last month and an interview with The Economist – is that Europe faces an unprecedented triple threat to its values, its security and its future prosperity.  

The rise of intolerant populist-nationalism threatens the values and institutions implanted in Europe after World War Two. The aggression of Russia and the detachment of the US (not just Donald Trump) threatens Europe’s security. The abandonment of global rules on fair trade – by Joe Biden’s US as well as Xi’s China – threatens to destroy European industry and sources of prosperity.

READ MORE: OPINION – Macron must earn the role of ’21st-century Churchill’

Civilisations, like people, are mortal, Macron says. Unless the EU and the wider democratic Europe (yes, you post-Brexit Britain) address these problems there is a danger that European civilisation (not just the EU experiment) could die.

Exaggerated? Maybe. But the problems are all real. Macron’s solutions are a powerful European defence alliance within Nato and targeted European protectionism and investment for the industries of the future.

The chances of those things being agreed by in time to make a difference are non-existent to small. In France, as elsewhere, these big “strategic” questions scarcely figure in popular concerns in the European election campaign.

Emmanuel Macron has now been president for seven years. His remaining three years in office will be something between disjointed and paralysed.

It is too early to write his political obituary but the Xi visit and the Sorbonne speech offer the likely main components. Macron will, I fear, be remembered as a visionary thinker and flawed diplomat/politician.

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