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Security and money: French centre-right candidates clash in TV debates

French right-wing presidential candidates vying to clinch the nomination for the Republicans party took aim at President Emmanuel Macron on Monday in the first of several televised debates they hope will energise their flagging campaigns.

From left, candidates Michel Barnier, Valerie Pecresse, Philippe Juvin, Eric Ciotti and Xavier Bertrand
From left, candidates Michel Barnier, Valerie Pecresse, Philippe Juvin, Eric Ciotti and Xavier Bertrand Photo: Bertrand Guay/AFP

More than 100,000 card-carrying members of the party, which traces its roots back to post-war leader Charles de Gaulle, will choose their nominee at a congress on December 4th.

Five candidates took part in three hours of debate on Monday night that saw broad consensus on traditional right-wing themes such as immigration, delinquency and radical Islam – as well as the perceived inadequacies of Macron.

READ ALSO Who’s who in the crowded field vying to beat Macron?

Former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier called security “the main failure of this presidential term”, while regional leader Valérie Pécresse accused the 43-year-old head of state of “burning up our cash” with his management of the Covid-19 crisis.

Xavier Bertrand, seen by the party’s rank-and-file as the most credible candidate before the debate, blamed Macron for the emergence of far-right pundit Eric Zemmour whose radical rhetoric has shaken up the presidential race.

“French people want to turn the page on Macron because he’s failed. I’m convinced I’m the one who can beat him. It’s not the extremes that can beat him,” Bertrand concluded.

Polls currently suggest that none of Les Républicains (LR) candidates will make it past the first round of the two-stage election in what would mark another crushing setback for a party which counts de Gaulle, Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy as past presidents.

Macron is widely seen as the favourite to win next April, though analysts warn that the election remains highly unpredictable.

Part of the problem for LR is the number of defections of senior figures over the last five years to Macron’s centrist camp, while Zemmour is also seen as draining conservatives away from the party, analysts say.

Sarkozy, who remains popular among right-wing voters, has been convicted twice this year, effectively ending any chances he has of attempting another comeback after a first failed try five years ago.

In the run-up to the debate, Barnier had benefited from a flurry of positive headlines about his chances of clinching the nomination for LR, with some media reports referring to him as favourite.

Supporters had promoted the 70-year-old as a possible “French Joe Biden” – a moderate, grey-haired statesman capable of uniting his divided political family.

In one of few clashes, he was attacked by Pécresse and Bertrand over his proposal for a moratorium on immigration, which he revealed would mean merely reductions in the number of visas granted to foreigners, rather than zero immigration.

“My friends are pretending to not understand my moratorium,” he complained.

Of the three leading candidates, Bertrand, the moderate head of the northern Hauts-de-France region, is seen by 54 percent of LR members as “in a position to win the presidency”, according to a poll released Monday.

Only 26 percent saw Barnier as best placed, and 16 percent favoured Pécresse, the head of the greater Paris region.

But Bertrand publicly quit the party in 2017 and had intended to shun the primary and run as an independent, only to relent last month under pressure.

Analysts say this could count against him in the nominating process, whereas Barnier is seen as having shown loyalty to the party over a decades-long career that has taken him from his home in the French Alps to Paris and then Brussels.

In 2017, the party suffered humiliation and disappointment when its presidential candidate, Francois Fillon, became embroiled in multiple financial scandals which saw the hardline former prime minister eliminated in the first round.

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JOHN LICHFIELD

OPINION: Macron’s attempts to tame world leaders shows he’s more a thinker than a diplomat

French President Emmanuel Macron's flawed efforts to charm the world's autocratic and populist leaders have previously ended in failure or even humiliation. Taking the Chinese president to the Pyrenees won't change that record, writes John Lichfield.

OPINION: Macron's attempts to tame world leaders shows he's more a thinker than a diplomat

Emmanuel Macron used to fancy himself as a lion-tamer.

There wasn’t a murderous dictator or mendacious populist that the French President would not try to charm: Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Narendra Modi, Recep Tayip Erdogan, Victor Orban.

The results, overall, have been poor. Sometimes Macron has been eaten, diplomatically-speaking. Years of trying to smooth-talk Vladimir Putin – with invitations to Versailles and the presidential retreat at Fort Brégancon and the long-table talks in the Kremlin – ended in disillusion and humiliation.

Macron’s attempts to create a blokeish friendship with Boris Johnson ended in cross-Channel exchanges of insults and accusations. His mission to find a core, reasonable Donald Trump ended in the discovery that there was no reasonable Donald Trump, just a self-obsessed, shallow deal-maker or deal-breaker.

And now President Xi Jinping of China. The two presidents and their wives are on an away-day to the French Pyrenees (Tuesday), visiting a region dear to Macron since his childhood.

The first day of Xi’s French state visit in Paris yesterday seems to have produced very little. The Chinese president promised to send no arms to Russia but that is a long-standing promise that he has, technically-speaking, kept.

Xi is reported to have promised to restrict sales to Moscow of “secondary materials” which can be used to make arms. We will see.

The Chinese leader also agreed to support Macron’s call for an “Olympic truce” in Ukraine and elsewhere for the duration of the Paris games in late July and August. Good luck with that.

On the gathering menace of a trade war between the EU and China, no progress was made. As a minimal concession to his French hosts, Xi promised to drop threatened dumping duties on French Cognac and Armagnac sales to China.

Otherwise, Xi said that he could not see a problem. Cheap Chinese-built electric cars and solar panels and steel are swamping the EU market? All the better for the European fight against inflation and global warming.

READ MORE: How ‘Battery Valley’ is changing northern France

Maybe more will be achieved in shirt-sleeves in the Pyrenees today. The Chinese leadership is said to approve of Macron or at least believe that he is useful to them.

Beijing likes the French President’s arguments, renewed in a speech last month, that the EU should become a “strategic” commercial and military power in its own right and not a “vassal” of the United States. The Chinese leadership evidently has no fear of the EU becoming a rival power. It sees Macron’s ideas for a “Europe puissance” as a useful way of dividing the West and weakening the strength of Washington, the dollar and “western values”.

Macron has sometimes encouraged this way of thinking, perhaps accidentally. After his state visit to China last year, he gave a rambling media interview in which he seemed to say that the EU had no interest in being “followers of the US” or defending Taiwan from Chinese aggression. He had to amend his words later.

That was Macron at his worst, an ad-lib, stand-up diplomat who ignores advice from the professionals in the Quai d’Orsay. I would argue, however, that the wider Macron argument – the EU must become more powerful or die – is the French President at his best.

Few other politicians in the world think ahead so much as Macron does. Democratic politics is mired in short-termism. Only autocrats like Xi or Putin can afford to think in terms of decades or centuries.

Macron likes to look around corners. He is often a better thinker than he is a diplomat or practical, daily politician.

His core argument – made in his Sorbonne speech last month and an interview with The Economist – is that Europe faces an unprecedented triple threat to its values, its security and its future prosperity.  

The rise of intolerant populist-nationalism threatens the values and institutions implanted in Europe after World War Two. The aggression of Russia and the detachment of the US (not just Donald Trump) threatens Europe’s security. The abandonment of global rules on fair trade – by Joe Biden’s US as well as Xi’s China – threatens to destroy European industry and sources of prosperity.

READ MORE: OPINION – Macron must earn the role of ’21st-century Churchill’

Civilisations, like people, are mortal, Macron says. Unless the EU and the wider democratic Europe (yes, you post-Brexit Britain) address these problems there is a danger that European civilisation (not just the EU experiment) could die.

Exaggerated? Maybe. But the problems are all real. Macron’s solutions are a powerful European defence alliance within Nato and targeted European protectionism and investment for the industries of the future.

The chances of those things being agreed by in time to make a difference are non-existent to small. In France, as elsewhere, these big “strategic” questions scarcely figure in popular concerns in the European election campaign.

Emmanuel Macron has now been president for seven years. His remaining three years in office will be something between disjointed and paralysed.

It is too early to write his political obituary but the Xi visit and the Sorbonne speech offer the likely main components. Macron will, I fear, be remembered as a visionary thinker and flawed diplomat/politician.

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