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POLITICS

What is behind the diplomatic spat between France and Algeria?

A row over visas between France and Algeria, its former colony, has escalated quickly. Some rather undiplomatic comments from President Macron didn't help.

President Macron's description of Algeria as a
(Photo by Michel Euler / POOL / AFP)

The diplomatic discord between Algeria and France deepened on Sunday after Algiers banned French military planes from its airspace, its latest response to a row over visas and critical comments from President Emmanuel Macron.

France’s jets regularly fly over the former French colony to reach the Sahel region of western Africa, where its soldiers are helping to battle jihadist insurgents as part of its Barkhane operation.

“This morning when we filed flight plans for two planes, we learned that the Algerians had stopped flights over their territory by French military planes,” an army spokesman, Colonel Pascal Ianni, told AFP.

He said the decision had “slightly impacted” supply flights but “does not affect our operations” in the Sahel.

The French intelligence-gathering operations in the Sahel using Reaper drones were affected by the new restrictions, Ianni added. Those drones operate out of Niamey in Niger and do not fly over Algeria.

The army had received no official notification of the flight ban, he added.

But the move heightened tensions that had already flared Saturday when the Algerian government recalled its ambassador to France, citing “inadmissible interference” in its affairs.

According to French and Algerian media reports, Macron told descendants of figures in Algeria’s 1954-62 war for independence that the country was ruled by a “political-military system” that had “totally re-written” its history.

“You can see that the Algerian system is tired, it has been weakened by the Hirak,” he added, referring to the pro-democracy movement that forced Abdelaziz Bouteflika from power in 2019 after two decades at the helm.

READ MORE: Macron: No apology for French abuses in Algeria

Macron’s office did not deny the reported comments, but said the president was discussing the war in Algeria with French youths and answering questions, not giving an official interview.

Ianni said there had been no official notification of the flight ban, and the French foreign ministry, contacted by AFP, declined to comment.

– Visa protest –

Last year, the Algerian government criminalised the dissemination of what it considers “false news” that harms national unity.

Saturday’s ambassador recall was the second time it had done so, having taken a similar response in May 2020 after French media broadcast a documentary about the Hirak movement.

Algerian officials have cracked down on efforts to revive the pro-democracy protests, and rights groups say dozens of people linked to it have been jailed in recent months.

Algiers was also angered last week after France said it would sharply reduce the number of visas it grants to citizens of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.

Paris said the decision had been made necessary by the former colonies’ failure to do enough to allow illegal migrants in France to be returned.

READ MORE: France slashes visas for Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia in migrant row

When a French court denies a person’s visa request, authorities must still secure a consular travel pass from his or her home country in order to forcibly expel them, a document that Paris says Algiers, Rabat and Tunis are largely refusing to provide.

Macron has reportedly ordered the number of visa deliveries to Algeria and Morocco to be halved from 2020 levels, and by a third for Tunisia.

The Algerian foreign ministry summoned France’s ambassador Francois Gouyette on Wednesday to make a “formal protest” of the visa ruling.

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FRENCH ELECTIONS

Coalition, resignation or shared rule? The possible outcomes of France’s snap elections

The latest polling in France's parliamentary elections shows no party winning an overall majority - so what happens then? Here's a look at the most likely scenarios.

Coalition, resignation or shared rule? The possible outcomes of France's snap elections

French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision to call snap parliamentary elections has plunged the country into severe political uncertainty.

Polls project that none of the three main political camps – the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) or Macron’s centrists – will win enough seats to get an absolute majority in parliament.

One thing seems certain – it’s likely to be very messy indeed. But what are the most likely outcomes if parliament is truly deadlocked?

Listen to the team from The Local discussing the election latest in the Talking France podcast. Listen here or on the link below

Cohabitation

The far-right Rassemblement National of three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and current party leader Jordan Bardella are tipped to be the party with most seats after the second round on July 7th.

If the RN and its allies did secure a majority in the Assemblée Nationale – and current polling suggests this is doubtful – Macron would find himself in a “cohabitation“, in which the president and government are from opposing parties.

Post-war France has experienced three such forced marriages. All were between the left and the centre-right with the last from 1997-2002 between President Jacques Chirac and Socialist premier Lionel Jospin.

Cohabitation: What happens in France’s political ‘forced marriages’?

A cohabition between the Macron and his far-right arch-enemies would likely be a much unhappier affair.

While the far-right would be able to implement part of its domestic programme, on, for example, curtailing immigration, only the president can call a referendum or trigger a vote on constitutional changes.

The president, who usually sets foreign and defence policy, could also find his hands tied if the RN appointed nationalist defence and foreign ministers opposed to his worldview.

Coalition

France has spurned coalitions since the post-war 4th Republic (1946-1958) when the country went through 22 governments in 12 years.

Since losing his parliamentary majority in 2022, Macron has sought to cobble together alliances in parliament on a vote-by-vote basis or to force through legislation without a vote rather than form a pact with another party.

The RN or the left could try do the same if they fall short of a majority but a minority government of the far-right or left would likely fail to pass a vote of no confidence.

Aware of the risks, RN leader Bardella has said he will refuse to become prime minister unless he wins an outright majority.

Macron’s camp hopes that in the event of a hung parliament it could form a coalition with moderates of the left and right.

As part of its outreach to possible allies, Macron’s party has not entered candidates in 67 constituencies where centre-right or centre-left candidates are running.

But Macron has limited his options by putting the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) — the dominant force in the NFP — on a par with the far-right in what he calls the country’s “extremes”. He accuses LFI of anti-Semitism, which it rejects.

Caretaker government

Another option would be for Macron to appoint a technocratic non-partisan government which all parties could get behind.

Camille Bedock, a political scientist at the Emile Durckheim centre in Bordeaux, cites the example of Italy, where respected former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi formed a national unity government in 2021 when Italy was in turmoil. It lasted a year-and-a-half.

Bedock said Macron could also decide to leave the current government headed by his party’s Gabriel Attal in place in a caretaker capacity for a year. He could then call new elections.

This would have the benefit of ensuring continuity through the Olympic Games (July 26th – August 11th) when the country will be under intense global scrutiny.

Whether the far-right or left would support such a move, which would effectively buy Macron time to try turn around his presidency, is highly uncertain.

Macron resigns

The most dramatic scenario would see Macron resign if faced with the prospect of being neutered by the far right or the hard left.

Le Pen, who is expected to try succeed Macron in 2027 presidential polls, has warned that he “will have no choice but to resign” in the event of a “political crisis”.

READ ALSO Will Macron resign in the event of an election disaster?

Macron has vowed to remain on office until the end of his second term in 2027, whatever the outcome.

You can follow all the latest election news HERE or sign up to receive by email our bi-weekly election breakdown

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