COPY LINK

For members

POLITICS

Norwegian election: Which parties could hit the ‘sperregrense’ jackpot?

What is 'sperregrense' and why could it have a massive impact on today's Norwegian election? Here's what you need to know.

Published: 7 September 2021 16:29 CEST

Norwegian election: Which parties could hit the 'sperregrense' jackpot?

A statue outside of Norwegian Parliament. Photo by Arbeiderpartiet/Flickr.

What is Sperregrense?

Sperregrense is a votes threshold that the smaller parties in Norway aspire to hit in every election. The threshold is in place because Norway uses a proportional voting system, meaning seats are awarded proportionally to votes. Thus, a limit was implemented to prevent too many small parties from entering government.

Parties that surpass four percent of total votes nationwide are rewarded with access to levelling seats that ensure parties that do well across Norway but do not win a lot of seats outright are fairly represented in parliament.

If you want to read more coverage on the 2021 Norwegian election from the The Local then you can catch up on everything here.

Why is the threshold important?

To understand why the threshold is essential, we’ll cast a glance at the 2017 election. In the last election, the Green Party received 3.24 percent of all votes and received one seat. In comparison, the Christian Democratic Party received just one percent more of the total vote and received eight seats.

The levelling seats system isn’t just crucial for the smaller parties; it can have a massive impact on the bigger parties and decide which parties may or may not end up in government or whether a prospective government will have a parliamentary majority.

What do the polls say about this years election?

Below we’ve included a chart that used TV2/Kantar’s most up to date election data, as well as projections for how many seats parties could win and how this compares to the last election.

What does this mean?

Overall, it means a considerably more diverse parliament could be on the books, and smaller parties winning more votes and seats from their larger counterparts could have a massive say in this years election.

For example, if the Red Party and the Green Party manage to outperform the polls and take even more votes from the main parties, they could swing the balance of the whole election.

Currently, it is expected that a coalition government of the Labour Party, Centre Party and Socialist Left Party will be formed. However, should the Red Party and Green Party manage to outperform expectations and steal more votes and secure more seats through the levelling system from the other parties on the left, then they could force themselves into government.

This is because current polls are only projecting a Labour, Centre Party, and Socialist Left coalition to secure the slimmest of majorities, meaning that their dreams of majority government hang in the balance and may be dependent on a push from the other parties.

As a result, the Labour Party, Centre Party and Socialist Left Party will hope the Green Party and the Red Party fall short of the threshold to secure a majority and avoid weeks of potentially messy negotiations.

*Labour leader Jonas Gahr Støre, will be hoping the Red and Green parties fall below the threshold to secure his dream coalition. Photo by Arbeiderpartiet/Flickr.*

How could this affect the parties?

Firstly, for the parties hovering around the threshold, reaching the threshold will make a massive difference to the power they will be able to wield in parliament.

For example, receiving just 0.9 percent more of the overall vote compared to the last election will bag the Green Party seven more seats. On the other hand, falling below the threshold could be equally catastrophic for others as the Christian Democratic Party stand to lose five seats in parliament if they fall short of the threshold.

Additionally, the performance of certain parties could signal a shift in the Norwegian political landscape and prove that voters interests are shifting towards issues like the environment.

“I will cheer for any result as long as we are over the threshold. It is really exciting and confirms a trend,” Une Bastholm, leader of the Green Party, said to newspaper VG about the prospect of the green’s breaching the threshold.

Leader of the Red Party, Bjørnar Moxnes, is also relishing the prospect of passing the threshold, and says that this could have a massive impact on policy and is fully aware of the sway the party would hold should the mooted coalition of Labour, the Centre Party and Socialist Left Party fail to secure a majority.

“The Red Party above the limit can be crucial to secure a majority and new policies,” Moxnes told VG.

The Liberal Party reaching the threshold could dent Erna Solberg’s fading chances of clinging on as Prime Minister as the Liberals winning equalising seats will likely prevent more Conservative MPs from being elected. On the other hand, the Liberal’s winning more seats could offer Solberg a lifeline and coalition partner in the event she pulls of a unlikely victory.

How likely are the Red and Green parties to reach the threshold?

Nobody will know until election day as polls are never entirely accurate, and the Green Party, for example, is only just above the threshold. Furthermore, polls are just a snapshot of what the country is thinking and doesn’t always reflect what voters will do on the day.

“The parties must mobilise voters on election day, something they have not been good at in the past. They were both above the threshold in 2017 and then fell below it on election day,” political analyst, Thore Gaard Olaussen from Respons Analyze, said about the Green Party and Red Party to VG.

This is something Red Party Leader Moxnes has also admitted he is apprehensive about.

“I am worried that those who say that they will vote for us do not do so when it actually comes to election day,” Moxnes told VG.

Member comments

Become a Member to leave a comment.

INTERVIEW: 'A lot of people think Brexit is done, but it's not for Brits in Europe'

In the early days of 2021, after the United Kingdom had left the EU and completed the final stage of Brexit, many British citizens returned to their home countries in Europe only to face a grilling at the border.

Though the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) technically guaranteed their right to live and work in the countries they’d settled in before Brexit, there was widespread confusion about these fundamental rights and many were treated like new arrivals.

Over time, the chaos at the airports subsided as border officials and airlines were given clearer guidance on the treatment of Brits. But three years later, a number of Brits who live on the continent still face problems when it comes to proving their post-Brexit rights.

This was the reason campaign group British in Europe decided to set up their new EU-funded ICE project. Starting this year in March, it aims to build valuable connections between UK citizens abroad and mentor the next generation of civil rights advocates around the continent. The acronym stands for ‘Inform, Empower, Connect’ and the project’s organisers describe it as “the first project of its kind”.

“It’s a completely innovative project – especially the fact that it’s across so many countries,” Jane Golding, chair of British in Europe and one of the project’s founders, told The Local.

Bringing together groups from 11 EU member states, the project aims to train up volunteers to understand both the Withdrawal Agreement and EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, as well as learning skills like advocacy and communication, using real-life civil rights cases that are referred to British in Europe.

“The ultimate goal is to amplify the messages across the wider group,” said Golding. “You start with the volunteers, they go back to their groups, then the people that we train, they go back and train people. Then they pass on that knowledge to the wider groups, on their Facebook accounts and through social media, and hopefully it all snowballs, not just in their countries but across the EU.”

‘Far-reaching repercussions’

So many years after Brexit, it’s hard to believe that there’s still a need for a project like ICE that empowers Brits to protect their rights. Indeed, the future of groups like British in Europe and regional groups like British in Germany and British in Spain felt uncertain just a year or two ago.

But Golding says there are still serious issues cropping up for Brits in several countries around Europe – they just have a different quality to the problems that arose at the start.

“In some ways it’s needed even more because as we predicted right at the beginning, at the first stage of implementation, you’ve got the more routine cases,” she explained.

“What we’re seeing now is not as many cases, but when the cases come up, they’re complex. They can have such far-reaching repercussions on people’s lives. And of course, memories start to fade. A lot of people think Brexit is already done, but it’s not.”

Volunteers in British in Europe ICE project

The volunteers of the British in Europe ICE project pose for a photo at the kick-off meeting in Brussels on May 21st, 2024. Photo courtesy of Jane Golding

Though the rights set out in the Withdrawal Agreement apply across the continent, different countries have taken different approaches to implementing them.

That means that while in Germany, for example, UK citizens simply had to declare that they lived in the country, people in neighbouring Denmark had to apply for their rights.

This led to a notorious situation in Denmark in which as many as 2,000 Brits were threatened with deportation after not applying in time or completing the right application process. According to Golding, this had a lot to do with the fact that people who arrived in 2020 weren’t given the same information as other UK migrants who arrived before.

In Sweden, meanwhile, the situation is still difficult for many Brits who lived there prior to Brexit.

“There have been issues with an anomalously high numbers of refusals compared to other countries, and they seem to be taking a very strict approach on late applications,” Golding explained.

Portugal has been another difficult case. Although the country opted for a declaratory system where Brits could simply exchange old residence documents for a new ID card after Brexit, reports suggest that the authorities have taken years to issue these cards, leaving many of the some 34,000 Brits in the country in limbo.

“While people are still waiting to have their status confirmed and have their card in their hand, it’s difficult to access a whole range of services, like health services, or applying for jobs or dealing with the authorities, or even going to the bank,” Golding said. “All of these problems just affect people’s lives.”

A French border guard checks a passport at the border

A French border guard checks a passport at the border. Photo by DENIS CHARLET / AFP

There are also concerns about the EU’s new exit and entry system (EES), due to come into force in October, which is based on biometric documentation.

“We still do not have clear data on how many people in declaratory countries like Germany, where it wasn’t compulsory to apply for the card, don’t actually have a card,” Golding said. “How is that going to play out if it’s a document-based digitalised system?”

A lack of support

In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, funding from the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) was still available to support NGOs in Europe helping Brits with their migration and civil rights issues. But that temporary funding soon expired, leaving groups like British in Europe largely on their own.

“The whole point is people’s lives change at very different paces,” Golding said. “And now this project is really going to start to pick up some of those cases and report on those issues, which is really crucial and exciting for the precedent that it sets, and it’s very clearly necessary still, because people don’t just sort their lives in the 18 months that the FCDO chose to supply that funding.”

This feeling of being left alone and increasingly isolated from the UK is one that many Brits in Europe have felt in the aftermath of Brexit. But the upcoming UK election on July 4th could be a game-changer.

This time, following a change in the law, Brits who have lived abroad for more than 15 years will be able to vote for the first time.

Polling station in the UK

A polling station in the UK. Photo by Elliott Stallion on Unsplash

When it comes to the election, the message from British in Europe is clear: “Make your voice count now, make your vote count, make sure you use it,” Golding said.

With the June 18th registration deadline fast approaching, BiE is advising UK citizens abroad to apply for a proxy vote as soon as possible, rather than relying on a postal vote from abroad. Since the 15-year rule was abolished on January 16th, more than 100,000 British citizens have registered to vote, according to official statistics. It is unclear how many were registered before the change in the law.

With an estimated 5.5 million Brits currently living abroad – 1.3 million of whom are in the EU – this could have a significant impact on the electoral landscape, Golding says. But most significantly, the change is creating a feeling of connection and belonging that wasn’t there before.

Nurturing this sense of belonging is one of the main goals of ICE.

With these bridges being built, British in Europe hopes to create a network of support that spans across borders.

“Now we’ve met. We’re going to meet,” said Golding. “We know we’re going to meet again in Berlin in October and then we’ll meet again in the new year in 2025 as well. It means a huge amount because even British in Europe, our steering team, we’ve only met physically three times.”

This opens up the possibility of people sharing their knowledge from country to country, Golding explained.

“There is crossover and the reassurance of having that EU wide view and knowing that you’re not alone and knowing that in this country, we managed to get this solution,” she said. “And then you can go back and say to the authorities in your country, well, in that country they did that – all of that helps. It’s really good.”

SHOW COMMENTS

Url copied to clipboard!