COPY LINK

For members

POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What could Sweden’s next government look like?

After Sweden's prime minister lost a historic no-confidence vote, he faces the choice of speaking to other political parties to build a majority, or calling for fresh elections. The Local looked at the numbers and expert views to find out what we can expect.

Published: 21 June 2021 17:26 CEST
Updated: 22 June 2021 11:17 CEST

ANALYSIS: What could Sweden's next government look like?

Whether Löfven can return as PM hinges on Left Party leader Nooshi Dadgostar (L) and her Centre Party counterpart Annie Lööf reaching a compromise. Photo: Amir Nabizadeh/TT

First, Social Democrat leader Stefan Löfven has a choice: call for snap elections, or resign, sparking a round of talks aimed at forming a new government.

He has seven days to make this decision and in a press conference on Monday said he would first try to form a new government.

Uppsala University researcher Johan Hellström, who specialises in political parties in Sweden, said he thinks snap elections are unlikely due to the risk that they would see the conservative bloc pick up the few extra votes they need to form their own majority.

“First and foremost, I think Löfven will try to find support for a new government and to open for the speaker to start a new talmansrunda. Today, there is really only one option unless The Centre Party changes sides which is quite unlikely. And that is a red/green-Centre majority,” Hellström told The Local.

For a government to be able to form in Sweden, it needs a majority of MPs (at least 175) to either vote in favour of it, or abstain from the vote. Currently, the ruling Social Democrat-Green government count 116 MPs, needing another 59 in order to reach the majority.

At the moment, that support comes from the Centre and Liberal parties in exchange for influence on certain policy decisions (including the issue of market rents which sparked the current crisis) and from the Left Party (which is strongly against some of the policies the government has agreed to, but still prefers a centre-left government to a conservative one).

The Liberal Party has already said it wants a conservative government, so Löfven cannot count on their support. The Left and Centre Party together would contribute 58 votes, meaning that if one of Sweden's two independent MPs also agreed to support Löfven, he could return as PM. That's likely, since one of the two independents, former Left Party MP Amineh Kakabaveh, voted against her former party to support Löfven in Monday's no-confidence vote, giving a speech to say she did not want to vote with the Sweden Democrats.

One of the key reasons for this is the growing influence of the Sweden Democrats. Long shut out of politics as the other parties refused to collaborate with them, this caused problems in 2018 as their rise left both the traditional blocs without a majority -- leading to the January Deal between the government and its former centre-right opposition, which created friction with the Left Party.

Since that election, the Moderates, Christian Democrats and most recently the Liberal Party have opened the door to wider cooperation with the Sweden Democrats.

The Centre Party has refused to be part of a government propped up by the Sweden Democrats, but it has also refused to co-operate directly with the Left Party, putting the centre-left parties in a tough position. The gap between these two parties is what caused the vote of no confidence, and it's the main stumbling block for Löfven as he works to secure a majority now.

On Monday, Löfven would not comment on the Centre and Left Parties working together, saying, "those are two parties that must have their own relationship".

If it is not possible for either Löfven’s Social Democrats or the Moderate Party to form a government, there will be no other option than to have a fresh election.

This would need to happen no more than three months after it is announced, and even if it goes ahead, the scheduled September 2022 election would still take place just one year later.

But it's not in any party's best interest, most commentators believe. Both the Liberal and Green parties are close to falling below the four percent threshold needed to enter parliament, according to recent polls, as the Liberals' move closer to the Sweden Democrats has met with criticism both from voters and within the party.

Jonas Hinnfors, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg, told the TT newswire that a snap election could see the Liberals pick up votes from the Moderate Party to stay in parliament, which could make the Sweden Democrats the largest party on the right.

"It is important for the balance in future government documents that the Moderates will not be smaller than the Sweden Democrats. I think the Moderates would find that very troublesome," he said.

For the right-of-centre bloc, he argued, it would be more beneficial to have more time to prepare before voters next go to the polls, meaning a September 2021 election is in no party's best interest. The only question is whether another alternative turns out to be feasible.

By Catherine Edwards and Isabella Anderson

Member comments

Anonymous - 23 June 2021 at 17:00 CEST

“The Liberal Party has already said it wants a conservative government,…” What does it mean in Sweden when a party that calls itself “liberal” is actively aligning itself with a party that is as far from “liberal” as governing political parties get in Sweden? Also, it seems like the missing puzzle piece in discussions about the machinating of power in the legislature is how to dissuade Swedes from supporting the SD. Is there no movement to address their concerns from within a socialist state perspective? Leaving the task to fear-mongering populists seems like it’s not going very well….

Become a Member to leave a comment.

INTERVIEW: 'A lot of people think Brexit is done, but it's not for Brits in Europe'

In the early days of 2021, after the United Kingdom had left the EU and completed the final stage of Brexit, many British citizens returned to their home countries in Europe only to face a grilling at the border.

Though the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) technically guaranteed their right to live and work in the countries they’d settled in before Brexit, there was widespread confusion about these fundamental rights and many were treated like new arrivals.

Over time, the chaos at the airports subsided as border officials and airlines were given clearer guidance on the treatment of Brits. But three years later, a number of Brits who live on the continent still face problems when it comes to proving their post-Brexit rights.

This was the reason campaign group British in Europe decided to set up their new EU-funded ICE project. Starting this year in March, it aims to build valuable connections between UK citizens abroad and mentor the next generation of civil rights advocates around the continent. The acronym stands for ‘Inform, Empower, Connect’ and the project’s organisers describe it as “the first project of its kind”.

“It’s a completely innovative project – especially the fact that it’s across so many countries,” Jane Golding, chair of British in Europe and one of the project’s founders, told The Local.

Bringing together groups from 11 EU member states, the project aims to train up volunteers to understand both the Withdrawal Agreement and EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, as well as learning skills like advocacy and communication, using real-life civil rights cases that are referred to British in Europe.

“The ultimate goal is to amplify the messages across the wider group,” said Golding. “You start with the volunteers, they go back to their groups, then the people that we train, they go back and train people. Then they pass on that knowledge to the wider groups, on their Facebook accounts and through social media, and hopefully it all snowballs, not just in their countries but across the EU.”

‘Far-reaching repercussions’

So many years after Brexit, it’s hard to believe that there’s still a need for a project like ICE that empowers Brits to protect their rights. Indeed, the future of groups like British in Europe and regional groups like British in Germany and British in Spain felt uncertain just a year or two ago.

But Golding says there are still serious issues cropping up for Brits in several countries around Europe – they just have a different quality to the problems that arose at the start.

“In some ways it’s needed even more because as we predicted right at the beginning, at the first stage of implementation, you’ve got the more routine cases,” she explained.

“What we’re seeing now is not as many cases, but when the cases come up, they’re complex. They can have such far-reaching repercussions on people’s lives. And of course, memories start to fade. A lot of people think Brexit is already done, but it’s not.”

Volunteers in British in Europe ICE project

The volunteers of the British in Europe ICE project pose for a photo at the kick-off meeting in Brussels on May 21st, 2024. Photo courtesy of Jane Golding

Though the rights set out in the Withdrawal Agreement apply across the continent, different countries have taken different approaches to implementing them.

That means that while in Germany, for example, UK citizens simply had to declare that they lived in the country, people in neighbouring Denmark had to apply for their rights.

This led to a notorious situation in Denmark in which as many as 2,000 Brits were threatened with deportation after not applying in time or completing the right application process. According to Golding, this had a lot to do with the fact that people who arrived in 2020 weren’t given the same information as other UK migrants who arrived before.

In Sweden, meanwhile, the situation is still difficult for many Brits who lived there prior to Brexit.

“There have been issues with an anomalously high numbers of refusals compared to other countries, and they seem to be taking a very strict approach on late applications,” Golding explained.

Portugal has been another difficult case. Although the country opted for a declaratory system where Brits could simply exchange old residence documents for a new ID card after Brexit, reports suggest that the authorities have taken years to issue these cards, leaving many of the some 34,000 Brits in the country in limbo.

“While people are still waiting to have their status confirmed and have their card in their hand, it’s difficult to access a whole range of services, like health services, or applying for jobs or dealing with the authorities, or even going to the bank,” Golding said. “All of these problems just affect people’s lives.”

A French border guard checks a passport at the border

A French border guard checks a passport at the border. Photo by DENIS CHARLET / AFP

There are also concerns about the EU’s new exit and entry system (EES), due to come into force in October, which is based on biometric documentation.

“We still do not have clear data on how many people in declaratory countries like Germany, where it wasn’t compulsory to apply for the card, don’t actually have a card,” Golding said. “How is that going to play out if it’s a document-based digitalised system?”

A lack of support

In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, funding from the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) was still available to support NGOs in Europe helping Brits with their migration and civil rights issues. But that temporary funding soon expired, leaving groups like British in Europe largely on their own.

“The whole point is people’s lives change at very different paces,” Golding said. “And now this project is really going to start to pick up some of those cases and report on those issues, which is really crucial and exciting for the precedent that it sets, and it’s very clearly necessary still, because people don’t just sort their lives in the 18 months that the FCDO chose to supply that funding.”

This feeling of being left alone and increasingly isolated from the UK is one that many Brits in Europe have felt in the aftermath of Brexit. But the upcoming UK election on July 4th could be a game-changer.

This time, following a change in the law, Brits who have lived abroad for more than 15 years will be able to vote for the first time.

Polling station in the UK

A polling station in the UK. Photo by Elliott Stallion on Unsplash

When it comes to the election, the message from British in Europe is clear: “Make your voice count now, make your vote count, make sure you use it,” Golding said.

With the June 18th registration deadline fast approaching, BiE is advising UK citizens abroad to apply for a proxy vote as soon as possible, rather than relying on a postal vote from abroad. Since the 15-year rule was abolished on January 16th, more than 100,000 British citizens have registered to vote, according to official statistics. It is unclear how many were registered before the change in the law.

With an estimated 5.5 million Brits currently living abroad – 1.3 million of whom are in the EU – this could have a significant impact on the electoral landscape, Golding says. But most significantly, the change is creating a feeling of connection and belonging that wasn’t there before.

Nurturing this sense of belonging is one of the main goals of ICE.

With these bridges being built, British in Europe hopes to create a network of support that spans across borders.

“Now we’ve met. We’re going to meet,” said Golding. “We know we’re going to meet again in Berlin in October and then we’ll meet again in the new year in 2025 as well. It means a huge amount because even British in Europe, our steering team, we’ve only met physically three times.”

This opens up the possibility of people sharing their knowledge from country to country, Golding explained.

“There is crossover and the reassurance of having that EU wide view and knowing that you’re not alone and knowing that in this country, we managed to get this solution,” she said. “And then you can go back and say to the authorities in your country, well, in that country they did that – all of that helps. It’s really good.”

SHOW COMMENTS

Url copied to clipboard!