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ANALYSIS: What could Sweden’s next government look like?

After Sweden's prime minister lost a historic no-confidence vote, he faces the choice of speaking to other political parties to build a majority, or calling for fresh elections. The Local looked at the numbers and expert views to find out what we can expect.

Published: 21 June 2021 17:26 CEST
Updated: 22 June 2021 11:17 CEST
ANALYSIS: What could Sweden's next government look like?
Whether Löfven can return as PM hinges on Left Party leader Nooshi Dadgostar (L) and her Centre Party counterpart Annie Lööf reaching a compromise. Photo: Amir Nabizadeh/TT

First, Social Democrat leader Stefan Löfven has a choice: call for snap elections, or resign, sparking a round of talks aimed at forming a new government.

He has seven days to make this decision and in a press conference on Monday said he would first try to form a new government.

Uppsala University researcher Johan Hellström, who specialises in political parties in Sweden, said he thinks snap elections are unlikely due to the risk that they would see the conservative bloc pick up the few extra votes they need to form their own majority.

“First and foremost, I think Löfven will try to find support for a new government and to open for the speaker to start a new talmansrunda. Today, there is really only one option unless The Centre Party changes sides which is quite unlikely. And that is a red/green-Centre majority,” Hellström told The Local.

For a government to be able to form in Sweden, it needs a majority of MPs (at least 175) to either vote in favour of it, or abstain from the vote. Currently, the ruling Social Democrat-Green government count 116 MPs, needing another 59 in order to reach the majority.

At the moment, that support comes from the Centre and Liberal parties in exchange for influence on certain policy decisions (including the issue of market rents which sparked the current crisis) and from the Left Party (which is strongly against some of the policies the government has agreed to, but still prefers a centre-left government to a conservative one).

The Liberal Party has already said it wants a conservative government, so Löfven cannot count on their support. The Left and Centre Party together would contribute 58 votes, meaning that if one of Sweden's two independent MPs also agreed to support Löfven, he could return as PM. That's likely, since one of the two independents, former Left Party MP Amineh Kakabaveh, voted against her former party to support Löfven in Monday's no-confidence vote, giving a speech to say she did not want to vote with the Sweden Democrats.

One of the key reasons for this is the growing influence of the Sweden Democrats. Long shut out of politics as the other parties refused to collaborate with them, this caused problems in 2018 as their rise left both the traditional blocs without a majority -- leading to the January Deal between the government and its former centre-right opposition, which created friction with the Left Party.

Since that election, the Moderates, Christian Democrats and most recently the Liberal Party have opened the door to wider cooperation with the Sweden Democrats.

The Centre Party has refused to be part of a government propped up by the Sweden Democrats, but it has also refused to co-operate directly with the Left Party, putting the centre-left parties in a tough position. The gap between these two parties is what caused the vote of no confidence, and it's the main stumbling block for Löfven as he works to secure a majority now.

On Monday, Löfven would not comment on the Centre and Left Parties working together, saying, "those are two parties that must have their own relationship".

If it is not possible for either Löfven’s Social Democrats or the Moderate Party to form a government, there will be no other option than to have a fresh election.

This would need to happen no more than three months after it is announced, and even if it goes ahead, the scheduled September 2022 election would still take place just one year later.

But it's not in any party's best interest, most commentators believe. Both the Liberal and Green parties are close to falling below the four percent threshold needed to enter parliament, according to recent polls, as the Liberals' move closer to the Sweden Democrats has met with criticism both from voters and within the party.

Jonas Hinnfors, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg, told the TT newswire that a snap election could see the Liberals pick up votes from the Moderate Party to stay in parliament, which could make the Sweden Democrats the largest party on the right.

"It is important for the balance in future government documents that the Moderates will not be smaller than the Sweden Democrats. I think the Moderates would find that very troublesome," he said.

For the right-of-centre bloc, he argued, it would be more beneficial to have more time to prepare before voters next go to the polls, meaning a September 2021 election is in no party's best interest. The only question is whether another alternative turns out to be feasible.

By Catherine Edwards and Isabella Anderson

Member comments

  1. “The Liberal Party has already said it wants a conservative government,…” What does it mean in Sweden when a party that calls itself “liberal” is actively aligning itself with a party that is as far from “liberal” as governing political parties get in Sweden? Also, it seems like the missing puzzle piece in discussions about the machinating of power in the legislature is how to dissuade Swedes from supporting the SD. Is there no movement to address their concerns from within a socialist state perspective? Leaving the task to fear-mongering populists seems like it’s not going very well….

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WORK PERMITS

Sweden’s Migration Agency rejects role in work permit salary threshold exemption plan

Sweden's Migration Agency has rejected a call for it to be responsible for drawing up a list of in-demand skills and professions exempted from the coming median-salary requirement for a work permit.

Published: 25 June 2024 12:02 CEST
Sweden's Migration Agency rejects role in work permit salary threshold exemption plan

In the conclusions to a government inquiry into setting the median salary threshold, judge Ann-Jeanette Eriksson proposed that the Migration Agency be made responsible for drawing up annual national and regional lists of professions which should be exempted from the threshold.

The list of proposed exemptions could then, she recommended, either be passed to the government for a final decision, or else apply immediately. 

In its response to consultation, the Migration Agency said that it did not believe that it was the right agency to draw up the list. 

“The Migration Agency considers that the task of preparing these proposals should be given to the Swedish Public Employment Service which is the expert agency on labour market issues,” the agency said. 

“As the expert agency, the Swedish Public Employment Service has much broader competence when it comes to judging the demand for labour.”

The employment service could then consult the Migration Agency and other relevant agencies before passing the list to the government, it recommended. 

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The Swedish Public Employment Service did not echo the Migration Agency’s call in its own response. 

It did, however, recommend an alternative system proposed by Eriksson, under which the Migration Agency, rather than the government, would have the final say on which jobs should be exempted. 

“The alternative proposal would mean a simpler process and shorter handling time”, the service said. 

The Migration Agency, however, said it did not support this alternative proposal, without giving any reasons for this.

It did call for a consideration over “whether it might be necessary to consult with other authorities before the proposals are made to the government”.

The agency also called for more specific language on what “considerations around migration law” it should apply when deciding on which professions to exempt. 

In some of its comments on the detail or proposals, the Migration Agency highlighted that the law should specify that work permit applicants need to be offered a salary that meets or exceeds Sweden’s median salary “at the time of application”, and also called for more specifics on how to define a “monthly salary”.

  • Don’t miss any Swedish work permit news from The Local by downloading our app (available on Apple and Android) and then selecting Work Permits in your Notification options via the User button

Eriksson also recommended that Migration Agency be tasked with deciding which industries should be entirely excluded from the work permit system because they have historically had problems with the exploitation of labour migrants and abuse of the work permit system.  

“The possibility of excluding certain groups of jobs is an important tool in the work against exploitation in the workplace,” the agency said of this proposal.

But it said that to carry out this task properly, it would need more information on what criteria should be applied when making such exclusions as well as increased powers to cooperate and share information with other agencies involved in combatting exploitation and abuse in the workplace. 

“For this work to be even more effective, more tools are needed that enable more thorough controls. This is both about developing regulations that provide the Migration Agency with wider powers to carry out checks that facilitate cooperation and information exchange between relevant authorities and organisations,” it said. 

When it comes to the impact of the proposals on its own internal workings, the agency said it agreed broadly with the Eriksson’s judgement that they would not increase the workload at the agency.

The extra work required to carry out its new tasks would, it said, be largely offset by the lower work load following from the proposed abolition of the spårbyte, or “track change” system which allows rejected asylum seekers to stay in the country and apply for work permits. 

It did warn, however, that the changes could lead to even longer processing times for work permit applications. 

“The Migration Agency would like to highlight that the proposed changes to the law, and in particular the salary threshold and the regional and national exemptions from this threshold might affect handling times for work permit cases,” it wrote. 

“The regulatory framework around labour migration is already complex today and involves several decision points. Judging whether an application concerns a job for which there is a national or regional shortage will require a new decision point which will require education and preparation.” 

To reduce the extra demand on resources, the agency called on the government to make the regulation “as precise as possible”, leaving as little room as possible for different interpretations, which would then allow the agency to speed up processing and even digitalise some decisions. 

If the plans to raise the work permit salary threshold from 80 percent of the median salary to 100 percent go through, the idea is that they would come into effect in June next year (although work permit holders renewing their permits would get a one-year grace period).

But the proposal has received a slew of criticism from Swedish business organisations, which argue that it would make it harder to fill essential roles and attract international talent.

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