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Can Germany’s Greens win over voters in eastern states ahead of election?

Long popular in western cities, Germany's Greens are bumping up against a wall with voters in the ex-communist east that could cost them the chance to snatch Chancellor Angela Merkel's crown when she retires this year.

Can Germany's Greens win over voters in eastern states ahead of election?
Green co-leader and chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock in Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the regional election there. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/dpa-Zentralbild | Klaus-Dietmar Gabbert

The now 40-year-old centre-left ecologist party will gather from Friday for a congress to plot the course toward September’s general election after a bruising performance last Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt state.

The poor vote showing cemented an image of lost momentum for the party, which for the first time in its history is staking a claim to the chancellery. 

READ ALSO: Merkel’s conservatives win last state vote before election

“The Greens are still both: potentially the strongest political force in the country and a small niche party, depending on the place, time and
situation,” news weekly Der Spiegel said.

Despite ambitions for a double-digit result, the Greens notched up just six percent in the country’s poorest state – less than a point higher than their 2016 score.

“It wasn’t what we had hoped,” admitted a dejected Annalena Baerbock, also 40, the Greens’ chancellor candidate.

“Some of our messaging on climate protection failed to cut through to the voters,” she said, despite devastating droughts in the rural region in recent summers.

READ ALSO: Merkel’s CDU gains momentum after victory in key German state vote

“In the east, which is still marked by the shock of reunification, potentially costly ecological measures are not a big draw for voters,”  political scientist Hajo Funke told AFP.

The election handed Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) a resounding win with 37 percent of the vote, pushing the far-right AfD into a distant second place with 21 percent.

The strong outcome put wind in the sails of CDU leader Armin Laschet, Baerbock’s main opponent to run Europe’s top economy after 16 years of Merkel at the helm.

Two-horse race 

The Greens, out of federal government since 2005, had been riding high at the national level, with voters telling pollsters the climate crisis is their  top concern, albeit by a much larger margin in the west.

A survey last month also showed Germans hungry for change, with more than 60 percent hoping for a new government after the election.

Senior Greens say they are happy the campaign is shaping up as a two-horse race, and that excitement about the youthful Baerbock, a mother of two small children, has endured among their energised base.

But they acknowledge Baerbock, who is from the west but represents an eastern constituency outside Berlin in parliament, will have to make the
Greens more than an one-issue party if they hope to win outright.

Greens co-leader Robert Habeck said the weekend election disappointment served as a wake-up call that they would need to “look beyond climate protection”.

He cited addressing the growing cleft between rural poverty and urban wealth, particularly in creating opportunities for young jobseekers, and
expanding public transport infrastructure as sure vote winners.

He acknowledged that the “enormous political effort” required to bring down carbon dioxide emissions would have to be accompanied by “social measures” to cushion the blow to those whose jobs would be shed in the energy transition.

The party is also planning a targeted campaign for voters over the age of 60 in both east and west, arguing that “climate protection is also a policy for your grandkids”.

‘Bad luck and slip-ups’

But beyond the issues preoccupying voters in the east, whose economic output continues to lag behind the west three decades after reunification, a series of gaffes by Baerbock in recent weeks has taken some of the shine off.

“There wasn’t a Baerbock effect in the Saxony-Anhalt election – if anything she probably weighed the state party down with oversights, bad luck
and slip-ups,” business newspaper Handelsblatt said.

A failure to declare to parliament a bonus she received from the party and inaccuracies – since corrected – on her CV have undermined the party’s message of improved transparency.

READ ALSO: Will Germany’s Greens face tougher election race after series of gaffes?

Comments by Habeck on a visit to Kiev last month appearing to back supplying arms to Ukraine added to negative headlines, even if he quickly
rowed them back.

Green proposals for hiking petrol prices and eliminating domestic flights in favour of rail and bus connections have also gone down badly in some quarters.

Senior Green officials admit it will be an uphill battle to counter conservative bids to paint them as a party just for latte-sipping, electric
vehicle-driving urbanites.

“We have got to keep working on making clear that we are a party at home in cities and the countryside,” parliamentary group leader Katrin  Goering-Eckardt, who is from the eastern state of Thuringia, told public radio.

By Mathieu FOULKES and Deborah COLE
                       
   

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2024 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

From Swexit to Frexit: How Europe’s far-right parties have ditched plans to leave EU

Far-right parties, set to make soaring gains in the European Parliament elections in June, have one by one abandoned plans to get their countries to leave the European Union.

From Swexit to Frexit: How Europe's far-right parties have ditched plans to leave EU

Whereas plans to leave the bloc took centre stage at the last European polls in 2019, far-right parties have shifted their focus to issues such as immigration as they seek mainstream votes.

“Quickly a lot of far-right parties abandoned their firing positions and their radical discourse aimed at leaving the European Union, even if these parties remain eurosceptic,” Thierry Chopin, a visiting professor at the College of Europe in Bruges told AFP.

Britain, which formally left the EU in early 2020 following the 2016 Brexit referendum, remains the only country to have left so far.

Here is a snapshot:

No Nexit 

The Dutch Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders won a stunning victory in Dutch national elections last November and polls indicate it will likely top the European vote in the Netherlands.

While the manifesto for the November election stated clearly: “the PVV wants a binding referendum on Nexit” – the Netherlands leaving the EU – such a pledge is absent from the European manifesto.

For more coverage of the 2024 European Elections click here.

The European manifesto is still fiercely eurosceptic, stressing: “No European superstate for us… we will work hard to change the Union from within.”

The PVV, which failed to win a single seat in 2019 European Parliament elections, called for an end to the “expansion of unelected eurocrats in Brussels” and took aim at a “veritable tsunami” of EU environmental regulations.

No Frexit either

Leaders of France’s National Rally (RN) which is also leading the polls in a challenge to President Emmanuel Macron, have also explicitly dismissed talk they could ape Britain’s departure when unveiling the party manifesto in March.

“Our Macronist opponents accuse us… of being in favour of a Frexit, of wanting to take power so as to leave the EU,” party leader Jordan Bardella said.

But citing EU nations where the RN’s ideological stablemates are scoring political wins or in power, he added: “You don’t leave the table when you’re about to win the game.”

READ ALSO: What’s at stake in the 2024 European parliament elections?

Bardella, 28, who took over the party leadership from Marine Le Pen in 2021, is one of France’s most popular politicians.

The June poll is seen as a key milestone ahead of France’s next presidential election in 2027, when Le Pen, who lead’s RN’s MPs, is expected to mount a fourth bid for the top job.

Dexit, maybe later

The co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Alice Weidel, said in January 2024 that the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum was an example to follow for the EU’s most populous country.

Weidel said the party, currently Germany’s second most popular, wanted to reform EU institutions to curb the power of the European Commission and address what she saw as a democratic deficit.

But if the changes sought by the AfD could not be realised, “we could have a referendum on ‘Dexit’ – a German exit from the EU”, she said.

The AfD which has recently seen a significant drop in support as it contends with various controversies, had previously downgraded a “Dexit” scenario to a “last resort”.

READ ALSO: ‘Wake-up call’: Far-right parties set to make huge gains in 2024 EU elections

Fixit, Swexit, Polexit…

Elsewhere the eurosceptic Finns Party, which appeals overwhelmingly to male voters, sees “Fixit” as a long-term goal.

The Sweden Democrats (SD) leader Jimmie Åkesson and leading MEP Charlie Weimers said in February in a press op ed that “Sweden is prepared to leave as a last resort”.

Once in favour of a “Swexit”, the party, which props up the government of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, in 2019 abandoned the idea of leaving the EU due to a lack of public support.

In November 2023 thousands of far-right supporters in the Polish capital Warsaw called for a “Polexit”.

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