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Loyal ally or rival: Is former PM Phillippe set to challenge Macron for the Elysée in 2022?

When Edouard Philippe stepped aside as French prime minister July last year after three turbulent years marked by battling protests, strikes and the pandemic, he wore cufflinks adorned with flip-flops and had the air of a man happy to leave national politics.

Published: 7 April 2021 17:14 CEST

Loyal ally or rival: Is former PM Phillippe set to challenge Macron for the Elysée in 2022?

Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe in Paris on April 4th. Photo: Thomas COEX / AFP

Philippe, who was almost unknown nationally when President Emmanuel Macron appointed him premier in 2017, retreated to the relative obscurity of his post as mayor of the Normandy city of Le Havre.

But after being thrust by Macron into the frontline of battling the “yellow vest” protests, strikes on pension reforms and then above all the Covid-19 pandemic, Philippe left office enjoying unusually high popularity and visibility for a French premier.

The question now is could Philippe – who left the main right-wing Les Républicains (LR) party ahead of becoming premier – now be plotting a course to challenge his former boss in 2022 presidential elections?

After keeping a low-profile for nine months, Philippe has suddenly reemerged over the last days, giving print and TV interviews and on Wednesday published a book he has co-written about his stint as prime minister.

But in a series of philosophical and sometimes sphinx-line musings on loyalty and freedom, he has left commentators scratching their heads over whether he plans to stand against Macron.

ANALYSIS: Four key questions on France’s 2022 presidential election

‘Freedom’

“The ambiguous game of Edouard Philippe is annoying the Macronistes,” said the Le Monde daily, using the term employed in France for diehard Macron loyalists.

“Edouard Phillipe: Is he loyal or a rival?” asked the left-leaning Libération on its front page Wednesday.

“The former prime minister is back on the national scene.”

After a listener on France Inter radio Wednesday told Philippe in a phone-in he would vote for him in a presidential election, the former premier let the speculation bubble further.

“I have a complete freedom today… If I can weigh into the public debate – and not just the presidential elections – then I will feel I am taking my responsibilities,” he said.

“I want no-one to doubt neither my loyalty, my liberty nor my desire to serve the country,” said Philippe, who conspicuously never joined Macron’s ruling Republic on the Move (LREM) ruling party.

In an interview with the Le Point weekly published last week, Philippe had said he has “no intention of seeing my convictions or my ideas go to waste without fighting for them,” adding he liked “to be in charge.”

Philippe had impressed with his earnest, realistic but assured tone during the darkest days of the pandemic’s first wave. His rising popularity was reportedly one reason Macron chose to replace him with Jean Castex in a reshuffle in July 2020.

‘Betrayal’

“He left in a state of grace, with his popularity at its height,” said Frederic Dabi, deputy director general of the Ifop pollster, told AFP.

“But popularity is not worth anything if it is not used,” he added.

Most analysts expect the 2022 elections to become a duel between the centrist Macron and far right leader Marine Le Pen.

But the emergence of a strong candidate on the right could upend calculations and even raise the possibility of one of the frontrunners being knocked out in the first round.

Former minister Xavier Bertrand, another right-wing heavyweight, has said he plans to stand. Like Philippe, he is no longer a member of The Republicans party.

Figures within The Republicans – the party of former French president Nicolas Sarkozy whose lingering ambitions may have been ended by a graft conviction – have made clear they won’t ever forgive Philippe for joining with Macron.

“His arrival as prime minister was shrouded in the betrayal of his political family and his ideas,” said the party’s deputy leader Guillaume Peltier.

“To entrust the future of France to him is like the Roman Empire entrusting its destiny to Brutus,” he said.

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Cohabitation

The far-right Rassemblement National of three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and current party leader Jordan Bardella are tipped to be the party with most seats after the second round on July 7th.

If the RN and its allies did secure a majority in the Assemblée Nationale – and current polling suggests this is doubtful – Macron would find himself in a “cohabitation“, in which the president and government are from opposing parties.

Post-war France has experienced three such forced marriages. All were between the left and the centre-right with the last from 1997-2002 between President Jacques Chirac and Socialist premier Lionel Jospin.

Cohabitation: What happens in France’s political ‘forced marriages’?

A cohabition between the Macron and his far-right arch-enemies would likely be a much unhappier affair.

While the far-right would be able to implement part of its domestic programme, on, for example, curtailing immigration, only the president can call a referendum or trigger a vote on constitutional changes.

The president, who usually sets foreign and defence policy, could also find his hands tied if the RN appointed nationalist defence and foreign ministers opposed to his worldview.

Coalition

France has spurned coalitions since the post-war 4th Republic (1946-1958) when the country went through 22 governments in 12 years.

Since losing his parliamentary majority in 2022, Macron has sought to cobble together alliances in parliament on a vote-by-vote basis or to force through legislation without a vote rather than form a pact with another party.

The RN or the left could try do the same if they fall short of a majority but a minority government of the far-right or left would likely fail to pass a vote of no confidence.

Aware of the risks, RN leader Bardella has said he will refuse to become prime minister unless he wins an outright majority.

Macron’s camp hopes that in the event of a hung parliament it could form a coalition with moderates of the left and right.

As part of its outreach to possible allies, Macron’s party has not entered candidates in 67 constituencies where centre-right or centre-left candidates are running.

But Macron has limited his options by putting the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) — the dominant force in the NFP — on a par with the far-right in what he calls the country’s “extremes”. He accuses LFI of anti-Semitism, which it rejects.

Caretaker government

Another option would be for Macron to appoint a technocratic non-partisan government which all parties could get behind.

Camille Bedock, a political scientist at the Emile Durckheim centre in Bordeaux, cites the example of Italy, where respected former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi formed a national unity government in 2021 when Italy was in turmoil. It lasted a year-and-a-half.

Bedock said Macron could also decide to leave the current government headed by his party’s Gabriel Attal in place in a caretaker capacity for a year. He could then call new elections.

This would have the benefit of ensuring continuity through the Olympic Games (July 26th – August 11th) when the country will be under intense global scrutiny.

Whether the far-right or left would support such a move, which would effectively buy Macron time to try turn around his presidency, is highly uncertain.

Macron resigns

The most dramatic scenario would see Macron resign if faced with the prospect of being neutered by the far right or the hard left.

Le Pen, who is expected to try succeed Macron in 2027 presidential polls, has warned that he “will have no choice but to resign” in the event of a “political crisis”.

Macron has vowed to remain on office until the end of his second term in 2027, whatever the outcome.

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