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EXPLAINER: These are the key dates in Catalonia’s separatist crisis

Voters go to the polls on Sunday in a regional election in Catalonia, which staged a failed attempt to break away from Spain in 2017.

EXPLAINER: These are the key dates in Catalonia's separatist crisis
More than three years after a failed bid to break away from Spain, Catalonia goes to the polls on February 14, 2021 for an election that Madrid hopes will unseat the region's ruling separatists. Photo

Here's a timeline and key events of the northern region's separatist crisis:

Independence bid

On September 6, 2017, the separatist majority in Catalonia's regional parliament passes a law paving the way for an independence referendum on October 1.

It is fiercely opposed by Madrid. In February 2017, Spain's Constitutional Court had declared such a vote would be unconstitutional.

On October 1, security forces operating under a judicial mandate intervene in the referendum process, seizing ballot boxes in many polling stations. 

Images of police violence are beamed around the world.

Turnout is about 43 percent, with nine out of 10 voters backing independence, Catalan authorities say. The results cannot be verified, as there are no independent observers and police disrupted the electronic count.

On October 3, after hundreds of thousands of Catalans rally in fury over police violence against voters, King Felipe VI sternly denounces the independence bid, and calls on national authorities to “ensure constitutional order”.

On October 27, 70 separatist deputies — just over half of the 135 lawmakers in the Catalan parliament — unilaterally declare independence.

READ ALSO: Catalonia goes to the polls on Sunday but has separatism lost its spark?

The central government immediately suspends Catalonia's autonomy, dissolving its parliament and dismissing its separatist leaders. It calls a regional election for December 21.


Madrid gets tough

On November 2, 2017 eight regional ministers are detained. A European arrest warrant is issued for Catalan regional president Carles Puigdemont, who has fled to Brussels. 

Catalans turn out in large numbers during a December 21 regional election, voting separatist parties back into power, including several candidates who are in prison and others who in self-imposed exile.

On June 2, 2018 Quim Torra is sworn in as Catalonia's new president and the region's autonomy is restored.

That same day a new Spanish prime minister, Socialist Pedro Sanchez, is sworn in.

He adopts a softer tone on Catalonia — resuming dialogue with Torra — but rules out any referendum on independence.

Leaders sentenced

Talks between Sanchez and Torra break down ahead of the start on February 12, 2019 of the trial of 12 separatists for their role in the independence bid.

On October 14, the Supreme Court hands down heavy prison sentences of between nine and 13 years to nine of the separatists, who are convicted of sedition.

Sanchez says it is time to “turn the page” in relations with Catalonia and focus on “dialogue”.

READ ALSO: Catalonia rivals kick off campaign but could coronavirus torpedo the vote?

Thousands of Catalans react to the sentences by pouring into the streets in protest, blocking roads and rail tracks and trying to paralyse Barcelona's airport.

Catalonia is rocked as separatists burn barricades and clash with riot police.

Negotiation

Sanchez is sworn in for a second term in January 2020 with the support of Catalan separatist party ERC.

The party agreed to back him in exchange for the start of talks between Madrid and Catalonia's regional government over the secession crisis.

The talks begin on February 26 but are soon suspended due to the pandemic.

Torra in September 2020 is banned from holding public office for refusing to remove separatist symbols from public buildings, triggering Sunday's early election in Catalonia.

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Could Spain ever dethrone King Felipe and become a republic?

After a decade on the Spanish throne, King Felipe VI is steadily growing in popularity. If things were ever to turn sour, could the Spanish public and government actually oust the monarch and turn Spain into a republic?

Could Spain ever dethrone King Felipe and become a republic?

King Felipe VI is set to celebrate a decade on the Spanish throne. He became king on June 19th 2014 following the abdication of his scandal-ridden father, former King Juan Carlos.

This meant that Felipe took over the crown needing to somewhat rehabilitate the public image of la Casa Real. According to polling data released to coincide with his decade as king, it seems he’s done a decent enough job of it so far. In fact, after 10 years on the throne his approval rating has grown.

READ ALSO: What do Spaniards think of their royal family?

Felipe obtained an average score of 6.6 among Spaniards polled, surpassing, for the first time, the 6.5 mark. This is according to a survey carried out by the IMOP Insights Institute for Vanitatis.

In fact, after a decade the majority of Spaniards approve of the King’s performance: 46.4 percent have a positive view of his work, compared to 20.9 percent who are critical or hold a negative view.

Older people generally have more favourable views of Felipe and the monarchy, whereas under 25s are the only group with a negative opinion of him.

In terms of regional breakdown, the most pro-Felipe part of the country was found to be Andalusia and the least, to the surprise of absolutely nobody in Spain, was Catalonia.

Many royal commentators in Spain argue that Felipe, along with his daughter, Princess of Asturias Leonor, have taken big steps to restoring the Spanish crown’s credibility.

That Felipe’s personal approval rating has grown over time is testament to that, and positive ratings, especially after a decade in the public eye, is something most politicians could only dream of.

That is to say, there doesn’t seem to be any danger of Spaniards turning on their king for now. But what if Spanish public opinion changed over time and suddenly Spain did want to become a republic?

Legally, constitutionally speaking, could Spain ever dethrone King Felipe and become a republic?

Spain’s King Felipe VI and Spain’s Queen Letizia attend a ceremony for the Spanish Crown Princess of Asturias. Photo: JAVIER SORIANO/AFP.

The steps to a republic

Even if Spaniards themselves wanted it, transitioning from a constitutional monarchy to a republic involves a lot of steps that make it highly unlikely, perhaps even impossible.

The change would require two-thirds support in both chambers of the Spanish Congress, something that is very unlikely in the current political climate. Such consensus across both houses is very, very rare.

But, theoretically speaking, to get rid of the king the Spanish legislature would first need to amend Article 1 of the título preliminar of the Spanish Constitution, which outlines the state structure and clearly says that: “the form of the Spanish state is a parliamentary monarchy”.

To do this, the government or Congress would have to call for a vote on constitutional reform in the Congress of Deputies and it would have to pass with a qualified majority, that is, with a majority of two thirds or more, which is equivalent to 234 or more deputies.

READ ALSO: How much do Spain’s king and royal family make?

It would then have to be ratified in the Senate with the same qualified majority. Of the 265 senators, 177 would have to be in favour.

But it doesn’t end there. If both chambers agree, Congress would be dissolved, a general election would have to be called, and the voting would have to be repeated among the new deputies.

However, there’s still one final hurdle: a general referendum. The people’s referendum is meant to function as a sort of fail-safe or quality control on the actions of the legislature, especially on such a huge constitutional question.

Javier Tajadura, Professor of Constitutional Law at the University of the Basque Country, told Spanish website Newtral that “the referendum serves as a form of citizen control of what the Cortes want to carry out, and it must be carried out after the votes [in both houses] have been taken.”

If, after all the votes in Congress pass with suitable majorities, the referendum also results in a yes and it is undeniable that Spaniards want to change from monarchy to republic, Spain would become a republic.

Then the debate would shift to whether Spain would need an entirely new constitution, or it would need to make some (pretty huge) changes to the pre-existing constitution of 1978.

So, yes. Spain could, in theory, become a republic. Clearly, the Spanish system has a lot of checks and balances embedded within it that makes moving from a monarchy to a republic constitutionally complicated, politically unlikely, and, in realistic terms, very improbable to the point of being almost impossible.

As Miguel Ángel Cabellos, Professor of Constitutional law at the University of Girona, puts it: “Beyond the fact that it is a change of an essential and core element of the political system, which would also radically divide society, the truth is that from a legal point of view the difficulties are very notable, one could almost say insurmountable in practice.”

READ ALSO: The one thing to know about each of Spain’s ‘crazy’ kings and queens

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