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ANALYSIS: Italy’s government survives, but for how long?

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's government has survived a political crisis this week, yet it remains in a perilous position. Here's what may happen next.

ANALYSIS: Italy's government survives, but for how long?
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte (C) leaves Palazzo Madama, the Senate building in Rome, on Tuesday after narrowly winning a confidence vote. Photo: Filippo Monteforte/AFP

The government was plunged into crisis after ex-premier Matteo Renzi withdrew his small Italia Viva party from the ruling coalition.

READ ALSO: Italian PM Conte survives confidence vote on government's future

His move last week opened up a period of political turmoil, while the Covid-19 death toll mounts and Italy must come up with a credible plan to spend 220 billion euros ($266 billion) in EU recovery funds.

Though the government survived a confidence vote on Tuesday, it has been left weakened.

Conte survived Renzi's challenge by securing the backing of the Senate, by 156 votes to 140, but fell short of winning the 161 needed for an overall
majority.

“Conte is saved, but you can't govern like this,” La Stampa newspaper wrote on its front page after Tuesday evening's knife-edge result in the Senate, the upper chamber.

As is so often the case in Italian poltiics, nothing is certain.

While a snap election seems to be off the table for now, there are days or weeks of political wrangling ahead for the government as it tries to find a way forward.

Here's a look at what's on the horizon.

Matteo Renzi addresses the Senate prior to the confidence vote on Tuesday. Photo: AFP



Minority government in charge

The Senate vote left Conte leading a minority government which may struggle to push its agenda in parliament, just as it is dealing with the coronavirus and a severe recession.

The ruling coalition, comprising the populist Five Star Movement (M5S), the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and a smaller leftist party, is now trying to beef up its numbers.

It hopes to win over some opposition lawmakers, citing the need to preserve stability and avoid snap elections in the middle of the pandemic.

Courting opposition lawmakers

Three senators from opposition parties made the leap on Tuesday night, but several more are needed to give the ruling coalition a more solid parliamentary footing.

READ ALSO: The words and phrases you'll need to understand Italian political discussions

The Senate vote “is clearly not the end goal, but a starting point”, Culture Minister Dario Franceschi, a key member of the PD, told La Repubblica.

“A government is strong if it can count on 170 senators. So we must now work to strengthen it,” he added, calling on centre-right “moderates” to
switch sides.

Reshuffle on the cards?

The ruling parties are keen to avoid snap elections, which opinion polls suggest would hand victory to a right-wing bloc led by Matteo Salvini's
eurosceptic League party.

Most opposition backbenchers are also in no hurry to face voters. Their re-election chances are reduced after recent reforms cut the number of parliamentary seats by one-third.

Conte can offer the incentive of a government job for new arrivals. In his speeches to parliament, he clearly said he was open to a reshuffle in the
coming weeks.

Opposition MPs hold signs reading 'Conte resign' during the PM's speech to the lower house on Monday. Photo: AFP



Fresh trouble in July?

If Conte fails to woo enough opposition forces, his hold on power will become increasingly tenuous, especially once the threat of fresh elections
evaporates.

Under Italy's constitution, parliament cannot be dissolved in the last six months of a sitting head of state's mandate, and President Sergio Mattarella's term ends in January 2022.

This means that in six months' time anyone seeking to unseat Conte could trigger a new political crisis without the risk of elections.

A possible outcome could be a grand coalition government to see Italy through the worst of the pandemic. Renzi said he would be open to this.

What now for Renzi?

The Italia Viva leader quit the government after weeks of criticising Conte's leadership style, the government's record on the pandemic, and its plans for the EU recovery funds.

Renzi has argued that the unprecedented sum risks being wasted on hand-outs rather than long-term investments, despite Conte's promises.

PROFILE: Who is Matteo Renzi, the 'wrecker' of Italian politics?

But critics accused Renzi – whose party is polling at just three percent – of seeking to deliberately destabilise the government so he can play kingmaker.

“I will have fun in opposition. I will hold the balance on everything,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

Conte compared Renzi on Tuesday to “someone who constantly fills the common path with mines” and said he found it “very difficult” trying to govern while being under attack.

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EUROPEAN UNION

Italian PM Meloni to stand in EU Parliament elections

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Sunday she would stand in upcoming European Parliament elections, a move apparently calculated to boost her far-right party, although she would be forced to resign immediately.

Italian PM Meloni to stand in EU Parliament elections

Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, which has neo-Fascist roots, came top in Italy’s 2022 general election with 26 percent of the vote.

It is polling at similar levels ahead of the European elections on from June 6-9.

With Meloni heading the list of candidates, Brothers of Italy could exploit its national popularity at the EU level, even though EU rules require that any winner already holding a ministerial position must immediately resign from the EU assembly.

“We want to do in Europe exactly what we did in Italy on September 25, 2022 — creating a majority that brings together the forces of the right to finally send the left into opposition, even in Europe!” Meloni told a party event in the Adriatic city of Pescara.

In a fiery, sweeping speech touching briefly on issues from surrogacy and Ramadan to artificial meat, Meloni extolled her coalition government’s one-and-a-half years in power and what she said were its efforts to combat illegal immigration, protect families and defend Christian values.

After speaking for over an hour in the combative tone reminiscent of her election campaigns, Meloni said she had decided to run for a seat in the European Parliament.

READ ALSO: How much control does Giorgia Meloni’s government have over Italian media?

“I’m doing it because I want to ask Italians if they are satisfied with the work we are doing in Italy and that we’re doing in Europe,” she said, suggesting that only she could unite Europe’s conservatives.

“I’m doing it because in addition to being president of Brothers of Italy I’m also the leader of the European conservatives who want to have a decisive role in changing the course of European politics,” she added.

In her rise to power, Meloni, as head of Brothers of Italy, often railed against the European Union, “LGBT lobbies” and what she has called the politically correct rhetoric of the left, appealing to many voters with her straight talk.

“I am Giorgia, I am a woman, I am a mother, I am Italian, I am a Christian” she famously declared at a 2019 rally.

She used a similar tone Sunday, instructing voters to simply write “Giorgia” on their ballots.

“I have always been, I am, and will always be proud of being an ordinary person,” she shouted.

EU rules require that “newly elected MEP credentials undergo verification to ascertain that they do not hold an office that is incompatible with being a Member of the European Parliament,” including being a government minister.

READ ALSO: Why is Italy’s government being accused of helping tax dodgers?

The strategy has been used before, most recently in Italy in 2019 by Meloni’s deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, who leads the far-right Lega party.

The EU Parliament elections do not provide for alliances within Italy’s parties, meaning that Brothers of Italy will be in direct competition with its coalition partners Lega and Forza Italia, founded by Silvio Berlusconi.

The Lega and Forza Italia are polling at about seven percent and eight percent, respectively.

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