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Explained: Why an overhaul of Sweden’s migration laws could spark a government crisis

Disagreements over how Swedish migration policy should be changed have caused political tension, including within the government. If agreement can't be reached, the fractures could even lead to a new election.

Explained: Why an overhaul of Sweden's migration laws could spark a government crisis
Deputy Prime Minister and Green Party leader Isabella Lövin (R) walks by Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in parliament. Photo: Jessica Gow/TT

Migration policy is a thorny issue in Sweden, but one thing all political parties have agreed on is that it needs an overhaul. 

Last year, a Migration Committee was set up to create a report on exactly how this overhaul should look. The committee includes representatives from all eight parties represented in Swedish parliament, and the decision to set it up came from the January Agreement — a deal between the Social Democrat-Green coalition government and two opposition parties which allowed the minority government to govern. 

One proposal in particular has sparked a possible crisis within the government: the question of whether Sweden should impose limits on how many asylum seekers and refugees can enter Sweden each year.

The Social Democrats met with four other parties on Friday to discuss their proposals for the Migration Committee: the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Centre and Liberal parties. These four used to make up a four-block centre-right alliance, although that more or less dissolved after the Centre and Liberals entered the cross-bloc deal with the government this year.

The five parties met on Friday, without the Social Democrats' junior coalition partner, the Green Party.

Their exclusion sparked crisis talks within the Green Party over the weekend, according to reports in the Expressen newspaper, citing multiple party sources. The newspaper also reported that a majority of the party's board members were in favour of leaving the government if the Social Democrats sided with the centre-right parties over them.

The Green Party is positive towards many of the suggestions in the proposals, but one sticking point is the suggested cap on the number of asylum seekers and refugees per year.

Speaking on Swedish TV, Green Party leader Isabella Lövin refused to comment on the meetings or the possibility of the Greens quitting the government, but said her party would not be part of a proposal that included this kind of a limit.

The Green Party only command a small share of the vote. In a survey at the start of June, just 4.1 percent of voters asked said they would support them, down from the 4.4 percent of the vote they received in the 2018 election and dangerously close to the 4 percent threshold needed to be represented in parliament.

But they still have some power, as the junior coalition partner in the government.

If the Green Party quit the government, the Social Democrats would no longer have enough seats to govern alone, so parliament would be forced to renegotiate on a new government.

That would mean a series of talks between partly leaders and the parliamentary spokesperson, called talmansrundor in Swedish, in order to work out if any party or coalition could gather enough support to govern. This could even result in a new election, given that it took over four months of negotiation after the last election to reach the government deal in place today.

But that would be politically risky for the Greens, who might risk losing their representation in parliament altogether in a new vote. 

It would also likely depend on the outcome of other issues, chiefly environmental issues such as the expansion of Stockholm's Arlanda airport, which have caused tension for the party.

In the meantime, the Migration Committee is supposed to submit its own report to the government by August, and the goal was that this would be a set of proposals with broad parliamentary consensus.

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‘Very little debate’ on consequences of Sweden’s crime and migration clampdown

Sweden’s political leaders are putting the population’s well-being at risk by moving the country in a more authoritarian direction, according to a recent report.

'Very little debate' on consequences of Sweden's crime and migration clampdown

The Liberties Rule of Law report shows Sweden backsliding across more areas than any other of the 19 European Union member states monitored, fuelling concerns that the country risks breaching its international human rights obligations, the report says.

“We’ve seen this regression in other countries for a number of years, such as Poland and Hungary, but now we see it also in countries like Sweden,” says John Stauffer, legal director of the human rights organisation Civil Rights Defenders, which co-authored the Swedish section of the report.

The report, compiled by independent civil liberties groups, examines six common challenges facing European Union member states.

Sweden is shown to be regressing in five of these areas: the justice system, media environment, checks and balances, enabling framework for civil society and systemic human rights issues.

The only area where Sweden has not regressed since 2022 is in its anti-corruption framework, where there has been no movement in either a positive or negative direction.

Source: Liberties Rule of Law report

As politicians scramble to combat an escalation in gang crime, laws are being rushed through with too little consideration for basic rights, according to Civil Rights Defenders.

Stauffer cites Sweden’s new stop-and-search zones as a case in point. From April 25th, police in Sweden can temporarily declare any area a “security zone” if there is deemed to be a risk of shootings or explosive attacks stemming from gang conflicts.

Once an area has received this designation, police will be able to search people and cars in the area without any concrete suspicion.

“This is definitely a piece of legislation where we see that it’s problematic from a human rights perspective,” says Stauffer, adding that it “will result in ethnic profiling and discrimination”.

Civil Rights Defenders sought to prevent the new law and will try to challenge it in the courts once it comes into force, Stauffer tells The Local in an interview for the Sweden in Focus Extra podcast

He also notes that victims of racial discrimination at the hands of the Swedish authorities had very little chance of getting a fair hearing as actions by the police or judiciary are “not even covered by the Discrimination Act”.

READ ALSO: ‘Civil rights groups in Sweden can fight this government’s repressive proposals’

Stauffer also expresses concerns that an ongoing migration clampdown risks splitting Sweden into a sort of A and B team, where “the government limits access to rights based on your legal basis for being in the country”.

The report says the government’s migration policies take a “divisive ‘us vs them’ approach, which threatens to increase rather than reduce existing social inequalities and exclude certain groups from becoming part of society”.

Proposals such as the introduction of a requirement for civil servants to report undocumented migrants to the authorities would increase societal mistrust and ultimately weaken the rule of law in Sweden, the report says.

The lack of opposition to the kind of surveillance measures that might previously have sparked an outcry is a major concern, says Stauffer.

Politicians’ consistent depiction of Sweden as a country in crisis “affects the public and creates support for these harsh measures”, says Stauffer. “And there is very little talk and debate about the negative consequences.”

Hear John Stauffer from Civil Rights Defender discuss the Liberties Rule of Law report in the The Local’s Sweden in Focus Extra podcast for Membership+ subscribers.

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