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POLITICS

Why Falun is the political centre of Sweden this week

Falun Municipality is home to around 60,000 people and is best known for its copper mine, the local sausage, and traditional red houses. But this week it's become the political centre of Sweden as the town gears up for a re-election.

Why Falun is the political centre of Sweden this week
Prime Minister Stefan Löfven speaking in the central square ahead of the vote. Photo: Ulf Palm / TT

In September's election, votes cast by 145 people in the municipality were not included in the count after the bag containing them was delivered late, as The Local reported at the time.

The result of the municipal election was then appealed to the Swedish Election Review Board, which in February decided to call a re-election in Falun, taking place on Sunday, April 7th. Only the municipal election needs to be re-done, since the board decided that the missing 145 votes would not have affected the parliamentary election or the Dalarna regional election, all of which took place on the same day.

“It's very important. People should be able to see that their vote is just as valuable as anyone else's,” Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said during his visit to the town this week.

The vote will be the first big test for the political parties after the so-called January Deal (januariavtalet in Swedish), in which the Centre and Liberal parties agreed to allow their former centre-left rivals, the Social Democrats and Green Party, to govern in exchange for some influence on key policy areas. 

Surveys of voter opinion carried out since January have shown the Christian Democrats (KD) rising in the national polls, while the governing Social Democrats have lost some support and both the Green Party and Liberals now polling below the four percent threshold required to enter parliament.

With Falun's re-election taking place at the municipal level, however, the focus there is primarily on local issues.

“My experience is that a lot of people are quite tired of politics now, and think that we politicians let the government formation drag on, which didn't do anything to increase trust in politics,” Christian Democrat leader Ebba Busch Thor told SVT Nyheter on her visit to Falun, during which she focussed on the issue of elderly care homes.

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Another reason the Falun re-election is interesting is that Sweden rarely has only one election taking place at a time, since elections at the parliamentary, regional, and local levels usually happen on the same day, partly in order to ensure high voter turnout.

And re-elections are rare in Sweden, with the most recent example taking place in Örebro eight years ago. In that instance, turnout in the re-election was significantly lower than the first time: 63.3 percent compared to 83.3 percent. Unlike in many other countries, Sweden does not carry out by-elections if an elected representative resigns, dies, or is otherwise prevented from carrying out their role.

So all eyes are on the town in central Sweden, and this week the leaders of all the major parties have been in Falun to meet voters and campaign. The leader of the Centre Party, which currently holds the mayor post in Falun, has visited the area twice during voting week.

In fact, voting in the re-election has already begun, since Sweden allows 'early voting' (förtidsröstning) in all elections. All of Sweden's 290 municipalities were forced to open up early voting stations only for voters registered in Falun, at least ten days ahead of the election.

But the re-election hasn't been without its stumbling blocks. The Liberal Party ordered 10,000 flyers ahead of Sunday's vote, and instead received 2,500 menus for a Dutch pizzeria after an apparent mix-up at the printer.

“We have no luck with the post. First there's a re-election because of Postnord and then we get these pizza menus,” Svante Parsjö Tegnér from the Liberals told the local Dalarnas Tidningar.

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POLITICS IN SWEDEN

Politics in Sweden: This year’s EU election will be a white-knuckle ride for smaller parties

With as many as three of Sweden's parties at risk of being kicked out of the European parliament, the stakes in this year's European elections are higher perhaps than ever before.

According to the latest polling by Verian for Swedish public broadcaster SVT, one party – the Liberals – is already polling below the formal four percent threshold to enter the European Parliament, but two more, the Christian Democrats and the Centre Party, are worryingly close, with each polling at both 4.5 percent. 

If the poll is right, the Social Democrats are set to be the big winners in the election, gaining two additional seats, while the Left Party and the far-right Sweden Democrats are both in line to gain one additional seat.

But as well as the Liberal Party, the Centre Party, Christian Democrats, and Green Party all set to lose one seat each, but as they each currently have more than one seat, they will nonetheless keep their representation in parliament. 

Tommy Möller, a professor of politics at Stockholm University, told the TT newswire that the two parties likely to be the most worried ahead of election day on June 9th are the Liberals and the Centre Party. 

For the Liberals, it matters partly because it has long seen itself as Sweden's most pro-EU party. At its highpoint 15 years ago, it had three seats in the EU parliament, but it sank to just one in the 2020 European elections.

If the party were now to lose the last of its seats, the leadership of party chairman Johan Persson, Möller argued, would be put into question. 

"This could prompt an internal debate on party leadership," he told the TT newswire. "There's no doubt that if the Liberals, who (...) promote themselves as the most pro-EU party, lost its mandate, it would be a massive blow."  

He said he would also not rule out a leadership challenge against the Centre Party's leader Muharrem Demirok should his party lose both its seats in the EU parliament, given how badly he has struggled as leader to gain any visibility with voters .

"Obviously the Centre Party is fighting an uphill battle in the opinion polls. If it loses its seat, that would obviously add to the lack of confidence in the party leader, which could prompt an internal leadership debate," Möller said. 

For the Christian Democrats, the Verian poll is in some ways encouraging. Thus far the indications are that Folklistan, the party formed by the former Christian Democrat MEP Sara Skyttedal, is far below the 4 percent threshold, with only an estimated 1.5 percent of the vote.

While it is no doubt nibbling away at Christian Democrat support, it has so far not managed to drag the party down to the 4 percent threshold. 

Möller said he did not expect anyone to call for party leader Ebba Busch to stand down, almost regardless of the result.  

"I don't think there will be calls for her resignation, but obviously, the mandate you have as a leader is always linked to how well its going for the party in opinion polls and elections," he said.  

Return of the Greens?

Even though they are projected to lose one of their seats, if the Green Party succeeds in winning 9.5 percent of the vote on June 9th, as the polls suggest, it will still be seen as decent result, showing that the party, which has been struggling in domestic politics, at least does well in the EU elections.

If the party retains its third seat, it will be seen as a resounding victory. 

According to a popularity poll by the Aftonbladet newspaper, the party's lead MEP, Alice Bah Kuhnke, is both the second most popular politician standing in the election and the most unpopular, reflecting just how polarising party has become in Sweden. 

In the poll, 30 percent of respondents said they had high or very high confidence in Bah Kuhnke, second only to the Left Party's candidate and former leader, Jonas Sjöstedt, on 42 percent. But at the same time, 64 percent of respondents said they had "low confidence" in her.  

According to Johan Martinsson, the head of opinion research at Demoskop, who carried out the poll, this should not worry the Greens too much.

"As long as the relevant group of voters have a large amount of confidence, it doesn't really make any difference if you are despised by those who oppose you. It can almost be a good thing as it makes it easier to get attention."

Could the election mark a turnaround for the party, which has voted in two new leaders this year? 

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