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POLITICS

Echoes of Clinton in Social Democrats’ welfare reform bid

The Social Democrats have proposed major changes to Sweden's welfare system, a move that reminds liberal commentator Nima Sanandaji of reforms enacted by former US President Bill Clinton.

Echoes of Clinton in Social Democrats' welfare reform bid
Are the Social Democrats trying to emulate US President Bill Clinton, who signed sweeping welfare reform legislation in 1996? File photo: AP

In my last column, I discussed the difficulties of distinguishing between right and left in Sweden’s election politics, at least when it comes to the Social Democrats. The example I used is how the party recently promised to cut the scope of the Swedish central government by 10 billion kronor ($1.5 billion). But it doesn’t stop there. The Social Democrats have gone from challenging the scope of government bureaucracy to criticizing overutilization of the social safety net.

The Social Democrats in the capital region of Stockholm recently published a "Contract for the future – for the Stockholm region". The first of four points is entitled: "No one who can work should be on social security". The Dagens Nyheter (DN) newspaper reported that, on the national level, the party has gone even further. A new goal is to sign an “education contract” with those under 25-years-old who have not completed their studies. According to DN, "Those who are not ready to fulfill their studies according to an individual study plan will not be granted social security".

This idea, put forth by former Social Democratic school minister Ibrahim Baylan, was rapidly attacked by the left. Daniel Suhonen, president for the left-leaning think tank Katalys and himself a Social Democrat, criticized the proposal as being "very right-wing".

Of course, the Social Democrats do not simply want to put pressure on youth who depend on social security; they also want to direct various forms of aid to help these individuals succeed to attain their upper-secondary school degrees. The idea seems to be to connect public handouts to a requirement that young people participate in education programmes. And presumably, exceptions will be made for those who, for various reasons, cannot be expected to participate.

We shouldn’t be surprised if the Social Democrats eventually retract their proposal, or at least clarify it, in the wake of initial criticism. And many question if the party really wants to introduce such a welfare reform, as it goes against the idea that basic safety nets be granted to all, regardless of their individual behavior.

But should we really be surprised? In the United States, the  “Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act”, which marked a fundamental shift in both the methods and goals of federal cash assistance to the poor in the US, was supported by the Republicans but signed into law by Democrat Bill Clinton in 1996.

Changing the fundamentals of social security might, if implemented correctly, retain basic safety nets while reducing the risk of long-term welfare dependency. Most likely, the Social Democrats are striving towards this goal. And like Bill Clinton, they might have a better chance of actually implementing such a change than a center-right government. As the famous saying goes, “only Nixon could go to China”.

It might seem as a shock that Swedish Social Democrats would go so far in challenging generous public benefits. But then again, in neighboring Denmark, which has an ever bigger welfare state, this has been a common practice during the latest few years. Social Democrat Finance Minister Bjarne Corydon last year explained: “If we are to ensure support for the welfare state, we must focus on the quality of public services rather than transfer payments”.

Of course, these ideas can be seen as a way of winning over centrist voters during the election campaign. And they likely have limited support within the party ranks. But they are, nevertheless, put forth by leading Social Democrats. This shift seems very similar to the move towards the center by the Moderates, as they begun morphing into the “New Moderates” in 2005.

An important issue in the upcoming election, of course, is how this new line in Social Democrat policy sits with the left-wing of the labour movement. And for that matter, if the left parties win the election, how will the Social Democrats co-operate with the Left Party, where radical left ideas are still prominent and welfare reform isn't even on the agenda? The only thing that is clear is that Social Democrat party leader Stefan Löfven really wants to make the distinction between right and left in Swedish politics even more difficult. 

Dr. Nima Sanandaji, a Swedish writer of Kurdish origin, has written numerous books and reports about policy issues in Sweden. He is a regular contributor to The Local.

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POLITICS IN SWEDEN

Politics in Sweden: This year’s EU election will be a white-knuckle ride for smaller parties

With as many as three of Sweden's parties at risk of being kicked out of the European parliament, the stakes in this year's European elections are higher perhaps than ever before.

According to the latest polling by Verian for Swedish public broadcaster SVT, one party – the Liberals – is already polling below the formal four percent threshold to enter the European Parliament, but two more, the Christian Democrats and the Centre Party, are worryingly close, with each polling at both 4.5 percent. 

If the poll is right, the Social Democrats are set to be the big winners in the election, gaining two additional seats, while the Left Party and the far-right Sweden Democrats are both in line to gain one additional seat.

But as well as the Liberal Party, the Centre Party, Christian Democrats, and Green Party all set to lose one seat each, but as they each currently have more than one seat, they will nonetheless keep their representation in parliament. 

Tommy Möller, a professor of politics at Stockholm University, told the TT newswire that the two parties likely to be the most worried ahead of election day on June 9th are the Liberals and the Centre Party. 

For the Liberals, it matters partly because it has long seen itself as Sweden's most pro-EU party. At its highpoint 15 years ago, it had three seats in the EU parliament, but it sank to just one in the 2020 European elections.

If the party were now to lose the last of its seats, the leadership of party chairman Johan Persson, Möller argued, would be put into question. 

"This could prompt an internal debate on party leadership," he told the TT newswire. "There's no doubt that if the Liberals, who (...) promote themselves as the most pro-EU party, lost its mandate, it would be a massive blow."  

He said he would also not rule out a leadership challenge against the Centre Party's leader Muharrem Demirok should his party lose both its seats in the EU parliament, given how badly he has struggled as leader to gain any visibility with voters .

"Obviously the Centre Party is fighting an uphill battle in the opinion polls. If it loses its seat, that would obviously add to the lack of confidence in the party leader, which could prompt an internal leadership debate," Möller said. 

For the Christian Democrats, the Verian poll is in some ways encouraging. Thus far the indications are that Folklistan, the party formed by the former Christian Democrat MEP Sara Skyttedal, is far below the 4 percent threshold, with only an estimated 1.5 percent of the vote.

While it is no doubt nibbling away at Christian Democrat support, it has so far not managed to drag the party down to the 4 percent threshold. 

Möller said he did not expect anyone to call for party leader Ebba Busch to stand down, almost regardless of the result.  

"I don't think there will be calls for her resignation, but obviously, the mandate you have as a leader is always linked to how well its going for the party in opinion polls and elections," he said.  

Return of the Greens?

Even though they are projected to lose one of their seats, if the Green Party succeeds in winning 9.5 percent of the vote on June 9th, as the polls suggest, it will still be seen as decent result, showing that the party, which has been struggling in domestic politics, at least does well in the EU elections.

If the party retains its third seat, it will be seen as a resounding victory. 

According to a popularity poll by the Aftonbladet newspaper, the party's lead MEP, Alice Bah Kuhnke, is both the second most popular politician standing in the election and the most unpopular, reflecting just how polarising party has become in Sweden. 

In the poll, 30 percent of respondents said they had high or very high confidence in Bah Kuhnke, second only to the Left Party's candidate and former leader, Jonas Sjöstedt, on 42 percent. But at the same time, 64 percent of respondents said they had "low confidence" in her.  

According to Johan Martinsson, the head of opinion research at Demoskop, who carried out the poll, this should not worry the Greens too much.

"As long as the relevant group of voters have a large amount of confidence, it doesn't really make any difference if you are despised by those who oppose you. It can almost be a good thing as it makes it easier to get attention."

Could the election mark a turnaround for the party, which has voted in two new leaders this year? 

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