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More Swedes expect falling real estate prices

A new study by the bank SEB shows that more and more Swedish households are expecting housing prices to fall.

Published: 11 February 2008 11:02 CET

More Swedes expect falling real estate prices

Of those surveyed, 37 percent believe that housing prices will fall in the coming year.

Compared with last month’s 31 percent, the new figure represents a 6 percent rise in the number of households feeling pessimistic about housing values.

Similarly, the number of respondents believing that real estate prices will increase has dropped from 39 percent to 32 percent.

“Negative economic prognoses, dropping apartment prices, and a falling stock market have given households a gloomy view of the housing market. Interest rates that are two percentage points higher than a few years ago are also straining living costs for households wishing to buy,” said SEB’s Gunilla Nyström in a statement.

The housing price indicators show as well that fewer households are planning to lock in interest rates on their mortgages.

Only four percent of those surveyed who have fully- or partially-variable mortgage rates are planning to move to fixed rates in the next three months. That is the lowest level since SEB started their survey in 2003.

The results of the study come from the responses of 1,002 interviews conducted between January 30th and February 6th by the polling group Demoskop.

Why buying property in Austria remains unaffordable for most

Many people living in Austria dream of one day owning a home, but despite recent drops in property prices and interest rates, this dream is still out of reach for many average earners.

In Austria, it is recommended to not spend more than 40 percent of a monthly income on debt repayment.

But new analysis by tariff comparison portal durchblicker.at reveals that even a double-income household would need to spend around 60 percent of their income to afford a 90m² new-build apartment in Vienna.

While the government has created initiatives to improve the affordability, with attractive housing packages, fee reductions and eliminations of certain fees, such as the “Grundbucheintragsgebühr” (land register entry fee) and “Pfandrechtseintragungsgebühr” (mortgage registration fee) for properties up to a certain value, their impact has been limited.

Furthermore, the governments initiatives often overlook the specific needs of lower-income households and may benefit those who are already financially stable, leaving the average earner still struggling to afford a home, according to Der Standard.

READ ALSO: ‘Haushaltsversicherung’ – How does Austria’s home insurance work?

High prices, rates and strict lending criteria

One of the biggest barriers to owning a home in Austria is simply the sky-high property prices. Over the years, property prices have increased, making it more difficult for people with an average income to afford a place of their own. Even with recent minor dips in prices, they still remain high.

Another factor making owning a home challenging is the increase in interest rates in recent years. As a result, both existing variable-rate loans and newly obtained fixed-rate loans have become more expensive. Analysts expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by around 0.5 percent in the near future, but according to durchblicker’s calculations, this would initially only create a little relief for loan takers, where instead of around 60 percent, 55 percent of monthly household net income would be needed for debt repayment.

Another issue preventing many from realising their dream to buy a home is the difficulty in obtaining a mortgage. Since July 2022, stricter rules have applied in Austria for the granting of property loans. Loan applicants must have a deposit worth at least 20 percent of the value of their property to be granted a loan, according to the financial online platform Finanz.at. This means that even applicants with higher incomes may struggle to get their dream financed.

Furthermore, many loan takers with variable-rate loans, especially those recently obtained, are facing significant challenges. The variable interest rates have increased significantly since the initiation of these loans, resulting in higher monthly repayments, reported Der Standard.

Few people can afford their own home in Austria, especially in Vienna. Photo by Christian Lendl on Unsplash

Experts suggests fixed rate loans and cooperative housing models

Andreas Ederer, Head of Banking at durchblicker.at, recommends loan takers with variable-rate loans to change to fixed-rate loans. He suggests that fixed-rate loans have become more attractive as they are currently cheaper than variable-rate loans, reported Kurier.

Unlike fixed-rate loans, which have a steady interest rate throughout the loan term, variable-rate loans can change over time in response to shifts in market conditions or the economy.

Experts also suggest alternative models for increasing affordability. One idea is to create more opportunities for cooperative ownership with mandatory purchase options. This could offer a more affordable option where costs such as maintenance and taxes are shared. According to Der Standard, cooperatives also often have access to loans with better terms.

READ NEXT: How can I move into affordable cooperative housing in Vienna?

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