As France goes back to work after the summer holidays, president Emanuel Macron is grappling with several seemingly intractable problems while facing an increasingly hostile French public – it’s almost enough to make you feel sorry for the man. Almost.
No government
The most urgent problem is that France doesn’t actually have a functioning government, since inconclusive snap parliamentary elections in July produced a political stalemate.
After 51 days of wrangling, Macron finally found a prime minister who wouldn’t face an immediate no-confidence vote in parliament. However the right-wing, ex EU negotiator Michel Barnier is very far from being a consensus choice and is still struggling to form a government.
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At present the ministers from the previous government remain nominally in their posts as ministères demmissionaires (resigned ministers) dealing only with urgent matters in their portfolio until new ministers can be appointed.
Even once a government is created – likely next week – it remains far from clear whether Barnier will be able to muster enough support in order to get any bills through parliament, including the crucial 2025 budget.
Financial crisis
There’s never a good time for political instability, but this has come at an especially bad time for France, which is facing a looming financial crisis due to a ballooning budget deficit and threats from ratings agencies to downgrade the country’s credit rating.
Political columnist John Lichfield described the situation as “the most complex and potentially disastrous financial mess confronted by any French government since the war”.
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Tough financial choices will be required in the 2025 budget but there’s no clear consensus on whether these should be tax increases, budget cuts, both or neither.
Watching from the sidelines will be the ratings agencies, which spared France a downgrade in the summer but have made clear their concerns, and the EU which is increasingly impatient with France for failing to manage its budget obligations.
Services and cost of living
French voters have become increasingly impatient with what they see as a fall in standards of public services such as schools and healthcare, coupled with a rising cost of living, which leaves many French households struggling to make ends meet at the end of the month.
The prospect of tax rises, service cuts or both are unlikely to improve their mood.
Meanwhile any serious or long-term plans to improve things like France’s schools, or access to healthcare in rural areas are likely to be submerged beneath the ongoing parliamentary chaos.
EU and foreign problems
There are storm clouds on the horizon outside France too, not only France’s budget problems with the EU.
The ‘twin engine’ of the EU – France and Germany – has been faltering for some time, for all Macron’s efforts, meanwhile war still rages in Europe and Vladimir Putin’s Russia is as big a threat as ever.
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On the other side of the Atlantic, the US faces a knife-edge election in November, with the prospect of a second term for Donald Trump proving deeply worrying for European leaders.
Post-Olympics blues
On top of the very real problems that the country faces, there is the risk of France falling into a post-Olympics slump after surfing the high of a magical summer of sport.
Despite initial scepticism, in the end the French truly embraced the Olympics and Paralympics, turning out in huge numbers and providing vocal support for French stars like swimmer Léon Marchand, judoka Teddy Riner, para cyclist Marie Patouillet and the table-tennis playing Lebrun brothers.
A spirit of joy and positivity infused Paris – until the closing ceremony of the Paralympics when the French brought Macron firmly back to earth by booing and whistling at him.
Has the French population already used up its annual capacity for happiness? Some of the memes would suggest so.
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