Alternative for Germany (AfD) swept to victory in the Thuringia state parliament election on Sunday, securing nearly 33 percent of the vote.
It is the first time a far-right party has won a state election in Germany since the Second World War.
Meanwhile, in Saxony the AfD was narrowly beaten by the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) – but still made major gains.
You can read our full analysis on the election results and the bigger picture here:
But what do the results mean for immigrants in Germany, particularly those in Thuringia and Saxony?
How many foreigners live in the states?
Germany’s foreign population is larger in western German cities, but many foreign residents choose eastern regions for different reasons.
For example, there are many universities in eastern states. There are big cities like Leipzig and Dresden and living costs tend to be lower, especially compared to the likes of Berlin, Munich and Hamburg.
Thuringia is home to around 2.1 million people. In 2023, around 176,500 foreign residents lived in the state, which amounts to 8.3 percent of the population, Statista figures show.
In Saxony, home to about 3.8 million people, 8.1 percent of the population – or 332,400 people – are foreign residents.
The state or city-state with the highest proportion of non-Germans living there is Berlin, where 20.3 percent of the population is foreign.
Nationwide, the proportion of foreigners in Germany is 15.2 percent.
Do the results mean the AfD will enter into power?
The AfD is the strongest force in Thuringia, while in Saxony the party is just behind the CDU. However, it is unlikely that the AfD will govern in either of the states.
That’s because no other party wants to form a coalition with it, i.e. work together. This is known as the political Brandmauer or firewall.
Coalition governments are the norm in Germany at federal and state level, and mainstream parties have always ruled out collaboration with the far-right.
“Voters know that we do not form coalitions with the AfD,” said Carsten Linnemann, the general secretary of the conservative CDU.
Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the Social Democrats (SPD), said: “All democratic parties are now called upon to form stable governments without right-wing extremists.”
Among the biggest losers of the election were the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) who fell short of the five percent threshold to make it into parliament in Thuringia.
Following the results, Madeleine Henfling, the Green party’s top candidate in Thuringia, told The Local her party was dealing with “great disappointment”.
She added: “The strength of the AfD in Thuringia worries me. Above all, because I believe that this will also unleash a mood in Thuringia that may have remained hidden until now.
“It now depends on the democratic parties in the Thuringian state parliament how much power they give the AfD. All democratic forces must deal with this responsibly.”
Even if the party is not in power, the AfD will have more influence, for example by being able to block votes in some cases or shaping the agenda.
Another possible outcome in the medium to long term is that parties in Germany will move further to the right to try and cater for AfD voters – something we’ve arguably seen already on issues such as ‘irregular’ migration.
Henfling said: “Through its seats in parliament alone, it has a major influence on the formation of political will in the coming years.”
READ ALSO: Why support for the far-right AfD is surging in eastern Germany
Will foreign residents want to move away from these states?
For people already living in an area with high AfD support, the decision on whether to remain there or leave will be a personal one and many factors will be taken into account.
But the anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric from the AfD – including from their high profile figures – is loud and clear, and getting more worrying.
Earlier this year, German news outlet Correctiv exposed a meeting of far-right extremists that took place near Potsdam in November 2023.
The investigation detailed AfD members and other individuals reportedly talking about a concept called ‘remigration’ – which would involve the mass deportation of immigrants and “non-assimilated citizens” from Germany – in the event of the party coming to power.
The party tried to distance itself from the remigration proposals but there was widespread outrage.
READ ALSO: How worried should Germany be about the far-right AfD after mass deportation scandal?
Henfling, from the Green party in Thuringia, said: “In my opinion, people who do not fit into the AfD’s worldview will have to be particularly careful in the next few years. That makes me sad.”
She urged for communities to show solidarity with people from minorities in the region, and called for more support for anyone facing hostility and attacks.
“In addition, it is important to form networks to offer protection against exclusion and attacks,” she added.
How valuable are foreign residents to eastern Germany?
Massively so. Apart from helping to promote diversity and boosting populations, there is a huge economic bonus to immigration to eastern Germany.
A recent study by the German Economic Institute (IW) found the number of foreign employees in the eastern German states is increasing, while Germany-born workers are declining.
In 2023, around 403,000 people without a German passport were working in the five eastern German states, around 173,000 more than just five years previously.
“They alone generated €24.6 billion – equivalent to 5.8 percent of the gross value added in eastern Germany,” said the IW study.
“Foreign employees are therefore indispensable for the east,” said the IW. “Between 2018 and 2023, the number of German employees shrank by 116,000. Without new foreigners, the economy would have declined noticeably – instead, it has grown.”
Saxony in particular benefited from this, where foreigners generated around €7.9 billion. Brandenburg, with a significantly smaller overall economy, recorded €6.8 billion and Thuringia €3.9 billion.
In general, Germany is desperate for more skilled workers from abroad to plug the labour shortage.
READ ALSO: ‘Germany needs you’ – Labour Minister’s plea to skilled workers from India
Are people standing up to the far-right in Germany?
A huge number of people in Germany – from all nationalities and backgrounds – are worried about the growing popularity of far-right politics and have been speaking out or demonstrating about it.
There have been regular protests against what the AfD stands for across Germany. Even in Erfurt, the capital of Thuringia, thousands of people were on the streets at the weekend.
Politicians, political analysts, cultural figures, community heads and businesses have also been raising concerns and campaigning against the far-right.
In an unusual move, the supermarket Edeka released an advert last week saying that blue – the AfD’s signature colour – was not a good choice.
READ ALSO: Inside Germany – Inflation falls, Edeka’s far-right stand and school traditions
Chancellor Scholz called the results “bitter” and “worrying”.
“The AfD is damaging Germany. It is weakening the economy, dividing society and ruining our country’s reputation,” he said.
This shows there is plenty of opposition to the party, which has been classified as a threat to democracy by the office for the protection of the constitution.
But what happens next is something everyone across Germany – especially those with a migration background – will be watching closely.
With a federal election scheduled for autumn 2025 – where the AfD is currently polling in second place behind the CDU – it remains to be seen how drastically the German political landscape will change.
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