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Why support for the far-right AfD is set to surge in eastern Germany

Voters in two former East German states will go to the polls on Sunday in what could be a rough night for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government, with the far-right AfD expected to make big gains.

Published: 28 August 2024 09:28 CEST

A car drives past a billboard displaying an election campaign poster for Alternative for Germany (AfD) with the lettering 'The east is doing it - class in German' in Altenburg, eastern Germany on August 20th. Photo by JENS SCHLUETER / AFP

The elections in Thuringia and Saxony come just a week after three people were stabbed to death in the western city of Solingen, allegedly by a Syrian asylum seeker, in an attack that has shocked Germany and fuelled a bitter debate about immigration.

Opinion polls have the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) as the biggest party in Thuringia on around 30 percent, while in Saxony it is running neck-and-neck for first place with the conservative CDU.

The AfD is unlikely to come to power in either state, even if it wins, as other parties have ruled out collaborating with it to form a majority.

But the result would still be a humiliating slapdown for Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the other parties in his governing coalition, the Greens and the liberal FDP, as they look ahead to Germany’s national election next year.

In both states, Scholz’s SPD is polling at around six percent.

A third former East German state, Brandenburg, is also due to hold an election later in September, with the AfD also leading there on around 24 percent.

The picture in each state is slightly different but “in any case, it is clear that the AfD will unite a very strong number of votes behind it”, Marianne Kneuer, a professor of politics at the Dresden University of Technology (TU Dresden), told AFP.

Besides causing a headache for Scholz’s coalition, the election could also have international implications if it gives a boost to parties that oppose continued support for Ukraine.

‘Dissatisfied protest voters’

Created in 2013 as an anti-euro group before morphing into an anti-immigration party, the AfD has enjoyed a resurgence over the past 12 months as Germany struggles with a rise in migration and a stumbling economy.

The AfD has also capitalised on dissatisfaction with the three-way coalition government in Berlin that has been plagued by disagreements and stalemate, most recently a protracted dispute over the 2025 budget.

In June’s EU Parliament elections, the party scored a record 15.9 percent overall and did especially well in eastern Germany, where it emerged as the biggest force.

Björn Höcke, leader and top candidate of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Thuringia, signs his autograph on a large German national flag belonging to supporters after addressing an election campaign event in Apolda, eastern Germany on August 18, 2024. Photo by JENS SCHLUETER / AFP

The AfD has also notched up several local successes including its first city mayor, but a victory in Thuringia or Saxony on Sunday would be the first time it has won a state election.

The AfD is especially strong in the former communist East Germany partly “because it has a core of voters there who can identify with its nationalist and authoritarian positions”, according to Kneuer.

But the party’s popularity there can also be put down to “a large proportion of dissatisfied protest voters who turn to the AFD because they don’t want to vote for any other party”, she said.

Saxony is the most populous former East German state, with around four million inhabitants and several large cities including Leipzig, Dresden and Chemnitz.

Thuringia, which has a population of around two million and whose biggest city is Erfurt, is the only state to currently have a leader, Bodo Ramelow, from the far-left Die Linke party.

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‘The right party’

After struggling economically for years after reunification, eastern Germany has recently seen higher growth than western Germany and wage increases have also been higher.

But “despite these positive economic developments, differences and injustices persist (between east and west)”, according to Carsten Schneider, the government’s commissioner for East German affairs.

Stefan Angelov, 35, a security guard from Jena, the second-largest city in Thuringia, said the AfD was “the right party” to vote for, “especially after the attack in Solingen”.

“Open borders, anyone can come in… with who-knows-what in their hands,” said Angelov, who is originally from Bulgaria but has been living in Jena for 10 years.

BSW, a new party formed by popular left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht after she defected from the Die Linke, is also polling well in all three states.

BSW has enjoyed a swell of support for its stance against weapons deliveries to Ukraine and won six percent in June’s EU elections.

“It is possible that BSW could become an important factor in forming a coalition in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony,” Kneuer said.

By Femke COLBORNE

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How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

Following the fatal knife attack last Friday in the western German city of Solingen allegedly by a failed Syrian asylum seeker with links to the Islamic State (IS) group, the topic of migration in Germany is reaching boiling point.

Earlier this week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the Social Democrats (SPD) pledged to tighten weapons controls and look at how to better enforce existing deportation rules.

He said his government would have to do “everything we can to ensure that those who cannot and should not stay here in Germany are repatriated and deported” and that deportations would be sped up if necessary.

On Tuesday, Friedrich Merz, head of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), the largest party in opposition to the German government, met with Scholz, in what was dubbed the ‘Solingen Summit’ by German media.

Why are leaders from opposed parties meeting?

The 70-minute long meeting between Merz and Scholz on Tuesday involved Merz piling pressure on the government to limit so-called irregular migration – that means people coming to Germany not through the usual channels like applying for and getting a visa.

Merz called for a “turning point” in what he described as Germany’s “naïve” migration policy.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz at a press conference on Tuesday.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz at a press conference on Tuesday. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Kay Nietfeld

After the attack, Merz demanded an end to taking in refugees from Syria and Afghanistan and called for controls on all of Germany’s borders. However, this raised questions over compatibility with German and EU law.

In an unexpected political move, Merz said he offered Scholz a chance to work together on revamping migration policy, even without the SPD’s other governing coalition parties, the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP). But Merz’s apparent olive branch would potentially cause a break-up of the coalition government.

Other measures the CDU/CSU has floated include that rejected asylum seekers be immediately deported back to Syria and Afghanistan and that any refugees that travel from Germany to their home country lose their German residence status.

As well as permanent controls at the EU’s external borders, the conservatives also want to give more power to the federal police.

Merz is also controversially proposing the declaration of a “national emergency” which could override EU law, and ensure that migrants who have first travelled to another EU country are turned back at the German borders.

According to the CDU leader, Scholz did not respond to the proposal during the meeting. “He did not spontaneously express any approval,” said Merz.

What’s the reaction?

The meeting has caused an huge row and division in German politics.

Some members of the coalition say that in calling for legally questionable actions on migration reform, Merz is stirring the pot ahead of coming state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, where his CDU party in a tight race against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

At a campaign appearance on Tuesday afternoon in Jena, Thuringia, Scholz said the idea of the government and opposition working together is “never a bad thing”.

However, the chancellor was keen to stress that Germany would continue to support people who are forced to flee their country due to being persecuted.

“The individual right to asylum will be preserved. This is written in our Basic Law. And no one will question that with my support,” said Scholz on Wednesday morning to ZDF’s heute journal.

Other politicians have said Merz’s tone is fuelling hate.

Parliamentary Secretary of the Green Party, Irene Mihalic told German newspaper Bild: “The leader of the largest opposition parliamentary group…is floundering instead of living up to his responsibilities.”

She said that by using language like ‘national emergency’, Merz “is to a certain extent passing a vote of no confidence in our democratic constitutional state instead of defending it against its enemies”.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lays flowers in Solingen along with local leaders following the deadly rampage.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lays flowers in Solingen along with local leaders following the deadly rampage. Photo by INA FASSBENDER / AFP)

Mihalic said all democratic parties should come together to develop solutions against terror.

“We are ready to talk about all constructive proposals that are compatible with the constitution, fundamental rights and human rights,” she said.

However, the tone of the debate urgently needs to change, she said, “otherwise we will end up playing into the hands of the extremist enemies of our democratic constitutional state”.

For his part, FDP leader Christian Lindner did not respond to Merz’s proposals but offered cooperation. “The FDP is ready for cross-party efforts to consistently implement new realism in migration at federal and state level,” Lindner told Bild.

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