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ECONOMY

Swedish finance minister opens up for rise in spending in next budget

Sweden's finance minister, Elizabeth Svantesson, has revealed that she has 60 billion free to spend on tax cuts or new measures, as she signalled a more expansive fiscal policy for 2025.

Swedish finance minister opens up for rise in spending in next budget
Sweden's finance minister Elisabeth Svantesson gave an update on the Swedish economy at Harpsund, the PM's country house outside Stockholm where budget talks are ongoing. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/TT

The finance ministry has set the so-called reformutrymme, literally “space for reforms”, at 60 billion, up from the 40 billion of spare cash the government had for new measures in its 2024 budget, which she said would be allocated both towards putting more money directly in people’s pockets and towards investment in welfare and infrastructure. 

“It’s not all wrapped up yet, but a lot of it is wrapped up,” Svantesson said of the ongoing budget discussions between the three government parties and the far-right Sweden Democrats. “We believe that 60 billion kronor is a good balance. It’s a significant rise from this year.”

She said the 20 billion kronor in increased spending room would enable the government to be bolder in its plans, and could also be augmented by making cuts in some places in order to free up money for spending elsewhere. 

  • Don’t miss The Local’s news and analysis about the state of the Swedish economy by downloading our app (available on Apple and Android) and then selecting Economy in your Notification options via the User button

“Then we can do a lot more if we prioritise in other ways: if you don’t promise something for everyone, but instead do what you think is important,” she said.

She promised proposals to boost household spending power and stimulate the economy, something she said was necessary given that Sweden remained in an economic slump.  

“In a long-drawn-out economic downturn the economy needs to be stimulated,” she said. 

At the same time as the press conference, the government adjusted down its forecast for the economy, with GDP growth for 2024 reduced from the 1.4 percent forecast in June to 0.8 percent. 

It expects GDP growth to be higher in 2025, however, increasing the forecast from 2.4 percent to 2.5 percent. The unemployment rate for both 2024 and 2025 is predicted to be 8.3 percent, a slight reduction from June’s forecast. 

The government expects inflation to come in at 2.8 percent in 2024, falling to 0.9 percent in 2025. 

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ECONOMY

Sweden’s mortgage war heats up as banks race to cut rates

Sweden's central bank lowered the key interest rate again by 0.25 percentage points on August 20th, while adding that it may cut rates two or three more times before the year is out. Which banks are cutting their rates in response?

Sweden's mortgage war heats up as banks race to cut rates

One of Sweden’s largest mortgage providers, state-owned mortgage bank SBAB, lowered its variable mortgage rate by 0.10 percentage points and its fixed-rate mortgages by 0.10-0.25 percentage points on August 21st, the day after the Riksbank’s decision to cut the policy rate.

The policy rate is the central bank’s main monetary policy tool. It decides which rates Swedish banks can deposit in and borrow money from the Riksbank, which in turn affects the banks’ own interest rates on savings, loans and mortgages.

“The Riksbank’s lowering of the policy rate means that the our borrowing costs as a bank are lower, which means we can further reduce mortgage rates,” SBAB’s CEO Mikael Inglander said in a press release.

Swedbank quickly followed suit and cut rates on all its mortgages by 0.05-0.10 percentage points.

  • Don’t miss The Local’s news and analysis about the state of the Swedish economy by downloading our app (available on Apple and Android) and then selecting Economy in your Notification options via the User button

Danske Bank on Tuesday lowered its variable mortgage rate by 0.20 percentage points and Nordea 0.10 percentage points.

Swedbank also cut interest rates on its savings accounts by 0.25 percentage points and 0.10 on private accounts, and SBAB cut its savings account rates by 0.25 percentage points.

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How low is the policy rate now, and how low could it get?

The policy rate currently stands at 3.5 percent, down from 3.75 percent, with the next announcement scheduled for September 25th.

If inflation continues to follow expectations, then the central bank has said that it could lower rates faster than predicted in June – two or three more times this year.

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There are announcements scheduled for September, November and December, so this means that we could potentially be in for four consecutive interest rate cuts before the end of the year.

Predictions from the bank indicate that the policy rate could dip below 3 percent this year, dropping below 2 percent in the latter half of 2025.

This doesn’t mean that interest rates on mortgages will drop below 2 percent by the end of 2025, but we can (probably) expect them to be substantially lower than they were at the end of 2023. The policy rate doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, but there’s an indirect effect.

The policy rate and key interest rate expectations based on market expectations

Diagram showing the key interest rate and market expectations. Full lines indicate expectations as of August 16th, 2024 while dashed lines are expectations in June. Sweden is in dark blue, Eurozone in red, USA in light blue and UK in yellow. Source: National central banks and the Riksbank.
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