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POLITICS IN SWEDEN

Politics in Sweden: Should we expect tax cuts in the next budget?

Sweden's finance minister Elisabeth Svantesson has declared the battle against inflation won, and Sweden's official inflation figure has dropped below the 2 percent target. Does this mean we can expect tax cuts next year?

Politics in Sweden: Should we expect tax cuts in the next budget?
Elisabeth Svantesson declares the battle against inflation over at a press conference on June 24th. Photo: Lars Schröder/TT

At the end of June, Svantesson declared the battle against inflation won at a press conference, driving the point home with a joint debate article with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and interviews in the Dagens Nyheter newspaper and on Sweden’s public broadcaster SR. 

“The battle against inflation is won,” she said in a press release. “For that reason we are now focusing on making Sweden richer again.” 

This puts an end to the cautious fiscal policy Svantesson has driven in her 2023 and 2024 budgets. She has thrown Moderate Party supporters none of the juicy tax cuts they normally expect from the party — saying that this would be inflationary — leading to internal grumbling both in the party and outside it. 

The Moderates even paused an automatic tax cut for high earners to finance a tax cut for low earners back in September, raising eyebrows among party colleagues, some of whom accused the government of pushing Social Democrat policies.

READ ALSO: Politics in Sweden: Are the Moderates leading a ‘socialist government’?

So is Svantesson now going to deliver on tax cuts for all, and if so, what will that mean for your tax bills? 

What tax proposals are out there? 

Despite the triumphant tone, Svantesson was reluctant to give details of which tax cuts she was planing for the 2025 budget on the table this autumn. 

“This needs to be negotiated,” she told the Dagens Nyheter newspaper. “We will come back with exactly which proposals will be part of the autumn budget but we are agreed that we want to strengthen households’ purchasing power.” 

But in the spring, the government has announced a barrage of potential tax cuts, with several put out for consultation, including: 

  • An increase in the employment tax credit or jobbskatteavdraget, which is an income tax credit for anyone with a job. This she said would reduce the annual tax bill of working people by 1,900 kronor and cost a total of 8.1 billion kronor.
  • An extension of ‘expert tax relief’, a special tax regime designed to encourage foreign researchers and highly skilled workers to come to Sweden. 
  • Changes to the 3:12 rules on the taxation of dividends from closely held or family-owned companies (although this was proposed to come into force at the start of 2026).
  • No tax on the first 300,000 kronor saved in an ISK account. 

How much of this will get into the 2024 budget? 

Oscar Warglo, tax advisor at PwC, agreed that the declaration that the battle against inflation was at an end increased Svantesson’s leeway to make more agressive tax cuts. 

“Svantesson said in an interview a few months ago that we’ll see which of these we can afford. So they have three rather big amendments to tax law in the pipeline, and if inflation is coming down, hopefully, they will go ahead with all of those,” he said. 

But he suggested that it was wrong to portray the increase in government activity around tax as purely the result of a changed economic situation, as the government are starting to run out of time to bring in tax reductions before the 2026 election.  

“I see it as a bit more political: they need to do some things because they promised to do this when they went to the election and they haven’t done so much. So in a sense, it’s political. They need to do something before we get into the next election year.” 

Politics in Sweden is The Local’s weekly analysis, guide or look ahead to what’s coming up in Swedish politics. Update your newsletter settings to receive it directly to your inbox. 

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ECONOMY

Fresh figures show that Sweden’s GDP fell in the second quarter of the year

The Swedish economy shrank in the second quarter as household spending and investment fell, official data show.

Fresh figures show that Sweden's GDP fell in the second quarter of the year

The country’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.3 percent compared to the first quarter, when it grew 0.7 percent, according to Statistics Sweden.

“GDP decreased slightly in the second quarter. The downturn in the economy was wide but offset by the foreign trade in goods, where exports increased and imports decreased,” said Jessica Engdahl, head of national accounts at Statistics Sweden.

Household consumption fell by 0.2 percent, with lower spending on food and non-alcoholic drinks leading the decline.

Investment declined by 1.7 percent.

Economists expect the Swedish economy to strengthen by the end of the year as inflation eases and interest rates fall.

The Swedish central bank cut rates for the second time this year in August.

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