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ELECTIONS

Is France facing a summer of political chaos and unrest?

All eyes were supposed to be on Paris this summer as the French capital lays on the sporting extravaganza of the Olympics - but will attention instead be fixed on the chaotic political situation and possible unrest on the streets?

Is France facing a summer of political chaos and unrest?
A demonstrator holds a flare during a rally against far-right after the announcement of the results of the first round of parliamentary elections, at Place de la Republique in Paris on June 30, 2024. (Photo by Geoffroy VAN DER HASSELT / AFP)

One of French president Emmanuel Macron’s stated aims in calling a snap parliamentary election – three years earlier than scheduled – was to provide some political clarity.

To say that this failed would be a considerable understatement.

While the electorate did issue a firm rejection of the far-right Rassemblement National, the parliament is now hopelessly divided with no party even close to a majority and the country entering a period of political chaos and uncertainty unsurpassed since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958.

As the political wrangling continues, there are calls for French people to take to the streets over what is seen as a “denial of democracy”.

So what happens now? 

Current government 

For the moment, France does still have a government in place. President Emmanuel Macron remains in post – as he was always going to since in France the president is elected separately to the parliament.

Prime minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation to Macron the day after the elections but Macron asked him to stay on until a new government could be created. So he remains in post, and all the ministers remain in post – and therefore could take decisions in case of emergency.

This is, however, only a temporary solution and a new government will need to be created sooner or later.

The new government 

Forming a new government, however, is likely to be very complicated indeed, due to the fact that no party or group won an overall majority at the elections and in fact the parliament is now split into three mutually detesting groups – the far-right, the centrists and the left alliance.

Graphic showing the make-up of the French parliament after the 2024 legislative elections. Graphic: AFP

In order to create a government, either the centre or the left will need to find new allies to take them up to the magic number of 289 – the number of seats required for a majority. At present the left alliance has 193 seats and the centrists 164, so either of them would need to find a significant number of new allies.

Adding to the complication is that many of these groups loathe each other, and France has no tradition of coalition governments so this is uncharted waters for everybody.

Negotiations may be lengthy.

The role of Macron 

In France a prime minister is not directly elected, it is the president who appoints the prime minister – if the president’s party has a majority then this is essentially a personal choice for the president.

If the president’s party doesn’t have a majority, then the largest group can nominate a prime minister, although it still reliant on the president accepting their candidate.

Technically Macron can appoint anyone he likes as PM – but the prime minister can be deposed if a majority of MPs in parliament support a no-confidence vote (motion de censure). There is therefore little point in Macron picking someone who will immediately be voted out by MPs.

Unrest on the streets

But not everyone is content to wait while negotiations continue behind the scenes – especially the voters of the left who feel that any attempt to install a non-leftist PM would be a denial of democracy since they did, after all, finish the election as the largest group.

Adrien Quatennens, formerly an MP for the far left La France Insoumise until he was forced to stand down after a conviction for domestic assault, called for a “march on Matignon” – the residence of the prime minister.

This is not the official position of the party, however, LFI leader Manuel Bompard told LCI radio: “What Adrien Quatennens is saying, and I agree with him, is that the President gives the impression that he is looking for every way to ignore the results of the elections . .  Yes, there must be the conditions for a popular mobilisation to say: ‘No, Mr President, you must respect the results of the legislative elections’.”

However, he added: “If it reassures you, La France Insoumise is not calling for a march on Matignon”.

The far-right have slammed Quatennens’ call as “a Washington Capitol moment” – referring to the January 6th attack on the US Capitol building by supporters of defeated president Donald Trump.

However a prolonged period of political deadlock could lead to street protests or demos in the weeks to come – albeit more likely to be formally organised marches.

But doesn’t France usually shut down over the summer?

It’s true that the political world usually takes a break over the summer with parliament in recess and politicians retreating to the seaside or the country for a little downtime.

Parliamentary rules mean that parliament must sit for at least 15 days after being recalled – or up until August 2nd – but it’s not clear whether or not that session will be extended.

It’s possible that a deal could be agreed to install a caretaker prime minister over the summer, and then make a final decision on groups and a PM when parliament restarts in September.

This would have the added bonus of providing some political stability over the summer as Paris hosts the Olympics.

Paris’ socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo is in favour of this option, saying that she wants the Attal government to remain to “manage day-to-day business” during the Games.

As for interior minister Gérald Darmanin, he “did a very good job on the Games”, she told France Inter.

Will all this affect the Olympics?

On a practical level probably not, the election took place just three weeks before the start of the Olympics, by which time planning for the event was largely complete.

The government doesn’t get directly involved in organising the Games – that is done by the Paris organising committee, the International Olympic Committee and Paris city hall – although ministers have been involved in issues like security and policing for the event.

Government-level decisions such as legal dispensation to allow face-recognition software were taken long in advance and now the day-to-day organisation of each event is in the hands of the organisers.

The Prime Minister was never scheduled to play an official role in the Games, representing France will be Anne Hidalgo as mayor of host city Paris – and president Emmanuel Macron.

The political chaos is, however, likely to steal focus from the Games and is certainly not the image that France was hoping to project to the world.

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PARIS

What we know about the Paris Olympics opening ceremony

Many aspects of the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics remain a closely guarded secret - but in the past week organisers have begun dropping hints about what to expect on Friday . . .

What we know about the Paris Olympics opening ceremony

Organisers of Friday’s opening ceremony for the Paris Olympics – the first time it will be held outside a stadium – have provided teasers for their spectacular plans but refused to give specifics.

Although tickets for the spectacle have long sold out there will be dozens of fan zones throughout the city showing it on big screens, as as blanket worldwide TV coverage.

READ ALSO Where to watch the Paris Olympics opening ceremony

Here is what we know about the concept, the artists and music based on public statements over the last few months and press leaks:

Overview

Instead of using the main athletics stadium for the opening parade, as is customary, organisers have moved the event outside and into the heart of the capital – in keeping with their motto Games Wide Open.

Around 6,000-7,000 athletes are set to sail down a six-kilometre stretch of the river Seine from Pont d’Austerlitz bridge in the east to the Eiffel Tower, on 85 barges and boats.

Up to 500,000 people are set to watch in person from specially built stands, where tickets have sold for up to €2,700, on the river banks for free and from the overlooking balconies and apartments.

“Organising a ceremony on the Seine is not easier than doing it in a stadium… but it has more punch,” chief organiser Tony Estanguet told AFP earlier this month.

Because of the size and complexity of the parade, it has never been rehearsed in full.

Entertainment

The show has been designed by prodigious theatre director Thomas Jolly, a 42-year-old known for hit rock-opera musical Starmania.

He brought on board a creative team that includes the writer of French TV series Call My Agent, Fanny Herrero, as well as best-selling author Leila Slimani and renowned historian Patrick Boucheron.

The show has been split into 12 different sections, with around 3,000 dancers, singers and entertainers positioned on both banks of the river, the bridges and nearby monuments.

A tribute to Notre-Dame cathedral, in the process of being renovated after a devastating fire in 2019, is guaranteed, possibly with dancers on its scaffolding.

Starting at 07.30pm, two thirds of the ceremony will take place in daylight, then dusk – Jolly is hoping for one of Paris’s stunning summer sunsets – and will end with a light show.

The music will be a mix of classical, traditional ‘chanson française‘, as well as rap and electro.

Franco-Malian R&B star Aya Nakamura is widely tipped to perform despite criticism from far-right politicians.

French electro superstars Daft Punk said they had turned down an invitation to play, while globe-trotting French DJ David Guetta has been overlooked – much to his irritation.

The message

Asked to sum up his message last week, Jolly said it was “love.”

Despite the risk of irking conservatives, he said his work would be a celebration of cultural, linguistic, religious and sexual diversity in France and around the world.

“I think the people who want to live together in this diversity, this otherness, are much more numerous, but we make less noise,” he told AFP.

It is fair to assume it will be nothing like the widely panned retro-styled opening ceremony of last year’s rugby World Cup, which featured a succession of French clichés from baguettes to berets and the Eiffel Tower.

Jolly’s team is also wary of over-emphasising France’s historic contribution to the development of democracy and the concept of universal human rights thanks to its Enlightenment philosophers and 1789 Revolution.

“We wanted to avoid our natural tendency to lecture people,” Herrero told Le Monde newspaper recently.

And don’t expect a three-hour tribute to French greatness to rival the nationalistic pageantry seen at the Beijing Games in 2008.

“The opening ceremony in Beijing in 2008 was exactly what we did not want to do,” Boucheron told Le Monde.

Big moment

By keeping the details a secret, organisers are hoping to make some impact with big moments and surprises.

A performance by Aya Nakamura, after so much controversy about her role, would be a major moment so soon after parliamentary elections that saw the anti-immigration far-right gain a historic 143 seats in the national parliament.

Jolly has strongly hinted that a submersible or submarine could emerge from the waters of the Seine at some point.

“You have the sky, you have bridges, you have water, you have banks, you have so much space to make poetry,” Jolly told reporters last week. “So why not under the river also?”

The biggest moment of all might simply be the end if everyone gets home safely.

The ceremony has given French police cold sweats ever since it was unveiled in 2021 because of the difficulty of securing so many people over such a vast urban area.

Around 45,000 members of the security forces will be on duty.

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