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ELECTIONS

French election breakdown: Hung parliaments and the far-right’s ‘bad apples’

From the 'bad apples' of Marine Le Pen's party to the chances of a far-right majority and why France doesn't usually have hung parliaments, here's the latest from the final day of campaigning before the decisive second round in the French snap elections.

Published: 5 July 2024 09:08 CEST
French election breakdown: Hung parliaments and the far-right's 'bad apples'
The French proverb says that it only takes one 'scabby sheep' to infect the entire flock. Photo by JEAN-PHILIPPE KSIAZEK / AFP

The final countdown

Well we’re here, heading into the final straight of what has variously been described as the most consequential French election of the Fifth Republic, a turning point for the whole of Europe, and a showdown between ‘extremes’ – suffice to say, this is a big deal.

And it’s even more weird because normally it’s French presidential elections that attract all the attention – parliamentary elections are usually regarded as secondary and only of interest to politics enthusiasts.

The reason that all of this has changed is very simple; Rassemblement National. All current polling predicts that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party will become the biggest in the parliament after these elections. The only question, now, seems to be whether the party will get an absolute majority or not.

We’ve taken a look at what their policies are, who votes for them and – the question that someone always asks – can they still be described as a far-right party?

Candidate problems

The modern party certainly works hard to portray itself as reasonable and competent, but has it really changed from the days of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s leadership? The experts we spoke to reckoned that it hasn’t.

The other clue is in the party’s candidates, and specifically how many of them get caught out using racist, anti-Semitic or homophobic comments, and how many times party leader Jordan Bardella can use the phrase brebis galeuse.

This phrase (literally translating as ‘scabby sheep’) is the French equivalent of a rotten apple – or the time-honoured attempt of leaders to deny that there are institutional problems – it’s just a few bad individuals.

The below meme in the style of Who Wants to be a Millionaire asks ‘Which one of the following RN candidates have withdrawn from the election – the one who said she’s not racist because she has a Jewish ophthalmologist and a Muslim dentist; the one who is under state guardianship because of mental deficiency; the one who was convicted in 1995 of taking a hostage with a weapon; the one who was photographed wearing a Nazi hat?’.

These are all real candidates in these elections and the answer is D. 

Racist remarks and a Nazi hat: The ‘unrepresentative’ candidates of the French far-right

Meanwhile here’s the cartoon from Libération’s Coco showing RN leader Jordan Bardella sacking all his ‘scabby sheep’ candidates and ending up with . . . no candidates.

What now?

Campaigning is officially suspended on Friday evening, with Saturday marking a ‘truce’ day when candidates are not supposed to campaign.

Then on Sunday, the French head to the polls to vote in the decisive second round, which will determine the make-up of the French parliament for (at least) the next year.

Of course the team at The Local will be bringing you all the results from the second round of voting on Sunday night – here’s how to follow the news and when we expect the results. We will also be releasing a special episode of the Talking France podcast on Monday analysing the final results.

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POLITICS

‘Serious political crisis’: Anger grows in France over Macron’s dithering

Almost two months after France's inconclusive legislative elections, impatience is growing with the reluctance of President Emmanuel Macron to name a new prime minister in an unprecedented standoff with opposition parties.

Published: 30 August 2024 15:42 CEST
'Serious political crisis': Anger grows in France over Macron's dithering

Never in the history of the Fifth Republic — which began with constitutional reform in 1958 — has France gone so long without a permanent government, leaving the previous administration led by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal in place as caretakers.

A left-wing coalition emerged from the election as the biggest political force but with nowhere near enough seats for an overall majority, while Macron’s centrist faction and the far-right make up the two other major groups in the National Assembly.

To the fury of the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) coalition, Macron earlier this week rejected their choice of economist and civil servant Lucie Castets, 37, to become premier, arguing a left-wing government would be a “threat to institutional stability”.

Macron insisted during a Thursday visit to Serbia that he was making “every effort” to “achieve the best solution for the country”.

“I will speak to the French people in due time and within the right framework,” he said.

READ MORE: OPINION: Macron is not staging a ‘coup’, nor is he ‘stealing’ the French elections

‘Serious political crisis’

Macron’s task is to find a prime minister with whom he can work but who above all can find enough support in the National Assembly to escape swift ejection by a no-confidence motion.

Despite the lack of signs of progress in public, attention is crystallising on one possible “back to the future” option.

Former Socialist Party grandee Bernard Cazeneuve, 61, could return to the job of prime minister which he held for less than half a year under the presidency of Francois Hollande from 2016-2017.

He is better known for his much longer stint as interior minister under Hollande, which encompassed the radical Islamist attacks on Paris in November 2015.

But Cazeneuve receives far from whole-hearted support even on the left, where some in the Socialist Party (PS) regard him with suspicion for leaving when it first struck an alliance with hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) — a party which in turn sees the ex-PM as too centrist.

Another option could be the Socialist mayor of the Paris suburb of Saint-Ouen, Karim Bouamrane, 51, who has said he would consider taking the job if asked. Bouamrane is widely admired for seeking to tackle inequality and insecurity in the low-income district.

The stalemate has ground on first through the Olympics and now the Paralympics, with Macron showing he is in no rush to resolve the situation.

“We are in the most serious political crisis in the history of the Fifth Republic,” Jerome Jaffre, a political scientist at the Sciences Po university, told AFP.

France has been “without a majority, without a government for forty days,” he said, marking the longest period of so-called caretaker rule since the end of World War II.

‘Rubik’s cube’

Macron’s move to block Castets even seeking to lead a government provoked immediate outrage from the left, with Green Party chief Marine Tondelier accusing the president of stealing the election outcome.

National coordinator for the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI), Manuel Bompard, said the decision was an “unacceptable anti-democratic coup”, and LFI leader Jean-Luc Melanchon called for Macron’s impeachment.

READ MORE: Can a French president be impeached?

Some leftist leaders are urging for popular demonstrations on September 7, although this move has alarmed some Socialists and led to strains within the NFP.

France is in a “void with no precedents or clear rules about what should happen next,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group consultancy.

The president was “confronted with a parliamentary Rubik’s cube without an obvious solution,” said Rahman.

October 1 is the legal deadline by which a government must present a draft budget law for 2025.

The president has a constitutional duty to “ensure” the government functions, said public law professor Dominique Rousseau.

“He’s not going to appoint a government that we know will be overthrown within 48 hours,” he added.

For constitutional scholar Dominique Chagnollaud, Macron has backed himself into a corner, creating “unprecedented constitutional confusion”.

The logical choice is to appoint a leader from the group that “came out on top,” said Chagnollaud. “In most democracies, that’s how it works. If that doesn’t work, we try a second solution, and so on.”

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