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ELECTIONS

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

With the far-right in the lead after the first round of the snap French elections the big question now is whether they can win a majority in parliament - which gives them the right to nominate the prime minister.

Published: 30 June 2024 22:38 CEST
Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?
French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party leader Marine Le Pen followed by party President Jordan Bardella. Photo by JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP

The final results for round one of voting, released early on Monday morning, showed the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party well in the lead with 33.4 percent of the votes.

They were followed by the alliance of leftist parties, called the Nouveau Front Populaire on 28 percent, Macron’s centrist group Ensemble on 20.8 percent, and the right-wing Les Republicains party on 10.2 percent.

Follow the latest on the results HERE.

We now move on to round two – which will give the final results in each of France’s 577 constituencies.

The big question is whether any party or group can reach the magic number of 289 seats, which would give them a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament).

A party or group that gets 289 seats not only gets to exercise control over votes on legislation, but can also nominate a member of the party to be prime minister.

If a party other than the president’s party has a majority then the prime minister and the president are forced to work together in an easy alliance known as a cohabitiation.

So will the far-right RN win enough seats to get a majority?

First things first – this is all guesswork, we won’t know for certain whether Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party will have enough seats for a majority until the results of the second round are in on the evening of Sunday, July 7th.

However the pollsters have been working their magic trying to predict the total seat share from the first round vote and it seems they RN are set to win a huge number of seats. 

Various different polling agencies have different and very wide estimates, but all are saying that the final result for the RN could be close to that key number of 289.

A projection for the Elabe institute for BFMTV, RMC and La Tribune Dimanche put RN and its allies on between 255 and 295 seats.

Early projections from Ipsos suggest that RN and its allies could win between 230 and 280 seats in parliament.

It’s worth noting that given the unpredictability around the second round of voting (see below) France’s official polling watchdog does not endorse the seat projections by the polling companies.

Polls in the run up to the first round suggested the RN would not gain an absolute majority in parliament but wouldn’t be far off.

Second round votes

A big factor in the second round will be the ‘triangulaires’ or areas where the second round has three candidates.

In areas where this happens, it’s possible that some parties will agree to withdraw candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote – negotiations are ongoing in this area but it’s most likely to happen with leftist or centrist candidates.

The intention is to present a common front against the far-right – so if this happens in a significant number of areas it could affect the far-right’s overall seat numbers.

Follow the latest on those negotiations HERE.

Prime minister

If the far-right does gain an overall majority it has the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister and that person will be 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.

He has already said that he will only accept the PM role if his party wins an overall majority.

Although Macron will remain the president, having a parliamentary majority and a prime minister means the far-right will be in a much stronger position to implement some of their flagship policies including a drastic reduction in immigration and the imposing of ‘French preference’ to give precedence to French citizens in employment and housing.

READ ALSO What would a far-right prime minister mean for foreigners in France?

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ELECTION

Explained: What was France’s Fourth Republic and why it’s in the news again

With projections for a deadlocked parliament after the second round of voting and widespread predictions of political chaos, many French commentators are starting to make comparisons with France's Fourth Republic - for those of us who didn't grow up in France, here's what that means.

Published: 2 July 2024 12:06 CEST
Explained: What was France's Fourth Republic and why it's in the news again

Le spectre de la IVe République plane-t-il sur Macron ? – Is the spectre of the Fourth Republic hanging over Macron?

If you’re following French press coverage of the chaotic political situation in France right now, you might be coming across more and more sentences like this.

But while the Fourth Republic is a standard part of the French history syllabus, it doesn’t make it into many lesson plans outside France.

Here’s a look at what the Fourth Republic was, and why it might be relevant to the modern political crisis.

When 

The 4th republic ran from 1946 to 1958. French history is divided into the ancien regième (pre French Revolution) and the post-Revolution period which is divided into a series of republics, interspersed with a few non-republic periods such as when Napoleon got carried away and declared himself emperor.

You can find a fuller history here, but in brief the republics go; 

  • 1792-1804 – first republic. Runs from the abolition of the monarchy during the French Revolution until Napoleon declared himself emperor
  • 1848-1852 – second republic. Ended when Napoleon’s nephew Louis Napoleon (Napoleon III) overthrew the government and declared a second French empire with himself at the head
  • 1870-1940 – third republic. Ended with the Nazi invasion of France in 1940 when the republic was suspended and the period of the occupation and Vichy government began.
  • 1946-1958 – fourth republic. This one ended with a threatened military coup over Algerian independence, a panicked government brought WWII resistance leader Charles de Gaulle back into government and passed a new constitution.
  • 1958-present day – fifth republic. 

Each republic has its own constitution with significant differences in aspects such as how the political system works and the powers of the president versus the government.

What was going on?

The Fourth Republic covered a turbulent period in French politics – in 1946 the country was emerging from one of the most traumatic periods in its history; the Nazi occupation of World War II.

Nearly bankrupt, the country was also dealing with the national shame of the occupation and the collapse of the democratic government in 1940 (replaced by the un-elected collaborationist Vichy regime). 

The Fourth Republic ended in turmoil (as have all French republics so far, in fact) during the exceptionally brutal war of independence in Algeria.

Sensing that the government in Paris was paving the way for Algeria to be given independence from France, French soldiers in Algeria launched a military coup in opposition to this – the military also seized power in Corsica.

The national government panicked, fearing that insurrection could spread to France itself and other colonies.

Charles de Gaulle – who made his name as a figurehead of the French resistance during WWII and as the country’s first post-war leader – was called out of retirement to unite the country, restore order and avoid what some feared would become a civil war.

But what about the politics?

The Fourth Republic wasn’t just a turbulent period in history – it was also an extremely unstable period for governments.

Over its 12-year duration, there were a total of 24 governments. 

Governments rose and fell with dizzying regularity – a man named Pierre Pflimlin was prime minister for a grand total of 18 days in 1958, and he wasn’t even the shortest-serving PM of the fourth republic.

Parliament was also frequently deadlocked, coalitions and alliances were made and broken rapidly and prime ministers came and went as through a revolving door – the shortest serving PM was Robert Schuman who served just nine days, but that was his second shot at the job.

Henri Queuille was prime minister three times, in 1948, 1950 and 1951 and his first period in the job was the longest premiership of the Fourth Republic, lasting a whopping one year and 47 days.

It was a reaction to this political chaos that strongly influenced the constitution of the Fifth Republic – set up with Charles de Gaulle at the head in 1958.

De Gaulle insisted that the president was given widespread powers, at the expense of parliament, in order to curb what he saw at the excess of parliamentary powers that contributed to the turmoil of the Fourth Republic.

It’s why the French president to this day has constitutional powers to over-rule parliament, for example through the tool known as Article 49.3 which allows a president to force through legislation even if parliament opposes it.

The Fifth Republic also set up the president as the dominant political power in France – previously that had been the prime minister, with the president having more of a ceremonial role.

Its sheer instability means that these days the Fourth Republic is little lamented – those who call for a complete change of the system of government and the creation of a Sixth Republic tend to skip over the fourth altogether and use as a model the Third Republic.

But this is ancient history, why are we talking about it now?

The Fourth Republic is back in the news because it looks like France may be facing a new period of chaos in parliament.

The snap parliamentary elections called by president Emmanuel Macron were intended to restore a sense of consensus, but look like they are backfiring and instead creating a more turbulent situation.

Current polls suggest that the far-right Rassemblement National will be the biggest party, but it’s not certain whether they will win enough seats in parliament to gain an absolute majority.

If the party wins a majority the most likely outcome is that Macron will be forced to appoint far-right leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister and rule jointly with him in a very uneasy cohabitation.

If the far-right become the biggest party but don’t get a majority the most likely result is chaos – with attempts to build fragile alliances or coalitions between parties.

The “spectre of the Fourth Republic” is therefore the spectre of chaos and deadlock in parliament and maybe even a PM who will break Robert Schuman’s unenviable record of just nine days in office.

OPINION: The best that France can hope for now is 12 months of chaos

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