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ELECTIONS

When can we expect French election results on Sunday?

British and American readers might be expecting to stay up all night watching the results come in - but France has a different process for its elections.

When can we expect French election results on Sunday?
Voting begins in France on Sunday. Photo by PASCAL POCHARD-CASABIANCA / AFP

France is currently holding snap parliamentary elections, with two rounds of voting – on Sunday, June 30th and Sunday, July 7th. 

So when can we expect the results and what do they all mean?

Results time

If you’re used to following elections in the UK or the US, you might be planning an all-night watch party following the results being declared for each area.

France is not like that – on Sunday polls close at 8pm and then immediately a preliminary result is announced.

These are sometimes described as exit polls, but they’re not – what they are is sample results from carefully selected constituencies, worked out according to a complicated formula.

How does France produce such accurate provisional election results?

But the important thing about them is that they are usually very accurate – so basically we will know the result at 8pm on Sunday.

Counting, however, continues all night at polling stations across the country – but the results are not released on an area-by-area basis. Instead the Interior Ministry tallies all the results and then releases the full and final totals some time on Monday, usually in the morning.

These usually differ by a few percent from the provisional totals, but the final result has never (so far) been different to the result given at 8pm.

Results of two rounds

Because French elections take place over two rounds, the results mean slightly different things.

The results this Sunday tell us only which candidates have progressed to round two of voting (to be held on July 7th).

It will also tell us which parties have been eliminated at the round one stage in each constituency.

READ ALSO How does France’s two-round voting system work?

In most constituencies round two is a two-horse race but it’s possible to have three or even four candidates get through to the second round, depending on the vote share.

In this election, it is expected that in a significant number of seats the run-off will be between a candidate from the far-right Rassemblement National and the alliance of leftist parties known as Nouveau Front Populaire. This is somewhat uncharted waters for French politics, so expect much fevered speculation on what it means and which way voters will lean in round two.

The results from round two – which follow the same pattern of provisional results at 8pm on Sunday followed by full results on Monday – are much simpler.

They tell us which candidate won in each of France’s 577 constituencies and which party they represent.

We then do some speedy maths to work out if any of the parties have reached the magic number of 289 seats, which would give them an absolute majority in parliament.

If no party gets 289 seats, then fun and games begin with attempts to build coalitions and alliances between the parties.

READ ALSO Coalition, resignation or shared rule: The possible outcomes of France’s snap elections

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ELECTIONS

French elections: Deadline for candidates to drop out in order to block far-right

Candidates in France face a Tuesday deadline to register for the run-off round of a high-stakes parliamentary election, as President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp and the left-wing alliance scrambled to prevent the far right from taking power.

French elections: Deadline for candidates to drop out in order to block far-right

On Sunday, French people go to polls for the decisive final round of the snap election Macron called after his camp received a drubbing in European elections last month.

His gamble appears to have backfired, with the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen scoring a victory in the first round of voting last Sunday.

Macron’s centrists trailed in third place behind the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance.

Listen to the team from The Local discussing all the election latest on the Talking France podcast. Download here or listen on the link below

Faced with the prospect of the far right taking power in France for the first time since the country’s occupation by Nazi Germany during World War II, Macron’s camp has begun cooperating with the NFP.

The rivals are hoping that tactical voting will prevent the RN winning the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority – especially in the ‘triangulaires or three-way second round contests.

Candidates have the right to withdraw between the rounds and in constituencies that face a three-way run-off between candidates are the far-right, the centre and the left the third-placed candidate is being urged to drop out in order to avod splitting the anti far-right vote.

The deadline to decide whether to stand down is 6pm on Tuesday. According to a provisional count by AFP, at least 200 left-wing or centrist candidates have already dropped out.

Although NPF leaders immediately said that they would withdraw candidates, the Macron camp said only that withdrawals would be made on a ‘case by case’ basis.

Speaking to broadcaster TF1 on Monday evening, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal once again urged voters not to give the far-right an absolute majority.

“That would be catastrophic for the French,” he said, adding that the far-right would fuel divisions in society.

Third-place candidates who qualified for the second round have been urged to drop out to present a united front against the far right.

Meanwhile an RN candidate has withdrawn from the race after photos surfaced of her wearing a Nazi cap. Ludivine Daoudi on Sunday came third in her district in the northwestern area of Calvados, but a photo of her allegedly wearing a cap from the Luftwaffe air force of Nazi Germany sparked controversy online.

“Only a strong republican front, uniting the left, centre and conservatives, can keep the far right at bay and prevent France from tipping over,” daily Le Monde said in an editorial.

Le Pen has urged voters to give the RN an absolute majority, which would see Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN chief with no governing experience, become prime minister.

READ ALSO Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

But most projections show the RN falling short of an absolute majority – although the final outcome remains far from certain.

The RN garnered 33 percent of the vote last Sunday, compared to 28 percent for the NFP alliance and just over 20 percent for Macron’s camp.

Speaking on television on Monday night, Bardella derided efforts by Macron’s camp and the left-wing coalition to put up a united front, suggesting that the “dishonourable” alliance had been formed out of desperation.

He accused the French president of coming “to the rescue of a violent extreme-left movement” he himself had denounced just days ago.

Macron convened a cabinet meeting Monday to decide a further course of action.

“Let’s not be mistaken. It’s the far right that’s on its way to the highest office, no one else,” he said at the meeting, according to one participant.

The emotion was palpable, with several ministers dropping out of the race.

“We’ve known happier meetings,” one minister told Le Monde.

France’s Euro 2024 star Jules Kounde was the latest football player to call on voters to block the far-right.

“Obviously I was disappointed to see the direction our country is taking with a big level of support for a party that is against our values of unity and respect, and that wants to divide the French people,” said Kounde, the 25-year-old Barcelona defender.

“Nothing is decided yet, and I think it will be important to block the far right and the RN,” he added, after France beat Belgium 1-0 in Duesseldorf to reach the Euro 2024 quarter-finals.

OPINION: The best France can hope for now is 12 months of chaos

Analysts say the most likely outcome of the snap election is a hung parliament that could lead to months of political paralysis and chaos.

With a total of 76 candidates elected outright in the first round, the final composition of the 577-seat National Assembly will be clear only after the second round.

If the RN takes an absolute majority and Bardella becomes prime minister, this would create a tense period of “cohabitation” with Macron, who has vowed to serve out his term until 2027.

The election results fuelled fresh criticism of Macron’s decision to call the vote in the first place, a move he took with only a tight circle of advisors.

The chaos risks damaging the international credibility of Macron, who is set to attend a NATO summit in Washington immediately after the vote.

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