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ELECTIONS

French far-right win in first round of pivotal French elections

The final results of the first round of France's crucial snap elections showed Marine Le Pen's far-right party ahead with a strong lead, followed by the leftist alliance and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist group in third place.

Published: 30 June 2024 19:03 CEST
Updated: 1 July 2024 07:02 CEST
French far-right win in first round of pivotal French elections
President of the French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) group at the National Assembly Marine Le Pen (L) and RN President Jordan Bardella sing the national anthem in Marseille on March 3, 2024, prior to the European elections. (Photo by CHRISTOPHE SIMON / AFP)

The final results, released early on Monday morning, showed the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party well in the lead with 33.4 percent of the votes.

They were followed by the alliance of leftist parties, called the Nouveau Front Populaire on 28 percent, Macron’s centrist group Ensemble on 20.8 percent, and the right-wing Les Republicains party on 10.2 percent.

Turnout was 66.7 percent, the highest for the first round of a legislative election since 1997.

READ MORE: Will the French far-right get a majority in parliament?

After the results were released, Macron called for a “broad democratic alliance” against the far-right.

“Faced with the Rassemblement National, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round,” he said in a statement.

He also said that the high turnout in the first round spoke of “the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation.”

What next after the first round of voting?

France’s longtime far-right leader Marine Le Pen said on Sunday voters needed to give her party an absolute majority in the second round of parliamentary elections so party chief Jordan Bardella can become premier.

“We need an absolute majority for Jordan Bardella to be appointed Prime Minister by Emmanuel Macron in eight days’ time.

Explained: Who are all the parties and alliances in France’s snap election?

“The French have unequivocally shown their desire to turn the page on seven years of contemptuous, corrosive power. However, nothing is certain and the second round will be decisive,” she said.

The far-right’s Jordan Bardella said: “The French people have handed down a clear verdict.”

Bardella said he wanted to be the prime minister “of all French” who is respectful of the constitution in a “cohabitation” with President Emmanuel Macron, but “uncompromising”.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the Nouveau Front Populaire leftist alliance said on Sunday that President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance had suffered a “heavy and indisputable” defeat in snap polls and urged French people to vote against the far-right.

Crucial second round of voting lies ahead.

The second round of voting takes place next Sunday – July 7th.

The two highest scorers from round one go through, plus anyone else who got more than 12.5 percent of the total votes cast.

The high turnout has resulted in an unusually high number of three-way contests in the second round – in total there are 190 two-person second rounds, 306 three-person contests and five four-way splits.

A handful of candidates also won outright in the first round including Marine Le Pen and Parti Socialiste leader Olivier Faure. In Paris deputy mayor Emmanuel Gregoire won in the first round, knocking out former Macron minister Clément Beaune.

In a bid to keep out the far right Mélénchon’s leftist alliance said it would withdraw candidates who finished third in the first round.

“Our instructions are clear: not one more vote, not one more seat for the RN”, said Mélenchon.

READ ALSO: French elections: What happens next as far-right lead in round one?

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ELECTIONS

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

With the far-right in the lead after the first round of the snap French elections the big question now is whether they can win a majority in parliament - which gives them the right to nominate the prime minister.

Published: 30 June 2024 22:38 CEST
Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

The final results for round one of voting, released early on Monday morning, showed the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party well in the lead with 33.4 percent of the votes.

They were followed by the alliance of leftist parties, called the Nouveau Front Populaire on 28 percent, Macron’s centrist group Ensemble on 20.8 percent, and the right-wing Les Republicains party on 10.2 percent.

Follow the latest on the results HERE.

We now move on to round two – which will give the final results in each of France’s 577 constituencies.

The big question is whether any party or group can reach the magic number of 289 seats, which would give them a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament).

A party or group that gets 289 seats not only gets to exercise control over votes on legislation, but can also nominate a member of the party to be prime minister.

If a party other than the president’s party has a majority then the prime minister and the president are forced to work together in an easy alliance known as a cohabitiation.

So will the far-right RN win enough seats to get a majority?

First things first – this is all guesswork, we won’t know for certain whether Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party will have enough seats for a majority until the results of the second round are in on the evening of Sunday, July 7th.

However the pollsters have been working their magic trying to predict the total seat share from the first round vote and it seems they RN are set to win a huge number of seats. 

Various different polling agencies have different and very wide estimates, but all are saying that the final result for the RN could be close to that key number of 289.

A projection for the Elabe institute for BFMTV, RMC and La Tribune Dimanche put RN and its allies on between 255 and 295 seats.

Early projections from Ipsos suggest that RN and its allies could win between 230 and 280 seats in parliament.

It’s worth noting that given the unpredictability around the second round of voting (see below) France’s official polling watchdog does not endorse the seat projections by the polling companies.

Polls in the run up to the first round suggested the RN would not gain an absolute majority in parliament but wouldn’t be far off.

Second round votes

A big factor in the second round will be the ‘triangulaires’ or areas where the second round has three candidates.

In areas where this happens, it’s possible that some parties will agree to withdraw candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote – negotiations are ongoing in this area but it’s most likely to happen with leftist or centrist candidates.

The intention is to present a common front against the far-right – so if this happens in a significant number of areas it could affect the far-right’s overall seat numbers.

Follow the latest on those negotiations HERE.

Prime minister

If the far-right does gain an overall majority it has the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister and that person will be 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.

He has already said that he will only accept the PM role if his party wins an overall majority.

Although Macron will remain the president, having a parliamentary majority and a prime minister means the far-right will be in a much stronger position to implement some of their flagship policies including a drastic reduction in immigration and the imposing of ‘French preference’ to give precedence to French citizens in employment and housing.

READ ALSO What would a far-right prime minister mean for foreigners in France?

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