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POLITICS

French elections: What happens next as far-right lead in round one?

The results for the first round of France's snap elections show the far-right with a strong lead. But we're only half way there with the second round of voting to come. Here's what happens next.

French elections: What happens next as far-right lead in round one?
French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte going to vote on Sunday. Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP

The final results for round one of voting, released early on Monday morning, showed the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party well in the lead with 33.4 percent of the votes.

They were followed by the alliance of leftist parties, called the Nouveau Front Populaire on 28 percent, Macron’s centrist group Ensemble on 20.8 percent, and the right-wing Les Republicains party on 10.2 percent.

Follow the latest on the results HERE.

Two-rounds of voting

In this election the first and second rounds are just one week apart – voters will return on Sunday, July 7th and make their choice between the second-round candidates. Votes are not carried forward between the rounds, meaning that July 7th is a blank slate.

Not all candidates get to stand in the second round of the vote and some groups may withdraw their candidates meaning the second round could be very different.

The two highest scorers from round one go through, along with any other candidate who gets more than 12.5 percent of the total votes cast.

Usually round two is a two-horse race, but the high turnout at these elections mean that more three or even four-way contests are likely in round two.

READ ALSO How does France’s two round voting system work?

First round results 

Therefore the results of round one tell us only who will be the candidates for each area in round two – not who has or will win.

That’s still pretty significant though, and naturally round one results give an indication of how people are likely to vote in round two.

Deals

The next few hours and days are likely to be taken up with deals.

Typically in French elections, the defeated parties will urge their supporters to vote for one side or the other in the second round.

That’s usually even more the case when a far-right candidate is still involved – parties will call on voters to Faire un barrage (make a roadblock) against the far right, or invoke Le Front républicain, the term for when parties unite across the political divide to combat the far-right.

READ MORE: French elections: Will parties withdraw candidates to block the far right?

After the results were released, Macron called for a “broad” democratic alliance against the far-right.

“Faced with Rassemblement National, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round,” he said in a statement.

In a three-way contest, parties also have the option of withdrawing their third-placed candidate in order to avoid splitting the vote – for example in a three-way contest between a centrist, a leftist and a far-right candidate the centrist and leftists may decide between them to withdraw one candidate in order not to split the anti-far right vote.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon and other Nouveau Front Populaire leaders announced that the group would withdraw its candidates in any constituency where they finished third place after round one.

“Our instructions are clear: not one more vote, not one more seat for the RN”, said Mélenchon.

Fellow NFP leader Rahaël Glucksmann said: “We have seven days to avoid a catastrophe for France.”

Voters who find the second-round choices unpalatable have the option of abstaining (which is why turnout will be carefully monitored) or casting a ‘vote blanc – a blank ballot paper – to express their opposition.

Next Sunday

The second round of voting takes place on Sunday, July 7th and – like round one – provisional results will be released at 8pm.

READ MORE: Explained: The big names and main parties in France’s snap elections

A party needs a minimum of 289 seats to get an overall majority in parliament – any party that gets this number will be able to put forward their candidate for prime minister. If it is either RN or NPF, that prime minister will then enter a cohabitation with President Macron – who remains president whatever the results are.

If no group or party gets 289 seats, then we’re in for messy and protracted negotiations.

The most likely scenarios are either a coalition or some kind of ‘government of national unity’, perhaps headed by a figure from outside politics.

Truthfully, however, no-one really knows since this has never happened since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958. We’re entering uncharted waters . . .

READ MORE: Will the French far-right get a majority in parliament?

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ELECTION

Explained: What was France’s Fourth Republic and why it’s in the news again

With projections for a deadlocked parliament after the second round of voting and widespread predictions of political chaos, many French commentators are starting to make comparisons with France's Fourth Republic - for those of us who didn't grow up in France, here's what that means.

Explained: What was France's Fourth Republic and why it's in the news again

Le spectre de la IVe République plane-t-il sur Macron ? – Is the spectre of the Fourth Republic hanging over Macron?

If you’re following French press coverage of the chaotic political situation in France right now, you might be coming across more and more sentences like this.

But while the Fourth Republic is a standard part of the French history syllabus, it doesn’t make it into many lesson plans outside France.

Here’s a look at what the Fourth Republic was, and why it might be relevant to the modern political crisis.

When 

The 4th republic ran from 1946 to 1958. French history is divided into the ancien regième (pre French Revolution) and the post-Revolution period which is divided into a series of republics, interspersed with a few non-republic periods such as when Napoleon got carried away and declared himself emperor.

You can find a fuller history here, but in brief the republics go; 

  • 1792-1804 – first republic. Runs from the abolition of the monarchy during the French Revolution until Napoleon declared himself emperor
  • 1848-1852 – second republic. Ended when Napoleon’s nephew Louis Napoleon (Napoleon III) overthrew the government and declared a second French empire with himself at the head
  • 1870-1940 – third republic. Ended with the Nazi invasion of France in 1940 when the republic was suspended and the period of the occupation and Vichy government began.
  • 1946-1958 – fourth republic. This one ended with a threatened military coup over Algerian independence, a panicked government brought WWII resistance leader Charles de Gaulle back into government and passed a new constitution.
  • 1958-present day – fifth republic. 

Each republic has its own constitution with significant differences in aspects such as how the political system works and the powers of the president versus the government.

What was going on?

The Fourth Republic covered a turbulent period in French politics – in 1946 the country was emerging from one of the most traumatic periods in its history; the Nazi occupation of World War II.

Nearly bankrupt, the country was also dealing with the national shame of the occupation and the collapse of the democratic government in 1940 (replaced by the un-elected collaborationist Vichy regime). 

The Fourth Republic ended in turmoil (as have all French republics so far, in fact) during the exceptionally brutal war of independence in Algeria.

Sensing that the government in Paris was paving the way for Algeria to be given independence from France, French soldiers in Algeria launched a military coup in opposition to this – the military also seized power in Corsica.

The national government panicked, fearing that insurrection could spread to France itself and other colonies.

Charles de Gaulle – who made his name as a figurehead of the French resistance during WWII and as the country’s first post-war leader – was called out of retirement to unite the country, restore order and avoid what some feared would become a civil war.

But what about the politics?

The Fourth Republic wasn’t just a turbulent period in history – it was also an extremely unstable period for governments.

Over its 12-year duration, there were a total of 24 governments. 

Governments rose and fell with dizzying regularity – a man named Pierre Pflimlin was prime minister for a grand total of 18 days in 1958, and he wasn’t even the shortest-serving PM of the fourth republic.

Parliament was also frequently deadlocked, coalitions and alliances were made and broken rapidly and prime ministers came and went as through a revolving door – the shortest serving PM was Robert Schuman who served just nine days, but that was his second shot at the job.

Henri Queuille was prime minister three times, in 1948, 1950 and 1951 and his first period in the job was the longest premiership of the Fourth Republic, lasting a whopping one year and 47 days.

It was a reaction to this political chaos that strongly influenced the constitution of the Fifth Republic – set up with Charles de Gaulle at the head in 1958.

De Gaulle insisted that the president was given widespread powers, at the expense of parliament, in order to curb what he saw at the excess of parliamentary powers that contributed to the turmoil of the Fourth Republic.

It’s why the French president to this day has constitutional powers to over-rule parliament, for example through the tool known as Article 49.3 which allows a president to force through legislation even if parliament opposes it.

The Fifth Republic also set up the president as the dominant political power in France – previously that had been the prime minister, with the president having more of a ceremonial role.

Its sheer instability means that these days the Fourth Republic is little lamented – those who call for a complete change of the system of government and the creation of a Sixth Republic tend to skip over the fourth altogether and use as a model the Third Republic.

But this is ancient history, why are we talking about it now?

The Fourth Republic is back in the news because it looks like France may be facing a new period of chaos in parliament.

The snap parliamentary elections called by president Emmanuel Macron were intended to restore a sense of consensus, but look like they are backfiring and instead creating a more turbulent situation.

Current polls suggest that the far-right Rassemblement National will be the biggest party, but it’s not certain whether they will win enough seats in parliament to gain an absolute majority.

If the party wins a majority the most likely outcome is that Macron will be forced to appoint far-right leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister and rule jointly with him in a very uneasy cohabitation.

If the far-right become the biggest party but don’t get a majority the most likely result is chaos – with attempts to build fragile alliances or coalitions between parties.

The “spectre of the Fourth Republic” is therefore the spectre of chaos and deadlock in parliament and maybe even a PM who will break Robert Schuman’s unenviable record of just nine days in office.

OPINION: The best that France can hope for now is 12 months of chaos

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