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FRENCH ELECTIONS

Ex-president Hollande surprise candidate in French election

Former French Socialist president Francois Hollande on Saturday said he is to stand again for parliament in legislative elections -- a political comeback that took even his allies on the left by surprise.

Former French President Francois Hollande waves as he arrives to attend the annual dinner of the Representative Council of Jewish Institutions of France at the Louvre Carrousel in Paris
Former French President Francois Hollande waves as he arrives to attend the annual dinner of the Representative Council of Jewish Institutions of France at the Louvre Carrousel in Paris on May 6, 2024. Hollande has said he would stand again for parliament in the upcoming elections. (Photo by JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP)

Hollande, France’s president from 2012-2017, left office with record levels of unpopularity and is detested by some within the radical left while even the Socialist leadership regard him with suspicion.

But he has had a relatively high media profile in the weeks leading up to President Emmanuel Macron’s dramatic calling of snap elections to combat the rise of the far right.

Hollande said he will stand as an MP for the southwestern Correze department for the New Popular Front, a left-wing union for the elections including Socialists, hard-left, Greens and Communists.

“An exceptional decision for an exceptional situation,” Hollande told reporters in the department’s main town of Tulle, describing his comeback.

Hollande has already backed the new broad left-wing union saying that we “must all do everything to make sure the far right does not come to power in France”.

Hollande is not the first president to run for legislative elections after leaving the Elysee Palace. In 1984, three years after his defeat against Francois Mitterrand in presidential elections, Valery Giscard d’Estaing was elected MP for the Puy-de-Dome department.

Officially, the Socialist Party reacted cooly to the move with the head of its election commission Pierre Jouvet simply saying that it “takes note” of the candidacy.

But one senior party figure, asking not to be named, said they were “devastated” by the news while admitting: “We said we wanted the broadest possible left wing.”

The elections, with a first round on June 30 and second on July 7, were called by Macron after the far right trounced his own centrist ruling party in this month’s European elections.

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ELECTIONS

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

With the far-right in the lead after the first round of the snap French elections the big question now is whether they can win a majority in parliament - which gives them the right to nominate the prime minister.

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

Preliminary results for round one of voting on June 30th show the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party in the lead with 34.5 percent of the vote, followed by the left alliance Nouveau Front Populaire on 28.1 percent and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group on 20.8 percent.

Follow the latest on the results HERE.

We now move on to round two – which will give the final results in each of France’s 577 constituencies.

The big question is whether any party or group can reach the magic number of 289 seats, which would give them a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament).

A party or group that gets 289 seats not only gets to exercise control over votes on legislation, but can also nominate a member of the party to be prime minister.

If a party other than the president’s party has a majority then the prime minister and the president are forced to work together in an easy alliance known as a cohabitiation.

So will the far-right RN win enough seats to get a majority?

First things first – this is all guesswork, we won’t know for certain whether Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party will have enough seats for a majority until the results of the second round are in on the evening of Sunday, July 7th.

However the pollsters have been working their magic trying to predict the total seat share from the first round vote and it seems they RN are set to win a huge number of seats. 

Various different polling agencies have different and very wide estimates, but all are saying that the final result for the RN could be close to that key number of 289.

A projection for the Elabe institute for BFMTV, RMC and La Tribune Dimanche put RN and its allies on between 255 and 295 seats.

Early projections from Ipsos suggest that RN and its allies could win between 230 and 280 seats in parliament.

It’s worth noting that given the unpredictability around the second round of voting (see below) France’s official polling watchdog does not endorse the seat projections by the polling companies.

Polls in the run up to the first round suggested the RN would not gain an absolute majority in parliament but wouldn’t be far off.

Second round votes

A big factor in the second round will be the ‘triangulaires’ or areas where the second round has three candidates.

In areas where this happens, it’s possible that some parties will agree to withdraw candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote – negotiations are ongoing in this area but it’s most likely to happen with leftist or centrist candidates.

The intention is to present a common front against the far-right – so if this happens in a significant number of areas it could affect the far-right’s overall seat numbers.

Follow the latest on those negotiations HERE.

Prime minister

If the far-right does gain an overall majority it has the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister and that person will be 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.

He has already said that he will only accept the PM role if his party wins an overall majority.

Although Macron will remain the president, having a parliamentary majority and a prime minister means the far-right will be in a much stronger position to implement some of their flagship policies including a drastic reduction in immigration and the imposing of ‘French preference’ to give precedence to French citizens in employment and housing.

READ ALSO What would a far-right prime minister mean for foreigners in France?

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