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ELECTIONS

French election breakdown: Party alliances and the Ciotti soap opera

Five days into campaigning for the snap parliamentary elections in France, here's our latest election breakdown bringing you up to date with the latest - from the party alliances and deals to the high farce at the party HQ of Les Républicains.

French election breakdown: Party alliances and the Ciotti soap opera
Members of the media wait for the leader of Les Republicains to leave the party headquarters in Paris. Photo by STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN / AFP

During the election period we will be publishing a bi-weekly ‘election breakdown’ to help you keep up with all the latest developments. You can receive these as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to ‘breaking news alerts’.

It’s now five days since French president Emmanuel Macron’s surprise election announcement and right now, it’s all about alliances – namely which parties will succeed in making electoral pacts. And attempts to form these alliances have produced the funniest and most dramatic moments so far.

The end of Eric?

First up was Eric Ciotti, leader of the right-wing Les Républiains party, who announced an alliance with Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National. However, party bigwigs (this is the former party of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy) were horrified by his deal and immediately attempted to expel him.

Farce ensued with Ciotti locking the doors of the party Paris HQ, party bosses holding a meeting to expel him anyway, Ciotti refusing to accept their verdict and announcing a legal challenge, then posting a video of himself arriving at the office the following morning insisting that he was still in charge.

Cue a veritable tsunami of jokes and social media memes as most of France grabbed some popcorn and settled down to watch the drama. 

Family drama

Also having some internal issues is Reconquête, the party founded by right-wing polemicist Eric Zemmour in 2022 whose platform was, basically, that Le Pen was no longer far right enough.

They gained five MEPs at the European elections, but within 48 hours Zemmour had expelled four of them from the party after they attempted to form an alliance with RN. Among those he branded “traitors” was the party’s lead candidate Marion Maréchal, niece of Marine Le Pen who very publicly broke with her aunt in 2022 to join Zemmour.

Zemmour himself went on TV to talk through his feelings of betrayal. 

Popular for some 

Over on the left of the political spectrum things have been – most uncharacteristically – calmer and more cordial. The four biggest parties on the left (the hard-left La France Insoumise, the centre-left Parti Socialiste, the Greens EELV, and the Communist Party) have concluded an election pact not to stand candidates against each other.

The deal will see 229 LFI candidates, 170 PS candidates, 92 Greens and 50 Communists.

However the solidarity of the ‘Front populaire’ could soon splinter as they continue to discuss the hypothetical question of who they would nominate as prime minister, should they gain an absolute majority in parliament.

Three-way split

So it looks like the elections will be – as they were in 2022 – largely fought on a three-way split; the combined parties of the left; the far-right with a few allies and the centrist bloc made up of Macronists plus the two smaller centrist parties (MoDem and Horizons).

What next?

Candidates have until the end of Friday to submit their papers and the next big date is Saturday, when towns and cities all over France will hold demos protesting against the rise of the far-right – find the full list here.

While politicians across the spectrum continue to snipe at each other and jostle for position, many people across the country are simply appalled at the prospect of the far-right in power in France, and thousands of them are expected to take to the streets over the weekend to show their feelings.

READ ALSO What a far-right prime minister could mean for foreigners in France

Then, on Monday, the campaign proper begins – parties that not already done so will need to produce a manifesto and the conversation will likely move away from the amusing soap opera of alliance-building and onto policy platforms and candidates.

We will be publishing this election breakdown twice a week during the election period. You can receive these as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to ‘breaking news alerts’.

Member comments

  1. Yes, thank you Emma for these excellent explanations (which are refreshingly devoid of political-analysis claptrap!), But one question: in your sentence under “Three-Way Split” I’m not sure where it will be that Les Republicains, diminished and quarrelling as they are, will fall in. Allies of the far right or the centrist bloc? Haha, maybe I am not sure because that is an open question.

    1. Yes good point – I think the biggest problem is that Les Républicains themselves aren’t sure where they will fall in! I guess we’ll find out next week . . .

  2. I add my thanks. I appreciate that the articles are tailored to meet the information needs of thelocal community.
    Maybe it is time to add an option to donate in addition to subscribing.

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ELECTIONS

Will Macron resign in case of a French election disaster?

The polling is not looking good for president Emmanuel Macron's party in the snap elections that he called just two weeks ago. So will he resign if it all goes wrong?

Will Macron resign in case of a French election disaster?

On Sunday, June 9th, the French president stunned Europe when he called snap parliamentary elections in France, in the wake of humiliating results for his centrist group in the European elections.

The French president has the power to dissolve parliament and call fresh elections – but this power is rarely used and in recent decades French parliaments have run on fixed terms. Very few people predicted Macron’s move.

But polling for the fresh elections (held over two rounds on June 30th and July 7th) is looking very bad for the president’s centrist Renaissance party – currently trailing third behind Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National and the combined leftist group Nouveau Front Populaire.

Listen to the team from The Local discussing all the election latest in the new episode of the Talking France podcast. Download here or listen on the link below

The election was a gamble for Macron – but if his gamble fails will he resign?

What does the law and the constitution say?

Legally, Macron does not need to resign. In France the presidential and the parliamentary elections are separate – Macron himself was re-elected in 2022 with a five-year mandate (until May 2027).

His party failing to gain a parliamentary majority does not change that – in fact the centrists failed to gain a overall majority in the 2022 parliamentary elections too (although they remained the largest party). Since then, the government has limped on, managing to pass some legislation by using constitutional powers.

The constitution also offers no compulsion or even a suggestion that the president should resign if he fails to form a government.

In fact the current constitution (France has had five) gives a significant amount of power to the president at the expense of parliament – the president has the power to dissolve parliament (as Macron has demonstrated), to set policy on areas including defence and diplomacy and to bypass parliament entirely and force through legislation (through the tool known as Article 49.3). 

In fact there are only three reasons in the constitution that a president would finish their term of office early; resigning, dying in office or being the subject of impeachment proceedings.

Since 1958, only one president has resigned – Charles de Gaulle quit in 1969 after the failure of a referendum that he had backed. He died 18 months later, at the age of 79.  

OK, but is he likely to resign?

He says not. In an open letter to the French people published over the weekend, Macron wrote: “You can trust me to act until May 2027 as your president, protector at every moment of our republic, our values, respectful of pluralism and your choices, at your service and that of the nation.”

He insisted that the coming vote was “neither a presidential election, nor a vote of confidence in the president of the republic” but a response to “a single question: who should govern France?”

So it looks likely that Macron will stay put.

And he wouldn’t be the first French president to continue in office despite his party having failed to win a parliamentary majority – presidents François Mitterand and Jacques Chirac both served part of their term in office in a ‘cohabitation‘ – the term for when the president is forced to appoint an opposition politician as prime minister.

But should he resign?

The choice to call the snap elections was Macron’s decision, it seems he took the decision after discussing it just a few close advisers and it surprised and/or infuriated even senior people in his own party.

If the poll leads to political chaos then, many will blame Macron personally and there will be many people calling for his resignation (although that’s hardly new – Macron démission has been a regular cry from political opponents over the last seven years as he enacted policies that they didn’t like).

Regardless of the morality of dealing with the fallout of your own errors, there is also the practicality – if current polling is to be believed, none of the parties are set to achieve an overall majority and the likely result with be an extremely protracted and messy stalemate with unstable governments, fragile coalitions and caretaker prime ministers. It might make sense to have some stability at the top, even if that figure is extremely personally unpopular.

He may leave the country immediately after the result of the second round, however. Washington is hosting a NATO summit on July 9th-11th and a French president would normally attend that as a representative of a key NATO member. 

You can follow all the latest election news HERE or sign up to receive by email our bi-weekly election breakdown

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