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ECONOMY

‘No longer black sheep’: Tourism boosts Spain and other ‘Club Med’ economies

Derided as "Club Med" nations during the European debt crisis 15 years ago, the economies of Spain, Greece and Portugal are now outperforming their northern peers thanks to a rebound in tourism.

'No longer black sheep': Tourism boosts Spain and other 'Club Med' economies
Tourists visit Binibeca, a small fishermen's village in the municipality of Sant Lluis on the Balearic island of Menorca, on May 30, 2024. (Photo by JAIME REINA / AFP)

The three nations had to endure harsh austerity measures in the early 2010s imposed by their European Union partners, who were quick to blame their fiscal laxity and lack of competitiveness for their economic woes.

But “the situation has changed” since the Covid-19 pandemic ended, said Zsolt Darvas, an economist at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank.

“Today, those countries are growing faster than the European Union average, they are no longer seen as black sheep.”

Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.5 percent last year, while Portugal’s economy grew by 2.3 percent and Greece by 2.0 percent.

That compares to growth of 0.4 percent for the entire 27-member European Union, which was weighed down by Germany’s 0.3 percent contraction, making it the world’s worst-performing major economy in 2023.

The International Monetary Fund expects the three nations to continue to outperform this year, although at a more modest pace.

It sees growth this year of 2.4 percent in Spain, 1.7 percent in Portugal and 2.0 percent in Greece.

Spain’s economy is taking off “like a rocket”, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said recently. The country is “the locomotive” of job creation in the EU, he added on Thursday.

READ ALSO: Spain’s economy grew an unexpected 2.5 percent in 2023

‘Great efforts’

Economists say this turnaround is largely due to a strong rebound in tourism, which reached record levels last year following the lifting of pandemic travel restrictions.

The sector is key for the three nations, accounting for almost 25 percent of Greece’s economy, and 12 percent in both Portugal and Spain.

READ ALSO: 84 million – Spain welcomed record number of tourists in 2023

The trio of nations are also benefiting from the EU’s massive pandemic recovery fund, whose mix of grants and loans in exchange for structural reforms will largely go to southern countries.

Spain – the biggest beneficiary of the fund after Italy – has so far received €38 billion, Greece €15 billion and Portugal €8 billion.

The three nations have also made “great efforts to improve their economic attractiveness” with structural reforms that have boosted their competitiveness and improved their labour markets, said Darvas.

The reforms have helped draw foreign investment, especially in renewable energy and cloud computing.

Amazon’s cloud computing division AWS announced last month it would invest over €15 billion to expand its data centres in Spain.

READ MORE: Amazon to create 17,500 new jobs in Spain

Many automakers such as Volkswagen and Stellantis, whose brands include Peugeot, Fiat and Jeep, have chosen to assemble their new electric vehicles in Spain, Europe’s second largest automobile producer after Germany.

Challenges remain

The growth spurt in the three countries, however, is partly catching up after the steep falls in GDP during the financial crisis. Greece’s GDP for example plunged 25 percent.

Economists warn they still face challenges.

While they have all seen joblessness fall, the unemployment rate in Greece and Spain sits above 11 percent, way above the EU average of 5.9 percent.

And former European economic and monetary affairs commissioner Olli Rehn told AFP that “deficits and debt levels remain large in some cases” even though “divergences between euro area countries have decreased compared to 10 years ago”.

Portugal swung to a budget surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP last year while Greece’s public deficit declined to 1.6 percent in 2023 from 2.5 percent in the previous year. The EU average is 3.5 percent.

This has helped its 10-year borrowing rate to drop to 3.5 percent from 13 percent during the financial crisis.

Darvas said the “convergence” of southern European nations with northern ones “is likely to continue” but at a “slower pace”. Spain, Portugal and Greece still have “work to do,” he added.

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POLITICS

The plan for Catalonia to handle its own finances separately from Spain

Catalan separatists are pushing for 'financiación singular' to gain greater fiscal autonomy from the Spanish state, but the proposals are tied up with politics at the national level.

The plan for Catalonia to handle its own finances separately from Spain

The recent regional elections in Catalonia in May were hailed by political pundits as the end of the procés and turning the page on the Catalan question. The evidence for this was that separatist parties lost their majority in the regional legislature for the first time in over a decade and that the Socialists (PSOE) won the most votes overall.

However, since then things have been far from simple. The PSOE candidate, Salvador Illa, is yet to secure an investiture vote and the political horse trading is ongoing with ramifications for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s fragile majority at the national level.

The controversial amnesty law pushed by Sánchez’s government then got clogged up in the courts, despite being approved in the Congress, and Catalan separatist parties managed to cling onto the role of speaker in the regional parliament. Catalan lawmakers elected Josep Rull, a member of the hardline separatist Junts per Catalunya, which is led by exiled former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont.

READ ALSO: Separatists retain speaker in new Catalan parliament

The important context to understand here is that the Sánchez government is dependent on separatist parties, including Junts and the more moderate Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC). After inconclusive general election results last summer, Sánchez essentially made a deal with the Catalans in exchange for their votes to maintain his position in La Moncloa.

Catalan finances and national politics

Now separatist parties, particularly ERC, are leveraging this support in order to gain concessions from the national government. The main way they’re doing this is through a demand for financiación singular — ‘singular financing’. That is to say, how Catalonia raises and uses taxes, and whether or not it should be allowed greater fiscal autonomy closer to something like the Basque model.

ERC secretary general Marta Rovira has said in the Spanish press that greater fiscal autonomy “is the minimum that can be demanded,” and alluded to the conditionality of their support for Sánchez: “The Socialists must know that if Pedro Sánchez is not able to move on the singular financing… it will be very difficult for ERC to support him. Salvador Illa must bear this in mind.”

la financiación ‘singular’

But what is singular financing? Former president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, described the plan as “full fiscal sovereignty” in the election campaign, and essentially what the ERC is proposing is a bespoke fiscal arrangement for Catalonia that allows the Generalitat to collect (and keep) more of its taxes.

This would be a step, albeit financial rather than constitutional, towards greater regional autonomy for Catalonia and likely viewed as a political victory for separatists.

For critics of Sánchez, it would be more evidence of his capitulation to Catalans.

Singular finance is an idea inspired by the so-called “Basque quota”. This is basically a fiscal arrangement that allows the Basque government control of most of its taxes but means it must also contribute a set ‘quota’ to the Spanish government.

READ ALSO: Spain’s contested Catalan amnesty bill comes into force

In Catalonia, the long-term aim would be something similar: for the Generalitat to collect all (or more than it currently does, at least) of the taxes paid in Catalonia and then transfer to the Spanish state an agreed portion of that.

In terms of cash, this would mean that the Generalitat would collect billions more in tax (some estimates put it as high as €52 billion overall) and more than double the €25.6 billion it received in 2021 under the current model.

Proponents of the singular finance model also suggest that giving the Generalitat greater fiscal autonomy would do something to redress the so-called ‘Catalan deficit’, the difference between what the Catalan economy contributes to the Spanish state coffers and what it receives in return investment. Generalitat estimates for 2021 put this figure at over €20 billion in 2021.

Therefore, the demand is not only political but economic. The ERC claims that changing the fiscal model would do something to resolve what it calls the “chronic underfunding” of the region.

Negotiations for a singular financing model, which will be tied up in the investiture negotiations for Illa, which are themselves tied up in the fragile arrangement at the national level, will likely continue for many weeks.

If no candidate has won an investiture vote in the regional parliament by August 25th, further elections will be called.

READ ALSO: Which Catalans want independence from Spain?

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