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What’s the weather going to be like in Sweden this summer?

Sweden is (usually) the perfect country to visit in summer – long, warm days that never really turn into night, but not as suffocatingly hot as southern Europe. Will that be the case this year?

Published: 31 May 2024 10:28 CEST
Updated: 6 June 2024 09:39 CEST

What's the weather going to be like in Sweden this summer?

Will this year be a repeat of 2023's rainy summer? Photo: Caisa Rasmussen/TT

According to public broadcaster SVT’s forecast for the summer, there are three possible scenarios for the Swedish weather.

Essentially, a low pressure front is expected to move in across the west of Scandinavia, roughly over the UK, while a high pressure front is expected to arrive from the east, over Finland and western Russia, but it’s not entirely clear exactly where these two fronts will meet.

Sweden could end up underneath either one of them, which gives slightly more predictable weather, or between the two, which would give us more unstable and changeable weather during the summer season.

If the high pressure front ends up over Sweden, SVT meteorologist Nitzan Cohen said, then summer could be hot and dry – maybe even very hot in periods, although this won’t necessarily be the case for the entire summer.

If we end up under the low pressure front in the west, then weather would be more rainy and unstable, although there would probably be some periods with hot weather coming in from the east.

In the last scenario, Sweden ends up between the two pressure fronts, with warm weather coming from the east and cold from the west. This is the most unpredictable option, with high temperatures and a lot of rain likely.

You can keep up-to-date with weather forecasts and weather alerts via Sweden’s meteorological office SMHI, whether that’s flood alerts or a risk of wildfire.

You can also keep up to date with any fire bans here.

Member comments

Anonymous - 1 June 2024 at 16:18 CEST

Well, this article reminds of the match forecasts like ‘this game has 3 possible results, win, lose or draw’.
So, anything can happen this summer, warm, dry, cold, rainy or cloudy. Everything is possible. Then this news has no specific information or value.

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Why are temperatures of 25C considered a heatwave in Sweden?

Sweden’s meteorological institute SMHI has issued heatwave warnings for this week, bringing with it a fire risk as temperatures are expected to hit 25-30 degrees Celsius across much of the country.

For readers from a lot of other countries, this might not feel like a big deal, but in Sweden, it’s warm.

There is no standard international definition of a heatwave, with each country deciding how to define it.

In Sweden, the national meteorological institute SMHI defines “high temperatures” as a maximum of 26C three days in a row and “very high temperatures” as a maximum of 30C three days in a row.

If temperatures hit 30C for five days in a row, or reach 33C for three days in a row, this qualifies as “very high temperatures”.

“Extreme heat is a new problem in Sweden,” Martina Söderström, from engineering consultancy company Sweco, told The Local. “It’s only really become an issue in the last ten years, with 2018 a bit of a wake-up call, with very high temperatures and a long heatwave.”

Summer 2018 saw a record number of wildfires ravage the country, Sweden’s hottest July in over 250 years, and the warmest summer since records began across most of southern and central Sweden.

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Not only are Swedes in general more used to cold temperatures, but the country’s infrastructure is built with cold temperatures in mind.

“It’s how we’ve built our buildings and our society. Buildings aren’t designed to protect people from heat and sunlight, rather they are designed to be insulated,” Söderström said.

Swedish buildings are also unlikely to feature ceiling fans or air conditioning, which, coupled with the fact that many of them are well-insulated, means that it can be difficult to cool them down once they’re already hot.

‘Natural solutions are an important piece of the puzzle’

Sweco recently investigated how a number of different European cities, including Stockholm, could build heatwave resilience as climate change looks likely to increase their frequency. In Stockholm, the number of heatwave days per year is expected to increase by 150 percent by 2100, with similar figures for the other Scandinavian capitals Copenhagen (160 percent) and Oslo (140 percent).

“The increase in temperature is greater here [in the Nordic countries] and we have probably come the least far in planning for it. We’ve been more focused on protecting ourselves from the cold,” Söderström said. “If you look at Rotterdam and Brussels, for example, they’re further ahead both in measuring the heat and maybe also have a clearer plan of the measures they’re going to take to mitigate it.”

Sweden also has a lot of sunlight during the summer – Stockholm gets over 18.5 hours of sunshine around midsummer, Malmö in the south gets over 15 hours, while in the far north of the country the sun doesn’t set for months. This means that temperatures often stay high during the night, providing fewer opportunities for people to recuperate from the heat and putting more stress on vulnerable individuals.

Cities are not designed with heat in mind, either, meaning that they often lack shade or trees, which contribute towards keeping temperatures low.

READ ALSO: How to keep cool in Sweden during summer heatwaves

“Natural solutions are an important piece of the puzzle,” Söderström said.

“It’s important to get green and blue infrastructure into city planning. Trees are great, as they give shade and also they release water vapour into the air which has a cooling effect, and bodies of water can have the same cooling effect – when it’s cooler than the surrounding air, it helps to cool it down. So water, green solutions, proximity to parks and shade, all of those things are important to have in a city environment.”

People in cities are also more affected by heatwaves, Söderström added, as hard surfaces like asphalt, concrete and metal roofs absorb heat, further warming the air as this heat is emitted.

“It’s important to think about this when planning areas. Think about getting plants and water into urban areas, but also the materials being used.”

Sweden can learn a lot from hotter countries

Sweden has “a lot to learn” from countries which are used to warmer temperatures already, she added, saying that there’s no need to “reinvent the wheel”.

“Things like how to plan buildings and cities, lighter materials, how to place buildings to allow the wind to move through them, building covered verandas, providing shade, for example.”

Although children, the elderly and people with underlying health conditions are more susceptible to high temperatures, they are by no means the only groups to feel the consequences of prolonged heatwaves.

“These types of temperatures put stress on all aspects of society,” Söderström said. “It’s not just individuals who are particularly sensitive to heat, but it has consequences for the entire population. It affects agriculture, forestry and our ability to secure a steady supply of water.”

“We need to start thinking about how to protect society [against heatwaves] and plan ahead. Measure, get an idea of where risk areas are or how they come about, and make a long-term plan for them,” she added.

“It’s time to act now. This is going to continue for at least another eighty years and if we act now, we can adapt so our society and our cities are more resilient in the future.”

Do you come from somewhere with a warmer climate than Sweden? How do you find the heat here? Does it affect you more or less than it did back home? Let us know in the comments below.

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