The survey by pollsters Ipsos on behalf of the Dagens Nyheter newspaper shows that the two Swedish parties risk getting less than the four percent of the votes they need to keep their seats in the European Parliament, with only two and a half week to go until the election.

The Centre Party (which belongs to the liberal and pro-EU Renew Europe group in the European Parliament) is polling at 3.6 percent in the survey and the Christian Democrats (which belong to conservative and Christian Democrat group EPP) at a nail-biting 3.9 percent.

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Both parties currently hold two seats in the European Parliament.

The Liberals are above the threshold, but not completely out of the woods, at 4.7 percent.

The Social Democrats could have their best EU election ever if the poll is right, with 29.6 percent saying they would vote for them (which is still lower than their normal result in a national Swedish election).

They’re followed by the Moderates at 19.1 percent, the Sweden Democrats at 17.8 percent, the Green Party at 10.8 percent and the Left Party at 7.6 percent.

European elections usually see a much lower turnout than national elections in Sweden: in 2019 only 55 percent of those eligible voted, compared to 84 percent in the 2022 national election.

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