It may partly be the gloomy January skies or the biting winter chills, but as 2024 gets off the ground in Germany, the mood seems especially sombre.
Europe’s largest economy is battling ferocious headwinds, whether it’s the struggling economy, the desperate search for workers or the the rise of the far-right. And that’s without mentioning the bitter war in Israel and Gaza and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Against this backdrop, it’s unsurprising that so many of The Local’s readers had fears about how life in Germany could change over the coming year.
Asked whether they believed life in the Bundesrepublik would get better or worse in 2024, 77 percent said they thought things would get worse, compared to just 15 percent who thought things would improve and 8 percent who thought life would remain roughly the same.
This pessimistic outlook was driven largely by two big fears: the rise of far-right parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the struggles people are having with the economic downturn and cost of living.
“I fear that with all the financial turmoil (rising energy costs; rents going up because of scarcity of housing; the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East) Germany will continue to lean toward the far-right and find scapegoats in its immigrant population,” said 79-year-old Berlin resident Jaton’ West.
Originally from the United States, Jaton’ said she often saw trends that happen in the US – like the rise of far-right politics – repeated in Germany a few years later.
“When folks get scared, they need something tangible and easily differentiated to blame,” she said.
Other readers also predicted that extreme anti-migrant parties would gain more traction in 2024, with the AfD potentially gaining its first state premier in either Thuringia, Brandeburg or Saxony.
READ ALSO: OPINION – Germany faces a hellish year in politics amid rise of far-right
Referring to the newcomer on the scene – the socially conservative and migrant-sceptic party founded by former Linke politician Sahra Wagenknecht – one reader said German politics this year would be a “complete clusterf*ck,” with the AfD winning in eastern states and Wagenknecht emerging as the wildcard.
Many readers felt that though the government was likely to make good progress on its skilled immigration law and passing the new citizenship law, attitudes to foreigners in Germany would remain the same – or even get worse.
One anonymous respondent told us they were concerned that more discrimination and polarisation could take place in 2024 as the new immigration law stokes resentment, particularly among “grumpy middle-aged German men”.
“Purely based on observations and with no empirical evidence, my gut feeling is that Germany knows it needs immigration but I’m not sure it really wants it,” said Frankfurt resident Simon Slade.
Cost of living crisis
Beyond fears about a rising tide of extremism, many readers were also feeling battered by the increased expense of living in Germany – and were worried things could get worse this year.
“High inflation, increase in taxes, deterioration of public services and infrastructure and lower economic performance” were the gloomy predictions one 42-year-old Berliner made for 2024.
“People will have less money to save due to higher costs,” they added.
“House prices and rents will continue to rise as will utilities and food prices,” said Simon Slade. “This could be managed by government borrowing but the German fiscal discipline mindset will end up causing unnecessary austerity.”
However, Simon said he thought the economic picture could brighten up around the second half of the year.
“Germany is economically affected more than most by world political events,” he said. “So, provided Trump doesn’t get in, Hamas gets defeated and Ukraine wins, things should get better!”
Though the overall inflation rate has been dropping in recent months, 34-year-old AK in Hamburg predicted there could be as much as a five or 10 percent hike in the cost of living.
READ ALSO: What’s the outlook for the German job market in 2024?
On a wider scale, the German economy could be hampered by “low performance, lots of strikes, and low productivity”, they said.
Other readers pointed out that the government’s tough rules around borrowing could limit their options when it comes to finding money to spend.
“The government and social organisations will require money, and the only place to get it is from the public,” said 45-year-old CP in Baden-Württemberg, who is moving to New Zealand after 17 years in Germany in part due to the economic situation. “This will include raising taxes, attempting to bring freelancers into this public social security system, etc.”
A sunnier outlook on the economy came from Jaton’ West, who told us she thought the new skilled worker immigration law could bring about positive changes.
“I hope that changes to immigration laws will result in filling more vacancies, which will also increase the demand for goods and services, which will eventually result in more jobs,” she said.
More digitalisation and better trains?
Of course, not everything is set to go downhill in 2024, and many of our readers said they thought the government would make progress on a few key issues this year.
Almost half of respondents (46 percent) said they expected Germany to make some headway with improving the national’s rail services and public transport, while the same percentage also said they thought the government would make progress with the new dual citizenship law.
READ ALSO: Everything that changes in immigration in Germany in 2024
Incredibly, around 40 percent of readers picked digitalisation as a topic they thought Germany would progress on in 2024, with one reader predicting that there would be more opportunities to pay by card in German shops and restaurants this year.
On the more pessimistic end, just 23 percent said they thought the government would successfully ease its immigration rules or boost the economy.
Even worse, a meagre eight percent thought Germany would start making foreigners feel more welcome in 2024 – the same percentage who thought the government would tackle the housing crisis.
Beyond these domestic issues, many pointed out that the Bundesrepublik would continue to be affected by global events like the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
For AK in Hamburg, the main hope was to see “more solidarity with the Palestinians” this year, as thousands of civilians – mostly women and children – continue to be killed by Israeli forces.
For Jaton’ West, trends in global politics would be key to whether Germany could get solve some of its issues at home.
“Germany is at the mercy of all these events that are beyond its control,” she explained.
“For example, we certainly need to support Ukraine, because if Putin wins, who knows what country he will go after next. This also means we need to beef up our own military.
“But this means less money is available to address internal problems like the energy, housing, and teacher shortages. And half-way addressing both external and internal problems could mean succeeding at neither.”
Thank you so much to everyone who completed our survey. Although we weren’t able to use all the responses, we read them all and they helped inform our article.
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