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POLITICS

Slowly but surely, French ex-PM edges to presidential run

His physical appearance transformed but largely pledging continuity with the rule of President Emmanuel Macron, France's popular former premier Edouard Philippe is staking out the ground for a run for the presidency in 2027.

Slowly but surely, French ex-PM edges to presidential run
Former French prime minister, Mayor of Le Havre and 'Horizons' party leader Edouard Philippe. Photo: LOIC VENANCE/AFP.

Philippe has been omnipresent in France over the past week, giving a blitz of media interviews and publishing his latest book, outlining positions well beyond his current remit as mayor of the northern port of Le Havre.

But the French have seen a man who is now almost physically unrecognisable from the premier who led the government from 2017-2020, notably including at the height of the first phase of the Covid-19 pandemic. Skin conditions have meant that Philippe, who used to sport a dark beard, is now almost completely bald.

While the 2027 race is still far off, there has already been intense jostling among Macron’s centrist faction given the president himself is not allowed to stand for a third consecutive term and polls indicate Le Pen has her best ever chance at winning the Elysee.

A poll this week by Toluna’s Harris Interactive for Challenges magazine showed that Le Pen would win the first round of presidential elections under any scenario. Of the pro-Macron faction, only either Philippe or smooth-talking Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire would make the second round ahead of hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon.

“A politician who comes up to you and says ‘The next presidential election? We are not thinking about it at all!’ is telling fibs,” Philippe told TF1 television in one of his many interviews this week.

Philippe, whose political party Horizons supports Macron but is not part of the president’s own Renaissance party, has yet to confirm he will run. But he has left so many hints that commentators assume he plans to seek the top job.

“I have a pretty clear idea, yes, of how things might go for me,” he told France Inter radio.

He warned in an interview with Le Monde that a victory by Le Pen, who was defeated by Macron in the past two elections in 2017 and 2022, was “possible”.

‘Plan for Elysee’

Philippe, who defected from the main right-wing party Les Républicains (LR) to back Macron in 2017, has outlined positions to the right of centre and notably expressed alarm that aspects of Islam are “radically different to what we want to do in our Republic”.

His latest book, “Places that Speak”, “is a step in his plan to take him to the steps of the Elysée,” the Le Monde daily said, describing Philippe as a man “with one foot in and one foot outside of the Macronie”.

Philippe will at all costs want to avoid the fate of his mentor, the former prime minister and Bordeaux mayor Alain Juppe, who was widely tipped for the 2017 presidential race but lost the LR nomination to François Fillon whose campaign was then torpedoed by a fake jobs scandal.

Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has warned the government that the election is still “far off” but this has not stopped ministers jostling for position, with Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, a protege of ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, notably declaring his intention last month.

In a sign of the potential banana skins ahead, a complaint has been filed with national finance prosecutors against Philippe and his team over alleged misuse of funds in Le Havre. He has yet to comment.

‘Come box with me’

Philippe’s media campaign this week allowed voters to get used to his new appearance due to the twin conditions he sufferers from — alopecia hair loss and vitiligo, which changes skin colour.

But the ex-premier, known as an obsessive boxing fanatic, has insisted his general health is unaffected.

“If the French say that candidates for presidential elections must have long hair then I haven’t got a chance,” he joked on TF1. But he added: “My health is excellent and I invite anyone who doubts this to come and box with me.”

By founding his own party, Philippe has notably put some political distance between himself and Macron, who he is wary of describing as a friend. His party already has 20,000 members, including 450 mayors.

“I am close to the president of the republic,” he told France Inter. “But I am not completely identical to him either, neither in terms of style, nor even in all his convictions.”

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POLITICS

Why is France accusing Azerbaijan of stirring tensions in New Caledonia?

France's government has no doubt that Azerbaijan is stirring tensions in New Caledonia despite the vast geographical and cultural distance between the hydrocarbon-rich Caspian state and the French Pacific territory.

Why is France accusing Azerbaijan of stirring tensions in New Caledonia?

Azerbaijan vehemently rejects the accusation it bears responsibility for the riots that have led to the deaths of five people and rattled the Paris government.

But it is just the latest in a litany of tensions between Paris and Baku and not the first time France has accused Azerbaijan of being behind an alleged disinformation campaign.

The riots in New Caledonia, a French territory lying between Australia and Fiji, were sparked by moves to agree a new voting law that supporters of independence from France say discriminates against the indigenous Kanak population.

Paris points to the sudden emergence of Azerbaijani flags alongside Kanak symbols in the protests, while a group linked to the Baku authorities is openly backing separatists while condemning Paris.

“This isn’t a fantasy. It’s a reality,” interior minister Gérald Darmanin told television channel France 2 when asked if Azerbaijan, China and Russia were interfering in New Caledonia.

“I regret that some of the Caledonian pro-independence leaders have made a deal with Azerbaijan. It’s indisputable,” he alleged.

But he added: “Even if there are attempts at interference… France is sovereign on its own territory, and so much the better”.

“We completely reject the baseless accusations,” Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry spokesman Ayhan Hajizadeh said.

“We refute any connection between the leaders of the struggle for freedom in Caledonia and Azerbaijan.”

In images widely shared on social media, a reportage broadcast Wednesday on the French channel TF1 showed some pro-independence supporters wearing T-shirts adorned with the Azerbaijani flag.

Tensions between Paris and Baku have grown in the wake of the 2020 war and 2023 lightning offensive that Azerbaijan waged to regain control of its breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region from ethnic Armenian separatists.

France is a traditional ally of Christian Armenia, Azerbaijan’s neighbour and historic rival, and is also home to a large Armenian diaspora.

Darmanin said Azerbaijan – led since 2003 by President Ilham Aliyev, who succeeded his father Heydar – was a “dictatorship”.

On Wednesday, the Paris government also banned social network TikTok from operating in New Caledonia.

Tiktok, whose parent company is Chinese, has been widely used by protesters. Critics fear it is being employed to spread disinformation coming from foreign countries.

Azerbaijan invited separatists from the French territories of Martinique, French Guiana, New Caledonia and French Polynesia to Baku for a conference in July 2023.

The meeting saw the creation of the “Baku Initiative Group”, whose stated aim is to support “French liberation and anti-colonialist movements”.

The group published a statement this week condemning the French parliament’s proposed change to New Caledonia’s constitution, which would allow outsiders who moved to the territory at least 10 years ago the right to vote in its elections.

Pro-independence forces say that would dilute the vote of Kanaks, who make up about 40 percent of the population.

“We stand in solidarity with our Kanak friends and support their fair struggle,” the Baku Initiative Group said.

Raphael Glucksmann, the lawmaker heading the list for the French Socialists in June’s European Parliament elections, told Public Senat television that Azerbaijan had made “attempts to interfere… for months”.

He said the underlying problem behind the unrest was a domestic dispute over election reform, not agitation fomented by “foreign actors”.

But he accused Azerbaijan of “seizing on internal problems.”

A French government source, who asked not to be named, said pro-Azerbaijani social media accounts had on Wednesday posted an edited montage purporting to show two white police officers with rifles aimed at dead Kanaks.

“It’s a pretty massive campaign, with around 4,000 posts generated by (these) accounts,” the source told AFP.

“They are reusing techniques already used during a previous smear campaign called Olympia.”

In November, France had already accused actors linked to Azerbaijan of carrying out a disinformation campaign aimed at damaging its reputation over its ability to host the Olympic Games in Paris. Baku also rejected these accusations.

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