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INSIDE SWEDEN

Inside Sweden: What might Sweden’s future weather look like?

Sweden may have avoided the heatwave that plagued much of Europe earlier this summer, but the past week certainly gave us a taste of extreme weather, including rain, wind and severe flooding, writes The Local's editor.

Inside Sweden: What might Sweden's future weather look like?
Storm Hans flooded one of Gothenburg's harbours. Photo: Björn Larsson Rosvall/TT

Some weather records had been broken even before this week’s rainfall. Delsbo/Bjuråker in Hälsingland, central Sweden, has seen 338.6 millimetres of rain so far this summer, with 84.2 millimetres falling on July 1st alone, according to Sweden’s meteorological office SMHI.

SMHI predicts that local rain records could conceivably also be broken in Hälsingland’s Kölsillre as well as Falköping-Valtorp in Västergötland and the city of Västerås before the summer is over.

Between Tuesday and Wednesday, Ullared on the west coast got the most rain: 83.6 millimetres.

At Kållered south of Gothenburg, where the E6 motorway had to shut completely after flooding, 76.1 millimetres of rain fell – two centimetres more than its previous record (although note that SMHI’s weather station at Kållered was only set up in 1994, so it doesn’t tell us much).

The downpour led to flooding in several parts of Sweden, causing rivers to burst their banks and trains to grind to a halt, including one that derailed near Hudiksvall after a railway embankment collapsed.

In Gothenburg, newspapers rejoiced in reporting that “poo water” (bajsvatten – one of Swedish newspapers’ many favourite headline words) was flowing through the Göta Älv river after the city’s sewage system couldn’t cope with the flooding.

Sweden is lucky in that extreme weather is rarely as extreme as in many other countries, but it’s on the increase here too. Global warming and climate change affect countries differently, and in Sweden extreme rainfalls are expected to increase in the future.

Sweden’s annual rainfall has already increased from 600 millimetres to 700 millimetres since 1930. By 2100, it may have increased another 20-40 percent, according to SMHI’s estimates.

It’s actually less strange than it sounds that global warming causes both heatwaves and rainfall. Warm air is able to hold more water molecules than cool air, so the warmer the atmosphere gets, the more concentrated the water vapour in the atmosphere gets, and it eventually comes down as rain.

Storm Hans, for example, is believed to have been caused by high sea surface temperatures. The warm water in areas affected by this summer’s heatwave evaporated and came down as rain in Scandinavia. It’s how the weather is supposed to work, but taken to extremes by global warming. Think of it as a wheel that’s spinning (as it’s supposed to), but faster and faster and eventually out of control.

Swedish cities are now rethinking their infrastructure to be able to cope with sudden rainfall in the future. I read an article by Swedish news agency TT this week which reported that Malmö had, among other things, lowered parts of Söderkullaparken, a park in the south of the city. The idea is that the park will then retain rain water, preventing it from flooding other parts of Malmö.

In Stockholm, similar plans are in place for Rålambshovsparken and Humlegården.

How are your countries coping with floods, heatwaves and climate change?

In other news

Sweden’s in the World Cup semi-final, heja! Here’s how to watch it in Sweden.

We compared how much things cost in Sweden at the moment compared to a year ago, and it’s grim, with the exception of energy costs which are likely to be lower this winter than last year.

Sweden’s National Institute of Economic Research believes GDP will fall 0.9 percent this year, but start climbing again next year. Brace for another probable interest rate hike next month, however.

There are arguably as many Swedish dialects as there are Swedes, but what are the general rules for how to tell where in Sweden someone comes from based off their speech? Here’s Becky’s guide to a few easy tricks. So if you’ve got that Swedish friend who constantly asks you if you can “tell that so-and-so comes from a different part of Sweden than so-and-so”, now you can tell them yes.

Spotify this week pulled out of negotiations with unions over striking a collective bargaining agreement, arguing that it can provide better perks for its employees without such a deal. If you work for Spotify and want to tell me whether or not you think that’s true – please feel free to drop me an email at [email protected] (you can be anonymous).

Inside Sweden is our weekly newsletter for members that gives you news, analysis and, sometimes, takes you behind the scenes at The Local. It’s published each Saturday and members can receive it directly to your inbox, by going to your newsletter preferences.

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WILDFIRES

IN MAPS: How big is the current wildfire risk in Sweden?

There's currently a risk of wildfires throughout almost all of Sweden, with the threat of forest fires in southern and central parts of the country, and grass fires in the north, forecaster SMHI has warned.

IN MAPS: How big is the current wildfire risk in Sweden?

How dry are Sweden’s forests?

On May 23rd, large areas south of Gävle were rated as “dry” in the map below, prepared by Sweden’s state-run surveyor Lantmäteriet for the state meteorologist SMHI and the Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB).

The map, captured just before noon on May 23rd, shows the bränsleuttorkning, or fuel dryness, an estimate of how much dry, burnable leaves and branches are on forest floors in Sweden. 

The colour code ranges from dark blue (very wet) to red (extremely dry). The dryest areas on this map, in orange, are listed as 4 on a six point scale (dry). Yellow areas are listed as 3 (moderately wet).

You can find an interactive version of the map here.

The assessment of the amount of dry wood in Sweden’s forests on May 23rd. Graphic: Lantmäteriet/SMHI

The surveyor also prepares a second map for SMHI and MSB showing the risk of forest fire assessed using the FWI (Fire Weather Index), an index created in Canada which combines measures of air humidity, temperature, 24-hour precipitation and wind speed. 

This shows that a lot of areas are already at an “extremely high risk of a forest fire” (red), a “very high risk” (dark orange) or “at risk” (orange). 

The Fire Weather Index map for Sweden on May 23rd. Graphic: Lantmäteriet

There is also a large or very large risk of grass fires on May 23rd in the north of Sweden, particularly north of Umeå and along the border with Norway. The green areas are where the grass fire season has already ended. Yellow areas have a “moderate risk”, light orange have a “high risk” and dark orange have a “very high risk” of grass fires. Light grey areas, which are mainly in mountain regions, are still covered in snow.

Grass fire risk for the afternoon of May 23rd. Graphic: Lantmäteriet

What measures are in place in Sweden?

Many municipalities in Skåne, Blekinge and Småland have already put fire bans in place, preventing people from lighting fires or barbecues outside. 

A map by Krisinformation.se (an official website which publishes emergency information from Swedish authorities), which can be found in English, shows which parts of Sweden have a fire ban in place, but it doesn’t go into specifics.

Below are the municipalities with fire bans in place on May 23rd – be aware that this may change, and always make sure to check Krisinformation.se’s website for the most up to date information before planning a barbecue or similar.

To find out exactly what applies in your area, click on your municipality on the map on Krisinformation.se’s website and then “more info”.

The link will take you to the homepage of whoever issued the fire ban, but it usually doesn’t take you directly to an explanation of what fire rules currently apply there, so you have to do a bit of digging.

Most municipalities and county administrative boards publish current fire bans quite prominently on their websites, though, sometimes as a banner at the top.

Some publish the information in English, but that’s far from always the case, so if you don’t speak Swedish you may have to run the text through a translation tool.

What other precautions can you take to avoid the risks?

Bear in mind that even if you do comply with local fire rules to the letter, you are always responsible for what happens to any fire you light, so you need to take proper precautions and be confident that there’s no risk of it spreading.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED – What do Sweden’s fire bans mean?

Make sure the grill is set up on a flat surface away from any grass, trees, sheds or anything else that could catch fire easily. Keep a bucket of water nearby, never leave the fire unattended, and make sure it’s completely extinguished before you leave.

It’s worth also consulting weather agency SMHI’s map of the risk of wildfires, which is separate from the map of fire bans. If you live in an area where there’s currently a high risk of wildfires, be extra careful before lighting a fire, even if there aren’t any official bans in place.

You could also download the Swedish Civil Contingencies’ free app Brandrisk ute (“Fire Danger Outdoors”), which will give you up-to-date information in English on the risk of wildfires in your area. It’s available both for iPhone and Android.

Is there a risk of water shortages? 

In many parts of the northernmost half of the country, the opposite is the case – ground water levels in small watercourses across much of Sweden north of Gävle are high or unusually high compared to the average level in 1961 to 2023 (light green, green and dark green in map below). In central Sweden, they are high or relatively high, while they are at normal levels in the south, apart from the border between Halland and Småland, where they are relatively low.

Ground water levels in small watercourses are currently high or very high compared to the average level in 1961 to 2023 (light green, green and dark green in map to the left) in most of northern Sweden, at about normal levels (light blue) across most of central Sweden, and low in the south of Västra Götaland, Halland, Småland, parts of Blekinge and Skane. 

Groundwater levels in Sweden on May 21st, 2024, compared to the average for the period 1961-2023. Graphic: Geological Survey of Sweden

Comparing groundwater water levels to the same week in 1961 to 2023, it’s normal (green on the map below) above normal (light blue) or far above normal (dark blue) across the vast majority of the country, apart from a pocket in Småland, where it is below normal (yellow) or far below normal (red), so it doesn’t look like there is currently a risk of drought or water shortages.

Water levels in small watercourses on May 21st, 2024 compared with the same week in 1961-2023. Graphic: Geological Survey of Sweden
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