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RIOTS

Will France’s riots benefit far-right Le Pen?

In her first speech in parliament as France's riots ebbed this week, far-right leader Marine Le Pen accused the government of turning the country into a "hell" that she had foreseen.

President for the French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) group Marine Le Pen Marine Le Pen attends a session of questions to the government at the National Assembly in Paris on July 4th, 2023.
President for the French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) group Marine Le Pen Marine Le Pen attends a session of questions to the government at the National Assembly in Paris on July 4th, 2023. Photo: Emmanuel Dunand / AFP

“The reality is that you didn’t want to hear any of the warnings,” said the 54-year-old, whose 89 MPs form the biggest opposition party in parliament since elections last year.

“We predicted what is happening despite great adversity. Unfortunately, we were right.”

She and her father Jean-Marie have been forecasting France’s demise and even civil war since the 1970s in doom-laden speeches focused on the presence of foreigners in France.

“Above all and before anything else, we need to stop anarchic immigration,” Le Pen continued.

The political fallout from France’s worst urban violence since 2005 remains highly uncertain, leading to speculation about who stands to gain from the breakdown in law and order that has shocked millions of French people.

Le Pen and many others on the right have sought to blame the mass looting and clashes on immigrant-origin communities, mostly from former French colonies in Africa, who have settled in suburban areas in towns and cities since the 1960s.

Despite the riots being sparked by allegations of police brutality and racism after the fatal shooting of Nahel M. – a 17-year-old boy of Algerian origin in Paris – many analysts feel the far-right promise of a radical crackdown on crime and immigration could find new takers.

READ ALSO: Ask the experts: How much of a threat are violent far-right activists in France?

“I think we’ll see a rise of several points for the National Rally in an extension of the quite incredible gains they’ve made over the last few years,” Olivier Babeau, co-founder of the right-leaning Institute Sapiens think-tank, told AFP.

“Without them really doing or saying much, events are helping them convince part of the population,” he added.

Le Pen achieved her highest-ever score in last year’s presidential elections – 41.5 percent in the second round – and then celebrated record parliamentary election results two months later.

Jean-Yves Camus, a far-right specialist at the Jean Jaures Foundation, agreed that Le Pen and the even more radical anti-Islam politician Eric Zemmour looked the most likely to gain from the riots.

“There’s a risk that Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen benefit from the situation, notably during the European elections which will take place next year,” he told AFP.

Government response

The government has sought to counter the narrative being pushed by the far-right and in the mainstream Republican party that immigrants were to blame for the unrest, which saw 273 buildings belonging to the security forces and 168 schools damaged.

Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said that 90 percent of the roughly 3,500 people arrested during the five nights of the most severe rioting were French nationals.

“Yes, there were some who could be from immigrant backgrounds,” Darmanin, who has Algerian roots, said of the lists of names of detainees he had seen while touring police stations.

READ ALSO: LATEST: Are there still riots and clashes in France?

“But there were a lot of Kevins and Matteos too,” he told a hearing in the Senate on Wednesday.

“This identity-based analysis seems wrong to me,” he said while acknowledging that the question of how best to integrate immigrants was “interesting.”

Camus believes that the government might be credited by some voters for having brought the unrest under control in under a week thanks to a massive deployment of up to 45,000 security forces at their peak.

The last nationwide riots in 2005 lasted for nearly three weeks and led the government to resort to a state of emergency.

“Without having to use a state of emergency and with a strategy of responding gradually, the government demonstrated that it was able to contain the movement,” he told AFP.

Left splits

President Emmanuel Macron has condemned the “inexcusable” police shooting which sparked the riots, which saw an officer open fire at point-blank range having stopped a 17-year-old driving a Mercedes without a licence in a west Paris suburb.

The centrist head of state has promised a response, but major police reform – called for by the left – remains off the table.

Macron has so far focused on how to punish parents whose children commit crimes amid shock about the young ages of many of the rioters.

The country’s leftist alliance is also at odds, with the head of the radical France Unbowed party Jean-Luc Melenchon creating rifts with his Socialist and Communist allies by failing to unequivocally call for calm.

He has suggested the riots were “poor people rebelling.”

Left-leaning Le Monde newspaper sharply criticised him in an editorial, saying that he was “at odds with a very strong demand for a return to order which is rising in public opinion.”

“In a country shocked by five days of urban riots, the left is not reassuring,” it said on Thursday.

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LIVING IN FRANCE

Why you might get a letter about French benefits

France is introducing stricter residency requirements for certain benefits, including those that foreigners in France can qualify for, and has begun sending letters out to recipients.

Why you might get a letter about French benefits

In April, the French government passed a decree that will tighten up residency requirements for different types of benefits, including the old-age top-up benefit.

Previously, the rule for most benefits was residency in France for at least six months of the previous year to qualify, though some required eight months and others, like the RSA (a top-up for people with little to no income) requires nine months’ residency per year.

However, the government announced in 2023 its intention to increase the period to nine months for several different programmes – which was put into decree in April – in an effort to combat social security fraud, as well as to standardise the system.

The changes, which will go into effect at the start of 2025, do not affect access to healthcare – foreigners can still access French public healthcare as long as they have been resident here for a minimum of three months. 

Similarly, the rules for accessing chômage (unemployment benefits) have not changed yet. Currently, you must have worked for at least six months out of the last 24 months to be eligible, as well as meeting other criteria including how you left your previous job.

This may change in the future, however, with the French government poised to reform the unemployment system again.

READ MORE: How France plans cuts to its generous unemployment system

Which benefits are affected?

The old-age benefit – or the ASPA – will apply the new nine month requirement. Previously, people needed to be in France for at least six months out of the year to qualify.

If you receive this benefit already, you will probably get a letter in the mail in the near future informing you of the change – this is a form letter and does not necessarily mean that your benefits will change.

If you are already a recipient – and you live in France for at least nine months out of the year – then you do not need to worry about your access to the ASPA changing.

If you want to access this benefit, it is available to certain foreigners, even though it is intended to help elderly (over 65) French citizens with low state pensions.

It is only available to foreigners who have been living legally in France for at least 10 years, and starting in 2025 you will need to spend nine out of 12 months a year in France. You can find more information at THIS French government website.

Otherwise, prestations familiales, or family benefits will be affected by the new nine month residency rule. These are available to foreigners with valid residency cards, as long as their children also live in France.

This includes the family allowance (given out by CAF), which is available for families on low incomes with more than two children, as well as the ‘Prime à la Naissance’, which is a means-tested one-off allowance paid in the seventh month of pregnancy to effectively help with the start-up costs of becoming a parent, will also be affected by the new nine month residency rule. 

READ MORE: France’s family benefit system explained

If you receive these benefits already, then you will likely receive a letter explaining the changes shortly.

And finally – the RSA, which is the top-up benefit for people with little to no income, was already held to the nine month standard, so there will be no residency-related changes.

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