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WEATHER

How high is Germany’s risk of forest fires right now?

There's a serious downside to Germany's current spate of dry, summery weather and that's a risk of forest fires. So just how big a risk is there?

A firefighting vehicle is pictured as smoke from a wildfire is seen in Beelitz, southwest of Berlin, eastern Germany
A firefighting vehicle is pictured as smoke from a wildfire is seen in Beelitz, southwest of Berlin, eastern Germany, on June 19, 2022. A combination of hot, dry and windy weather has increased the risk of forest fires in Germany. Photo: Odd ANDERSEN / AFP 

According to the German Weather Service DWD’s forest fire index, the risk is high to very high across much of the country until Tuesday.

The danger is greatest in the northeast where the highest warning level – level five, shown as dark red on the map – is in force in several places.

There are red level 4 areas in Lower Saxony, Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate.

But levels of at least three are forecast for some regions of all of Germany’s states. 

The maps show the risk of forest fires across Germany from Saturday to Wednesday (L to R). Dark red areas represent the highest risk level, level 5.

Where are the fires at the moment?

The number of larger forest fires in Germany is manageable at the moment.

A fire on a former military training area near Jüterbog, south of Berlin has been burning since 31 May as wind keeps fanning the fire over the area, which is over 700 hectares.

This is not the first time the area south of Berlin has been affected by massive forest fires. In August 2018, over 600 people were evacuated from their homes after a fire broke out in the former military training area.

And last year there were more than 500 fires in forest-dense Brandenburg – the highest number in years.

READ ALSO: Germany’s biggest forest fire of the year continues to spread near Berlin

A fire in a 50-hectare forest and moor area near Göldenitz, south of Rostock in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, has also been burning for a few days.

Why is the risk so high right now?

The lack of rain over the past few weeks in conjunction with high temperatures, wind and low humidity, can increase the risk of forest fires, according to DWD information.

Temperatures are well above 25C across much of Germany on Saturday.

The top layers of soil are bone dry in many places, said DWD agricultural meteorologist Andreas Brömser.

This applies to large parts of the north and east, but also to some areas in northern Baden-Württemberg, parts of Saarland, Franconia and the Upper Palatinate.

In some areas, the upper soil layers are as dry as they would usually be in August.

This situation is unlikely to change in the short term, either.

According to the DWD, there are no forecasts for persistent rain across the country.

It would need to rain for a prolonged period so that the water could soak through the bone-dry soil – dried-out soils can generally not absorb water quickly enough during short bursts of heavy rain.

Should you be worried about the impact on your health?

The high levels of smoke produced by forest fires can have health consequences, but if you can only smell the fire, it’s not a health risk at that point, said Torsten Bauer from the German Society for Pneumology and Respiratory Medicine.

Toxic gases and harmful soot are produced during combustion, but these only become dangerous when you can also see the smoke and fire, the lung specialist said. 

Those with lung or respiratory diseases, such as asthma, should be particularly careful as the pollutants can narrow the airways and soot can also cause lung damage.

So what should you do?

If there is a forest fire nearby, make sure you keep the windows closed.

READ ALSO: Hundreds evacuated near Berlin as forest fire threatens villages

What causes most forest fires?

Reckless behaviour plays a big part, according to experts.

“Campfires, barbecues or cigarette butts thrown away carelessly pose a high risk,” said Torge Brüning, fire protection engineer at R+V Versicherung.

Are there rules in place to help prevent fires?

Yes, there are strict rules in force across the country to protect forests. Open fires are strictly prohibited in all forests and nature reserves in Germany – with campfires, grills and camping stoves all falling under the ban. 

And, from March to October, there is also an absolute ban on smoking in forests across the country.

In some states, forests are smoke-free zones all year round. These include Brüning in Berlin, Brandenburg, Hesse, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia.

Anyone who breaches the ban can expect to receive a hefty fine. 

READ ALSO: More floods, droughts and heatwaves: How climate change will impact Germany

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WEATHER

Germany braces for more severe storms and heavy rain

Storms have been sweeping across Germany since Friday. Residents in the south-west were hit first, but other regions can expect thunderstorms and severe rain from Tuesday.

Germany braces for more severe storms and heavy rain

Parts of Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate, Hesse and Saarland should be prepared for thunderstorms and heavy rain.

“On Tuesday, another low-pressure zone will form over Germany, increasing the risk of severe weather,” said the German Weather Service (DWD).

Over the Whitsun weekend, a series of storms hit Germany. Residents in Saarland and south-west Rhineland-Palatinate in particular battled against flooding.

A deluge of rain caused landslides as well as flooded roads and cellars in these two regions. Rail services also came to a temporary standstill, but resumed on Saturday.

According to Saarland state premier Anke Rehlinger (SPD), emergency services were called out on 4,000 rescue operations. However, tragedy struck when a 67-year-old woman died after being hit by an emergency vehicle. Authorities said no one else was seriously injured.

READ ALSO: Floods easing in Germany’s Saarland but situation remains serious

From the Eifel via central Hesse to Bavaria

From Tuesday, stormy weather will affect other regions in Germany.

“This time, the focus will probably not be in Saarland and southern Rhineland-Palatinate, but a little further north, in the area from the Eifel region to central Hesse and south-east Bavaria,” said meteorologist Nico Bauer from the DWD.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (L) and Saarland State premier Anke Rehlinger (R) wades through water as they visit flood stricken town of Kleinblittersdorf.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (L) and Saarland State premier Anke Rehlinger (R) wades through water as they visit flood stricken town of Kleinblittersdorf. Photo: Iris Maria Maurer / AFP

From the early afternoon, thunderstorms, some of them heavy, are expected in a strip from south-east and eastern Bavaria via Hesse to northern Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia.

Heavy rainfall of up to 25 litres per square metre is forecast to hit these areas. Locally, up to 40 litres per square metre is possible. Hailstones and high winds are also expected. According to the DWD, heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely to move to the north-east of Germany during the night to Wednesday.

Isolated storms have also affected other regions in Germany. Four people are fighting for their lives and a further six are seriously injured following a lightning strike on the banks of the Elbe in Dresden on Monday evening. 

Damage ‘in the millions’ 

While the current crisis is not yet over, the areas affected by heavy flooding are already beginning to come to terms with the situation. According to initial estimates, the floods have caused damage “well into the millions”, Saarland’s state premier Rehlinger said. The exact extent will only be known once the water has receded completely.

“However, it is already clear today that we will have to deal with massive damage to private property, but also to infrastructure such as roads, bridges and day care centres,” she said. “We have been fighting against masses of water for a few days, but we will certainly have to deal with the consequences for years.”

According to DWD meteorologist Bauer, heavy rainfall like this is becoming more frequent in Germany due to climate change.

“They are becoming more frequent and more intense, simply because a warmer atmosphere can absorb more moisture and the rainfall is therefore heavier,” he said. 

READ ALSO: ‘Record heat deaths and floods’: How Germany is being hit by climate change

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