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Turks in Germany predict artist exodus after Erdogan reelection

Turkish artists and intellectuals living in Germany fear that a whole generation of creative young people will leave Turkey after Erdogan's historic election win.

German and Turkish flags
Archive photo shows a German and Turkish flag flying next to each other in front of the Chancellery in Berlin. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Bernd von Jutrczenka

Turkish artist Bugra Erol, 36, has worked between Berlin and Istanbul over the last few years but his country’s decision to re-elect Recep Tayyip Erdogan has spurred him to move his studio to Germany
for good.

“Life has been difficult for artists like me in the last decade and the result of the last election was the cherry on the cake,” he told AFP.

“I feel like I spent all my life with the struggle,” said Erol, who first came to Berlin in 2017 in search of more artistic freedom.

Erdogan, who enters his third decade of rule with Sunday’s historic victory, has overseen the country’s worst economic crisis since the 1990s with inflation running at more than 40 percent.

He has also caused growing consternation with his crackdowns on dissent, with thousands of opposition figures and campaigners jailed since an attempted coup in 2016.

READ ALSO: Turkish diaspora voters head to polls in Germany

Refuge for dissidents

Isil Egrikavuk, a performance artist and academic based in Berlin, believes many of her peers will choose to leave Turkey.

“People have been leaving increasingly” since the Gezi Park protests of 2013 and “in the last years these numbers increased also”, she said.

“Some people were waiting for the result of the elections, of course, to determine whether to leave or stay. And I think with this result, the brain migration will continue.”

Egrikavuk, 42, points to “a bit of relief in seeing that (Erdogan) won with a very close margin”.

Turkish citizens voting in Germany

A man casts his vote at a polling station at the Turkish consulate general in Hürth, western Germany. Photo: Oliver Berg / dpa / AFP) / Germany OUT

“That shows that he is not so strong any more, half of the country doesn’t want him,” she said. But she also sees “hopelessness or sadness or despair among the opposition, or people who are more open minded and liberal, who want more freedom”.

There are roughly three million people of Turkish origin or descent living in Germany, the largest diaspora outside Turkey.

A clear majority of Turks in Germany voted for Erdogan in both the first election two weeks ago and the runoff on Sunday.

The so-called Turkish guest workers who arrived in the 1960s were often religious working-class people from rural areas and have passed on their values to their children — many of whom vote Erdogan today.

But Germany has also become a refuge for Turkish dissidents in recent years, attracting artists, musicians and academics who have clashed with the government or grown frustrated with restrictions on their freedom.

‘Still hope’

Some politicians in Germany have also expressed disappointment with the election result, including Agriculture Minister Cem Ozdemir — who himself has Turkish roots.

Ozdemir accused Erdogan’s supporters in a tweet of celebrating his victory “without having to answer for the consequences of their vote”.

Many people in Turkey would have to continue living in poverty and with restrictions on their freedom, he said. “They are rightly angry. This will have to be talked about!”

READ ALSO: Turks in Germany hope for citizenship law overhaul

Exiled journalist Can Dundar, who has been living in Berlin since 2016 with an arrest warrant against him in Turkey, also believes many young creatives will now leave Turkey.

“The country is unbearable now for (young people) in every sense, economically, psychologically, sociologically, daily life is destroyed, economic conditions are horrible,” he told AFP.

But Dundar, who was handed a jail sentence after his Cumhuriyet newspaper published an article criticising the government, has always intended to return home.

“From the first day, it was my target to go back and struggle for the reestablishment of Turkish democracy. And I still want to do so,” he said.

He believes “there is still hope” of shifting Turkey away from autocratic rule.

“Turkey is not a proper democracy like France or Germany, but it’s not Belarus or Iran,” he said.

Likewise, Erol said he will “always be part of the struggle to live the life we want.

“Istanbul will always be my real home.”

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ECONOMY

‘Turning point’: Is Germany’s ailing economy on the road to recovery?

The German government slightly increased its 2024 growth forecast Wednesday, saying there were signs Europe's beleaguered top economy was at a "turning point" after battling through a period of weakness.

'Turning point': Is Germany's ailing economy on the road to recovery?

Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

READ ALSO: Which German companies are planning to cut jobs?

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.

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