SHARE
COPY LINK

POLITICS

Spain’s local elections set to put PM on the back foot

Spain votes Sunday in local and regional polls which will be a barometer for a year-end general election that surveys suggest Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will lose, heralding a return of the right.

Spain's local elections set to put PM on the back foot
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez takes part in the closing rally of Socialist Party (PSOE)'s electoral campaign in Barcelona on May 26, 2023. Photo: Pau BARRENA/AFP.

The stakes are high for Sánchez, whose Socialist party governs the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy in coalition with the far-left Podemos.

Voters are casting ballots for mayors in 8,131 municipalities while also electing leaders and assemblies in 12 of Spain’s 17 regions — 10 of which are currently run by the Socialists.

In an update at 2:00 pm (1200 GMT), five hours into voting, participation in the local elections stood at 36.54 percent, or 1.59 percentage points higher than in the 2019 polls, official figures showed. 

Some 35.5 million people are voting in the local elections while 18.3 million are eligible to cast ballots in the regional polls. 

Balloting ends at 8:00 pm, with initial results due out two hours later. 

Sánchez has been in office since 2018, and Sunday’s elections find him facing several obstacles: voter fatigue with his left-wing government, soaring inflation and falling purchasing power. 

“I do think it’s an important test (ahead of the year-end elections). It’s the only way we have of expressing our opinion about all these years they’ve been in government,” 61-year-old doctor Maria Alonso told AFPTV after voting in Madrid, without saying who earnt her vote. 

Microbiologist Irene Diaz said the local and regional polls “were as important” as the upcoming general election. 

“At the end of the day, these are elections in your city which involve laws and legislation that will end up impacting your day-to-day life,” the 30-year-old said. 

Right-wing targets ‘Sanchismo’

Sánchez expressed confidence that voters would cast their ballots responsibly.

“Most of our citizens will vote positively… for what is important: for public healthcare, public education and housing policies for our young people,” he said after voting in Madrid. 

Opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, head of the right-wing Popular Party (PP), urged people “to vote massively” and ensure the next government was a strong one.  

“We have difficult years ahead of us but… the stronger the government, the stronger our democracy will be and the faster we will get out of the economic, institutional and social problems we have in our country,” he said.

Feijóo has denounced Sanchez as not only pandering to the far left but also to the Basque and Catalan separatist parties on which his minority government has relied for parliamentary support.

He has positioned Sunday’s vote as a referendum on “Sanchismo”, a derogatory term for Sánchez’s policies.

In his campaign closing remarks, Sánchez focused on his government’s record in bolstering the economy, fighting drought and managing Spain’s increasingly sparse water resources.

“Social democratic policies suit Spain a lot better than neo-liberal policies because we manage the economy a lot better,” he said.

Of the 12 regions where new leaders will be elected, 10 are currently run by Socialists, either alone or in coalition.

The number of regions the PP manages to wrest from the Socialists will be important in determining public perceptions of whether Feijóo has won this first round — and whether his victory in the year-end general election is a foregone conclusion.

A far-right problem

But Feijóo has his own problems, in particular the far-right Vox, the third-largest party in parliament, which hopes to become an indispensable partner for the PP. Since last year, the two parties have governed together in just one region, Castilla y Leon, which was not voting on Sunday.
 
Aware that the key to winning the general election is conquering the centre, Feijóo has sought to moderate the PP’s line since taking over last year, while also keeping Vox at a distance. A strong regional showing by Vox would put him on the back foot.
 
The campaign, which ended Friday, was marred in the final week by allegations of fraud involving postal votes, largely implicating individuals allied with the Socialists. The allegations pose yet another hurdle for Sánchez, who has made good governance a priority in contrast to the corruption of various former right-wing governments.

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members

PROPERTY

ANALYSIS: Is Spain’s decision to axe golden visa about housing or politics?

The government claims the decision to scrap the golden visa is about controlling a speculative property market, but experts aren't sure it'll make much of a difference and critics say it's a political 'smokescreen'.

ANALYSIS: Is Spain's decision to axe golden visa about housing or politics?

On Monday Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez shocked many and announced plans to scrap Spain’s golden visa (visado de oro). You can read more of The Local’s extensive coverage of this decision here and its potential impacts below. 

The golden visa allowed non-EU nationals to gain Spanish residency if they bought property worth €500,000.

The visa, first introduced in 2013 by the then centre-right Partido Popular government, has been criticised for essentially selling Spanish residency (and by extension, EU rights) to the wealthy, as well as contributing to property price inflation. 

READ ALSO:  Q&A: When and why is Spain axing the golden visa?

However, some commentators in Spain say that foreigners purchasing luxury properties for half a million euros or more has little impact on Spaniards struggling to find affordable housing, and that the number of property purchases made through the scheme made little difference to the market overall.

Golden visas issued through the purchase of Spanish properties worth more than half a million euros total 14,576 since its inception, according to Spain’s Housing Minister Isabel Rodríguez.

Now, after the dust has settled, property experts and politicians alike have begun to consider the potential consequences of the decision and some are questioning whether it was about housing at all or was a purely political move.

Critics of Sánchez argue that scrapping the golden visa is a ‘smokescreen’ to distract from poor management of the rental sector. Property experts wonder how much effect it will really have on reducing prices for locals, and some fear the decision could even drive away foreign investment in Spain.

What the experts say

It’s certainly true that some experts, whether in property or immigration law, feel the decision could deter non-EU foreigners from coming and investing in Spain.

Maryem Essadik Rhafour, an immigration law expert and partner at Marfour International Law Firm, spoke to The Local and described the move as “a bad decision” that could potentially drive away foreign investment to Spain.

The golden visa, she said, “is a type of investment that has brought a lot of foreign capital to Spain. Moreover, behind every investment there are thousands of sources of income for the local population.”

READ ALSO: What the end of Spain’s golden visa means for foreigners

“This type of measure slows down the arrival of foreigners with a high level of economic capacity and a high level of consumption,” Rhafour added.

Though the total number of golden visa holders is small overall, according to transparency data analysed by Spanish daily El Diario golden visa holders have pumped €5 billion into the Spanish property market over the last five years alone, something that some argue distorted the market overall.

Yet the proportion of property sales made through the scheme is very small. A spokesperson from property website Fotocasa told state broadcaster RTVE that golden visas represented “a very small percentage” of property purchases and that removing them “would not really have an impact on the common residential sale and purchase market.”

A couple pose next to a Ferrari car in Puerto Banus, near Marbella, on March 30, 2013. AFP PHOTO / JORGE GUERRERO (Photo by Jorge Guerrero / AFP)

 

However, despite that some feel that the decision is still a positive step forward and symbolic in terms of trying to address the structural problems in the Spanish property market. In Spain in recent years, anti-foreigner and anti-tourist sentiment  has grown. Much of this comes from a resentment among Spaniards towards short-term tourist lets (known as pisos turisticos in Spanish) that cater to remote workers and digital nomads, which has an inflationary effect on local markets.

As such, for many the issues of spiralling rental costs, tourism, the influx of digital nomads and the golden visa are all intertwined and the government’s measure, indeed any measure, perceived to be doing something about the impact on Spaniards is welcome.

READ ALSO: Where in Spain do locals ‘hate’ tourists?

Julio Rodríguez, a member of Spain’s Council of Statistics, told RTVE that although “it will have a limited impact on the overall demand for housing… the message is positive in terms of reducing speculative tension.”

This market speculation increased particularly after the pandemic, when the number of golden visas given out increased rapidly.

“It was in 2022 when the alarm was raised as golden visas doubled,” Housing Minister Isabel Rodríguez told journalists at a press conference on Tuesday.

“In 2016, 471 golden visas linked to Spanish real estate were issued. In 2017, 946. In 2018, 988. In 2019, 861. In 2020, 632. In 2021, 997. In 2022, 2,017. And in 2023, 3,272.”

However, despite this clear post-pandemic uptick in golden visas, it is undeniable that the number of foreigners purchasing property in this way made up a very small proportion of the total number of properties bought by foreigners in Spain. Critics have been quick to point out that golden visa holders represent a far smaller share of the foreign buyers market than other foreign second homeowners without a visa (0.7 percent compared to non-resident foreign buyers who bought a Spanish home in 2023).

So it seems that on balance, the decision to scrap the golden visa is certainly seen as a positive step or symbol, but may not have as big an impact as many first thought, or indeed the government let on when announcing it.

Smokescreens and demagoguery

Despite praise from some Spaniards, the Sánchez government has faced growing criticism in the aftermath of the decision. Many feel it is a performative political ploy that will have little impact on house prices.

Citing statistics on the percentage (less than 1 percent) of properties golden visa holders purchased, opposition Partido Popular spokesman Miguel Tellado claimed in a press conference that eliminating the golden visa is “a smokescreen to cover up the government’s incompetence in housing policy.”

“It’s a good try but I have to tell you that it’s not going to work,” he added.

But it’s not just Sánchez’s political opponents critical of the move. President of the Spanish Chamber of Commerce, José Luis Bonet, has described the scrapping of the golden visa scheme as a “demagogic and ill-advised gesture”.

Luxury houses and hotels in Llafranc, on Spain’s Costa Brava. Photo: Manuel Torres García/Unsplash

The commerce leader also believes the decision could drive foreign investment away. “Spain has become the summer resort and second home for millions of Europeans. Reducing the ways for them to come here seems to me to be unwise,” he said.

Ruth Merino, regional Minister of Finance, Economy and Public Administration in the Valencia region, where many golden visa holders choose to settle, described the decision as “electioneering.”

“This is not good news, it gives the impression that Sánchez does not have a plan for housing: he has electioneering ideas,” she said.

Internal politics

There’s also another layer to the political considerations behind this decision, and it revolves around internal management. The Sánchez government has faced growing criticism for its housing policy not only from opponents on the right, but also from the left too.

Sánchez’s Socialists (PSOE) are in coalition with far-left Sumar, a party which has long called for better regulation of the property market and protections for Spaniards getting priced out of their own towns and cities. Scrapping the golden visa could also speak to the internal political pressures within the Spanish coalition: Sumar had been pressuring PSOE for this, or restrictions on the golden visa scheme at the very least, for some time.

Upon hearing the news, Culture Minister Ernest Urtasun, a Sumar member, referred to the Spanish golden visa as a “European disgrace”, adding that “it cannot be that someone is given a residence permit for the fact of being rich; this is creating first and second-class citizens.”

In this sense, and with the opinions of property experts considered, scrapping the golden visa does appear more like a political step than it does a strictly housing policy decision.

The political benefits are clear. By scrapping the golden visa, the government can stand up to its critics that claim it does nothing about the housing crisis, while also simultaneously keeping members of its coalition on side and quelling frustrations (however disingenuously) among Spaniards about the property market more widely, that is to say: the government felt political pressure to be seen to be doing something about the housing problem, not that this decision will necessarily do anything to solve it.

SHOW COMMENTS