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Spain’s local elections set to put PM on the back foot

Spain votes Sunday in local and regional polls which will be a barometer for a year-end general election that surveys suggest Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will lose, heralding a return of the right.

Spain's local elections set to put PM on the back foot
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez takes part in the closing rally of Socialist Party (PSOE)'s electoral campaign in Barcelona on May 26, 2023. Photo: Pau BARRENA/AFP.

The stakes are high for Sánchez, whose Socialist party governs the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy in coalition with the far-left Podemos.

Voters are casting ballots for mayors in 8,131 municipalities while also electing leaders and assemblies in 12 of Spain’s 17 regions — 10 of which are currently run by the Socialists.

In an update at 2:00 pm (1200 GMT), five hours into voting, participation in the local elections stood at 36.54 percent, or 1.59 percentage points higher than in the 2019 polls, official figures showed. 

Some 35.5 million people are voting in the local elections while 18.3 million are eligible to cast ballots in the regional polls. 

Balloting ends at 8:00 pm, with initial results due out two hours later. 

Sánchez has been in office since 2018, and Sunday’s elections find him facing several obstacles: voter fatigue with his left-wing government, soaring inflation and falling purchasing power. 

“I do think it’s an important test (ahead of the year-end elections). It’s the only way we have of expressing our opinion about all these years they’ve been in government,” 61-year-old doctor Maria Alonso told AFPTV after voting in Madrid, without saying who earnt her vote. 

Microbiologist Irene Diaz said the local and regional polls “were as important” as the upcoming general election. 

“At the end of the day, these are elections in your city which involve laws and legislation that will end up impacting your day-to-day life,” the 30-year-old said. 

Right-wing targets ‘Sanchismo’

Sánchez expressed confidence that voters would cast their ballots responsibly.

“Most of our citizens will vote positively… for what is important: for public healthcare, public education and housing policies for our young people,” he said after voting in Madrid. 

Opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, head of the right-wing Popular Party (PP), urged people “to vote massively” and ensure the next government was a strong one.  

“We have difficult years ahead of us but… the stronger the government, the stronger our democracy will be and the faster we will get out of the economic, institutional and social problems we have in our country,” he said.

Feijóo has denounced Sanchez as not only pandering to the far left but also to the Basque and Catalan separatist parties on which his minority government has relied for parliamentary support.

He has positioned Sunday’s vote as a referendum on “Sanchismo”, a derogatory term for Sánchez’s policies.

In his campaign closing remarks, Sánchez focused on his government’s record in bolstering the economy, fighting drought and managing Spain’s increasingly sparse water resources.

“Social democratic policies suit Spain a lot better than neo-liberal policies because we manage the economy a lot better,” he said.

Of the 12 regions where new leaders will be elected, 10 are currently run by Socialists, either alone or in coalition.

The number of regions the PP manages to wrest from the Socialists will be important in determining public perceptions of whether Feijóo has won this first round — and whether his victory in the year-end general election is a foregone conclusion.

A far-right problem

But Feijóo has his own problems, in particular the far-right Vox, the third-largest party in parliament, which hopes to become an indispensable partner for the PP. Since last year, the two parties have governed together in just one region, Castilla y Leon, which was not voting on Sunday.
 
Aware that the key to winning the general election is conquering the centre, Feijóo has sought to moderate the PP’s line since taking over last year, while also keeping Vox at a distance. A strong regional showing by Vox would put him on the back foot.
 
The campaign, which ended Friday, was marred in the final week by allegations of fraud involving postal votes, largely implicating individuals allied with the Socialists. The allegations pose yet another hurdle for Sánchez, who has made good governance a priority in contrast to the corruption of various former right-wing governments.

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POLITICS

Who will win Catalonia’s regional elections?

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialists hope to seize power in Spain's Catalonia region in elections Sunday, to prove its appeasement strategy has more appeal than the separatist agenda of Carles Puigdemont. The stakes are high for both.

Who will win Catalonia's regional elections?

This wealthy northeastern region of some eight million people votes Sunday to elect deputies to its 135-seat regional parliament.

Opinion polls suggest Sánchez’s Socialists are well ahead of Puigdemont’s hardline separatist JxCat and its rival ERC, led by current regional leader Pere Aragonès. 

A poll by Spain’s leading daily El País found that a coalition between separatist parties Junts, ERC and CUP would only have a 28 percent chance of reaching the majority; while a coalition by left-wing parties the PSC (PSOE’s Socialist branch), ERC and Comuns has a 78 percent possibility of forming a government. 

Another poll by Spain’s state-run CIS research body also has the PSC as the favourites to win with between 29.8 and 33.2 percent of the vote.

Other commentators haven’t ruled out the possibility of an electoral stalemate with neither block capable of obtaining a majority, which would result in repeat elections in the region of 8 million people. 

Junts’ Puigdemont was Catalan leader at the time of the failed independence bid in October 2017 which sparked Spain’s worst political crisis in decades.

Despite fleeing Spain to avoid prosecution, he has remained active in the region’s politics, leading JxCat from Belgium. He is hoping his imminent return from exile under an amnesty bill soon to become law will boost his chances in the vote.

For Sánchez, seizing back power from the separatists – who have ruled the region for a decade – would be a major victory in his efforts to turn the page on the crisis sparked by the secession bid.

READ ALSO: Why regional elections in Catalonia matter to Spain’s future

It would also allow him to press the restart button on his latest term in office, which began in November.

So far, it has been soured by bitter right-wing opposition and a corruption probe into his wife, which almost prompted his resignation late last month.

Socialist hopes high

A win by the Catalan Socialist party would allow the region “to turn over a new leaf after 10 lost years” said its leader Salvador Illa, 58, who served as Spain’s health minister during the pandemic.

Although the Socialists won the most votes during the last regional election in February 2021, Illa was unable to piece together a governing majority. The separatist parties took power by clubbing together to form a 74-seat coalition.

Since becoming Spanish prime minister in June 2018, Sánchez has sought to defuse the Catalan conflict. He has maintained dialogue with the moderate ERC and pardoned the separatists jailed over their role in the 2017 secession bid.

And late last year, he moved to push through an amnesty bill for those still wanted by the justice system in exchange for the separatists’ parliamentary support for him to secure a new term in office.

Under terms of the bill, Puigdemont – who fled Spain to avoid prosecution after the botched independence bid – will finally be able to return home after more than six years in exile.

It will be put to a final parliamentary vote later this month.

Catalan separatist leader and candidate of Junts per Catalunya Carles Puigdemont (R) raises his fist during a campaign rally in the French southeastern town of Argelès-sur-Mer. (Photo by Josep LAGO / AFP)

High stakes for Puigdemont

Puigdemont is for the moment unable to enter Spain, where he is still subject to an arrest warrant.

So he has been campaigning for Sunday’s election from a southern French seaside town near the Spanish border, and polls suggest his support has been rising steadily in recent weeks.

READ MORE: Exiled separatist leader rallies support in France ahead of Catalan election

“The independence movement has stalled a bit (since the botched 2017 separatist bid) but I think Puigdemont’s candidature has generated some enthusiasm,” Arnau Olle, a 29-year-old IT specialist from a town near Barcelona told AFP at a weekend campaign rally in Argeles-sur-Mer.

Puigdemont, who served as Catalan leader from January 2016, wants to have another shot at leading the region if the separatists retain a majority, and if JxCat comes out on top.

But that could be complicated given the divisions within the pro-independence movement and the emergence in recent months of the ultranationalist Catalan Alliance. While polls suggest it could win several seats, no other party wants to enter into a pact with it.

For Puigdemont, Sunday’s vote is also a high-stakes game, not least because he has pledged to retire from politics if he does not win.

Polls suggest the Socialists will win around 40 seats, which would mean it would need allies to reach the 68 required for a governing majority.

One possible alliance would involve the far left and Aragones’s ERC, but that would likely cause an implosion within the independence movement.

Political analyst Ernesto Pascual of the Autonomous University of Barcelona did not see such alliances hurting Sánchez’s left-wing government, whose fragile parliamentary majority depends on support from both JxCat and ERC.

Neither party has an interest in doing anything that might “force Sánchez to resign and trigger new elections”, he said.

That could change the scenario dramatically, he explained, referring to the possibility of a new government of the right which has vowed to rollback any move to amnesty the separatists.

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