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UKRAINE

Paris sees success in bringing Zelensky to G7

When Volodymyr Zelensky landed in Hiroshima on Saturday to meet G7 leaders, the Ukrainian president arrived on a French government plane -- a move Paris sees as a key diplomatic success.

Published: 21 May 2023 09:01 CEST
Paris sees success in bringing Zelensky to G7
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky (R) speaks with France's President Emmanuel Macron (2nd L) during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Leaders' Summit in Hiroshima on May 20, 2023. Photo: Ludovic MARIN/AFP.

Bringing Zelensky to the summit gives him a chance to engage with some key countries that have so far withheld their support against Russia’s invasion, and French President Emmanuel Macron hopes the opportunity will be a game-changer for Kyiv.

Macron, who has faced criticism for his statements on Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, has lobbied to enable the Ukrainian president to make his case in front of some Arab leaders, as well as India and Brazil, who have also been invited to Japan.

A week ago, when Macron hosted his Ukrainian counterpart for dinner at the Elysee Palace, the idea of Zelensky attending the summit of his main Western allies was already under discussion, said a Macron adviser, but the logistics had yet to be figured out.

Finally, Kyiv came through with a formal request.

“They asked us on Wednesday if we could transport them on Thursday. We said yes,” said the French presidential official, speaking on customary condition of anonymity.

A French Air Force Airbus A330 picked up Zelensky at the Polish border and flew him first to Saudi Arabia, where he addressed an Arab League summit on Friday. Then from there, he traveled to Japan Saturday to immediately begin bilateral meetings.

‘Very positive signals’

The trip was the first to the Asia-Pacific for the wartime president since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine 15 months ago.

On board the French plane, accompanied by Isabelle Dumont, Macron’s adviser on Ukraine and former ambassador in Kyiv, Zelensky prepared “very carefully” for his mission, said the French side.

When greeting Zelensky in a large hotel in Hiroshima, Macron expressed hope the meetings on the sidelines of the summit will offer Kyiv a “a unique opportunity.”

“I think it can change the game,” Macron said. 

Zelensky assured Macron that he had already received “very positive signals” from Arab countries the day before.

Zelensky has proposed holding an international peace summit over Ukraine and wants to rally as many countries as possible behind his cause.

In order to achieve this, Paris believes it is crucial for Zelensky to have a one-on-one with key leaders, such as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has pointedly refrained from condemning the Russian invasion, or Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who has not sent weapons to Ukraine or joined sanctions on Russia.

Modi’s meeting with Zelensky on Saturday gave cause for optimism.

“I can assure you that to resolve this India and, me personally, will do whatever we can do,” Modi told Zelensky.

And the Elysee says Lula also plans to meet his Ukrainian counterpart in Hiroshima, though Brasilia has not confirmed that.

“We were able to convince the Japanese presidency” of the G7 “not only to invite President Zelensky to Hiroshima, but to allow him to exchange” with these emerging countries, during a session scheduled for Sunday at the end of the summit, said the French official. “It’s France’s initiative.”

Paris is hoping for a strong declaration at the end of the summit on Sunday that would show international unity behind “respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine” and the need to “create together the conditions for peace”.

This French effort comes as US President Joe Biden this week announced, in a major reversal, a decision to support providing advanced warplanes including F16s to Ukraine and to back efforts to train Kyiv’s pilots — something long sought by Zelensky.

France has said it is ready to train Ukrainian pilots as soon as the coveted jets arrive in Ukraine.

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ENERGY

OPINION: A winter energy crunch in Europe looks a distinct possibility

Last winter passed without major gas shortages, thanks to EU-wide actions - but the problem is far from solved for the winters to come, warns global energy specialist Professor Michael Bradshaw.

Published: 6 September 2023 12:16 CEST
OPINION: A winter energy crunch in Europe looks a distinct possibility

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine imposed a sudden energy shock on Europe 18 months ago. Faced with the prospect of much less Russian gas, there were fears that Europe’s energy infrastructure would not cope with winter 2022-23, causing economies to crumble.

Yet a mild winter and the EU’s gradual rollout of a plan to reduce its energy consumption and buy more from alternative suppliers saw it emerge shaken but not beaten on the other side.

Germany, Italy and other gas-reliant nations pivoted from Russian dependency without major electricity shortages.

Since then, there has been more good news. Energy prices have fallen steadily in 2023, while Europe’s gas storage levels hit 90 percent capacity three months ahead of the November target and could even hit 100 percent in September.

According to politicians like the German energy minister, Robert Habeck, the worst of the energy crisis is over.

Yet, as we shall see, it’s a little early to be so confident.

New vulnerabilities

The share of EU piped gas imports from Russia fell from 39 percent to just 17 percent between early 2022 and early 2023. To cope with this shift, the EU has become much more reliant on shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) than before.

LNG’s total share of EU gas imports rose from 19 percent in 2021 to around 39 percent in 2022, amid a rapid upgrade to infrastructure that aims to have grown LNG capacity by one-third between 2021 and 2024. (Indeed, 13 percent of LNG imports into the EU actually still come from Russia, whose shipments have also significantly increased since the invasion).

This LNG increase has made European countries vulnerable to volatility in that market – particularly as 70 percent of these imports are bought at short notice rather than using the long-term oil indexed contracts that prevail in Asia.

For example, we’ve seen Europe’s benchmark gas price ticking upwards in recent weeks due to concerns over strikes at Australian LNG plants. This shows that supplies remain tight and that there are many potential disruptions in our highly interconnected world market.

To synchronise demand for LNG, the European Commission has introduced initiatives like the EU Energy Platform, an IT platform that makes it easier for supplier companies in member states to jointly buy the fuel. However, it is uncertain what level of supplies can be channelled through this instrument as it remains untested. Additionally, the industry fears this kind of state intervention could backfire and undermine the functioning of the market.

As for pipeline gas, Norway has overtaken Russia to become Europe’s leading supplier, providing 46 percent of the requirement in early 2023 (compared to 38 percent a year earlier). This extra load has strained Norway’s gas infrastructure. In May and June, delayed maintenance work caused sluggish flows that drove up prices, again showing how tight the European market is at present. Extended maintenance work in Norway leading to more obstructions in future looks distinctly possible.

Meanwhile, the EU is still expected to have to buy around 22 bcm (billion cubic metres) from Russia this year. That’s the equivalent of around 11 of all the pipeline gas used by the bloc in 2022. A large proportion is coming through Ukraine, and with the current Russia-Ukraine transit agreement unlikely to be renewed after it expires in 2024, this supply route is in jeopardy.

As part of the pivot away from Russia, the EU managed to reduce gas consumption by 13 percent in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency (against a target of 15 percent). In the months ahead, war-weary EU states may not do so well on this front.

It will not help that prices have fallen, nor that some states didn’t pull their weight last winter. Only 14 out of 27 EU members introduced mandatory energy reduction policies, while eastern states like Poland, Romania and Bulgaria did little to reduce consumption. Should there be a physical shortage of gas in continental Europe this winter, this might undermine calls for solidarity.

What comes next

The harsh reality is that for at least another two or three winters, Europe will have to hope for mild weather across the northern hemisphere without major interruptions to global LNG supply if it is to avoid significant gas price spikes.

Even as things stand, European gas prices remain around 50 percent above their pre-invasion long-run average, which is hurting both households and businesses. This is particularly important for Germany, the EU’s industrial powerhouse, with its energy-intensive automotive and chemical industries. There are growing concerns that continued high energy prices could promote de-industralisaton as energy-intensive industries move elsewhere.

The good news is that pressure on gas should at least subside from the mid-2020s. Significant new supplies of LNG will come online in the US and Qatar and the market will re-balance. European gas demand should also get significantly lower – down 40 percent by 2030, according to the energy reduction plan.

There is even talk of a supply glut by the end of the decade, depending on renewable energy deployment accelerating in Europe, and a new generation of nuclear power stations coming on stream. This would significantly reduce Europe’s need to import gas for good, but will only happen if the bloc coordinates effectively.

We saw what can be achieved in the months after the invasion when France supplied gas to Germany to help reduce its dependence on Russia, then Germany later supplied more electricity to French cities to help with outages caused by nuclear reactor maintenance.

The challenge is to take the same approach to decarbonisation.

While France tries to gather support for nuclear modernisation both at home and elsewhere in Europe, it is facing opposition from the likes of the German-led “Friends of Renewals” group, which advocates building out only renewable energy. Divisions like these may prove a serious obstacle in achieving a more rapid energy transformation away from fossil fuels.

So while Europe has managed to pivot away from Russia’s pipeline gas, it will remain exposed to the volatility of global gas markets unless it reduces its gas demand significantly in the coming years.

Michael Bradshaw is Professor of Global Energy at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, in the UK. This article first appeared in The Conversation – find it here.

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