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GERMANY AND UKRAINE

Zelensky calls Germany ‘true friend’ as Ukraine readies riposte

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday called Germany a "true friend" in his country's battle against Russia, as Berlin pledged unwavering support for Kyiv ahead of a widely expected counter-offensive.

Published: 14 May 2023 14:05 CEST

Zelensky calls Germany 'true friend' as Ukraine readies riposte

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (R) and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky shake hands at the end of a joint press conference following their meeting on May 14, 2023 at the Chancellery in Berlin. Photo: John MACDOUGALL/AFP.

Berlin unveiled a new military package for Kyiv worth 2.7 billion euros ($3 billion), its biggest yet for Ukraine, just before Zelensky’s first visit to Germany since Russia’s invasion.

“In the most challenging time in the modern history of Ukraine, Germany proved to be our true friend and reliable ally, which stands decisively side-by-side with the Ukrainian people in the struggle to defend freedom and democratic values,” Zelensky wrote in the guestbook at the German president’s official residence.

He also thanked Chancellor Olaf Scholz for Germany’s “powerful support” in the form of the armaments package, saying “everything in this security package will significantly strengthen our defence”.

“Now is the time for us to determine the end of this war this year. This year, we can make the aggressor’s defeat irreversible,” he said.

Ukrainian forces have been training troops and stockpiling Western-supplied munitions and hardware that analysts say will be key to reclaiming territory captured by Russia.

Once accused of reticence in supplying military gear to Ukraine, Germany has since become the second-biggest contributor of tanks, rockets and anti-missile systems to the country, after the United States.

Scholz on Sunday reiterated Berlin’s firm backing, telling Zelensky directly: “We will support you for as long as it is necessary.”

Zelensky said he would urge Scholz to support Ukraine’s bid for fighter jet deliveries, though he did not specify if he was seeking aircraft directly from Germany.

Together with Scholz, Zelensky will head later Sunday to the western German city of Aachen, which this year is awarding him and the Ukrainian people the Charlemagne prize — an honour awarded for efforts to foster European unity.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki are also due to attend the ceremony in Aachen — giving Zelensky the opportunity for direct talks ahead of an EU summit in Reykjavik on Tuesday, followed by the G7 gathering of world leaders in Hiroshima, Japan.

‘Historical shame’

Zelensky’s visit to Germany followed talks in Rome on Saturday with Pope Francis and Italian leaders, and rounds off over a year of choppy relations with Berlin.

Early on in the conflict, Kyiv had accused Germany of being too accommodating to Russian President Vladimir Putin, while Berlin’s reliance on Russian energy had proved tricky.

Kyiv had also snubbed a visit by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier in the weeks following the invasion, which in turn delayed Scholz’s first trip to the war-torn country.

Both Steinmeier and Scholz have since visited Ukraine.

In a clear show of its backing for Kyiv, Berlin on Saturday said it would send Ukraine more firing units and launchers for the Iris-T anti-missile system, 30 additional Leopard 1 tanks, more than 100 armoured combat vehicles and over 200 surveillance drones.

Mykhaylo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, hailed the announcement, saying it indicated that Russia was “bound to lose and sit on the bench of historical shame”.

As Kyiv prepares its offensive to retake ground in the eastern Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as well as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in the south, Germany’s continued military backing will likely prove vital.

High-tech German-made Leopard 2A6 tanks sought by Kyiv have already been put to use at the frontlines, and the medium-range Iris-T missile defence system from Germany is also helping to bolster Ukraine’s protection against Russian strikes.

‘Inaction’

On the front line, Russia said Sunday that two of its military commanders had been killed in combat near the flashpoint town of Bakhmut.

In a rare announcement of losses on the battlefield, the Russian defence ministry said in a statement that the commander of the 4th motorised rifle brigade, Vyacheslav Makarov, and Yevgeny Brovko, deputy commander of the Army Corps for military-political work, had been killed in fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The head of Russia’s private Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin again accused the Russian army of inaction around Bakhmut.

In a post published by his press service, Prigozhin said the “airborne forces” of not backing his men as claimed by the defence ministry.

“I didn’t see them… I don’t know where they are and who they are helping” he charged.

Elsewhere, Moscow said Russian forces had struck Western arm depots and Ukrainian troops in the western city of Ternopil and the eastern town of Petropavlivka.

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OPINION: Germany's timid strategy risks both Ukraine’s defeat and more war in Europe

Two years ago, just before Russia started firing its missiles into Kyiv itself, nearly three quarters of Germans surveyed in one poll opposed sending weapons to Ukraine. Now, in 2024 – not only has public opinion shifted, but Germany is now Ukraine’s second-largest donor of military support in absolute terms.

Yet, it’s still not enough.

EXPLAINED: Are Germans really that pacifist anymore?

That’s because Chancellor Olaf Scholz has regularly had to be dragged into providing key support for Ukraine, preventing Kyiv from getting decisive help quickly – when it needs it. Scholz has yet to explicitly say that Ukraine should win the war with Russia. He has cautioned Germany about the danger of a Russian victory – but this is different from saying Ukraine should win.

That’s left Berlin-based security experts to reason that the outcome Scholz prefers is a stalemate – where neither side wins and some negotiated settlement theoretically de-escalates tensions with Russia while forcing Ukraine to accept territorial losses.

But stalemate with Russia never lasts. The Minsk Agreement was supposed to freeze the Russo-Ukrainian War that’s been going on in Crimea and the Russia-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine since 2014 in place. But Russia violated it by trying to invade the entire country. The history of Russia’s aggression against its neighbours, whether Ukraine since 2014, Georgia in 2008, or Moldova – shows us that Putin’s Russia has an insatiable imperialist drive to expand its borders through force.

FILE PHOTO: Soldiers sit on a tank at a training site where Ukrainian soldiers undergo maintenance training on Leopard 1A5 tanks at the German army Bundeswehr base. Photo; Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters/Ritzau Scanpix

What’s more is that Scholz’s dithering over the last two years has made Ukrainian defeat – rather than stalemate – a real possibility. Last year’s decision to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine was achieved only after concerted pressure from backbench parliamentarians and from the US. Although Scholz would finally relent and send them, it took months – robbing the Ukrainians of valuable time to make gains on the battlefield.

This year, the Chancellor continues to refuse to send Taurus cruise missiles – which would allow Ukraine to hit Russian supply lines that they’re not able to hit yet with the equipment they have. The debate has dragged on for months. Two parliamentary motions from the opposition CDU calling on Scholz to deliver Taurus have failed. Parliamentarians from his own coalition then drew up their own, but members of the Chancellor’s Social Democrats effectively sabotaged it by taking out any mention of the word “Taurus”.

Meanwhile, Iran is now preparing to send Russia long-range cruise missiles of its own – which the Ukrainians won’t have. As Ukraine runs dangerously low on ammunition, the Russians are outfiring the Ukrainians by a ratio of around 5-1. Still, despite two years to get its act together, European countries, including Germany, still haven’t made appreciable efforts to up their ammunition stocks.

In the meantime, a plurality of ordinary Germans surveyed in a recent Yougov poll think the government isn’t doing enough to ensure that Ukraine win, with 44 percent saying too little it being done, compared to 26 person who say the government is doing enough or too much.

ZEITENWENDE: How war in Ukraine has marked a historic shift in Germany

So if both the public and members of his own coalition want more done, why isn’t Scholz acting?

Scholz’ nervousness a problem

The Chancellor hasn’t answered this question directly, but security experts point to his nervousness that any additional weapon he sends could result in escalation by Russia – including by attacking Germany.

Yet escalation is already happening. No one expects Russia to be ordering long-range cruise missiles from Iran that it doesn’t intend to use – but Scholz still won’t deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine to match the Russian arsenal.

This file picture from 2017 shows a Taurus long-range air-to-surface missile during a media day presentation in Pyeongtaek, South Korea

This file picture from 2017 shows a Taurus long-range air-to-surface missile during a media day presentation in Pyeongtaek, South Korea. Ukraine has requested similar weapons from Germany, but Germany has yet to deliver them. Photo: JUNG Yeon-Je / AFP

Furthermore, self-congratulation in Germany about finally hitting NATO’s defence spending target of two percent of GDP is likely to be short-lived if Kyiv falls. Putin could well be emboldened to test the NATO military alliance of which Germany is part by attacking an actual NATO member – something he’s not yet done militarily.

That would likely lead to Germany having to spend even more on defence. Already, some parliamentarians say the current special fund of €100 billion to modernise the German army simply won’t be enough.

PODCAST: Why Germany is getting ‘war ready’ and the growing citizenship application backlog

“We have to do more for Ukraine and we have to do more for our own security,” Anton Hofreiter, Chair of the Bundestag’s European Affairs Committee, told journalists at a press event this week at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

“For all of this, we need a lot of money. So, we have to put at least €100 billion more into our army and ammunition. I think we should have a European fund of around €100 billion to buy – now – from all over the world, ammunition and weapons for Ukraine. And then I think we should have another €100 billion to make our infrastructure secure. I think that is really needed fast, because the Russian army is preparing to test NATO.”

.@ToniHofreiter, EU Committee Chair @Bundestag, suggests a 🇪🇺 €100bn fund "to buy #ammunition & #weapons for #Ukraine all over the world," €100bn to "make our #infrastructure secure" & 100bn more for 🇩🇪 defence – as Russia's will likely test @WeLoveNATO 2/8 pic.twitter.com/tipvxgNDuy

— Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦 (@bctallis) February 21, 2024

Ultimately, as frontline Baltic state politicians have warned for years, Putin is emboldened by weakness and will push forward with his imperial ambitions until he is stopped. He doesn’t care about Scholz’s escalation fears. To him, such fear is weakness and an invitation to escalate. Perversely, German fears of escalation end up risking Russian escalation – the very situation Scholz seems so desperate to avoid by not giving Ukraine what it needs to win.

“Continuous western support to Ukraine until victory. This is the only language autocrats understand. They constantly calculate our response against potential gains,” says Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. “If we won’t stop them in Ukraine, sooner or later, we will not escape a direct fight and we will pay a much higher price.”

Not too late to act

It’s not too late though. There is still time to stop Putin in Ukraine – but it will require western countries, including Germany, to take much more decisive measures – something some members of the Bundestag are already calling for.

“President Zelensky has made clear what Ukraine needs most – ammunition, ammunition, ammunition and long-range cruise missiles,” said Dr. Sebastian Schäfer, spokesperson for the Greens on the Bundestag’s Budget Committee and Deputy Chair of the Bundestag’s Committee for the Special Fund for the Bundeswehr – at the DGAP press event Monday.

“We need to do everything we can do to finally stop the Russian war machine. We must fully enforce the sanctions and frozen Russian assets in their entirety must serve the liberation and reconstruction of Ukraine,” he said.

"We must fully enforce the #sanctions and [seize] frozen Russian assets in their entirety to serve the *liberation* & reconstruction of #Ukraine. #MakeRussiaPay,”
Said @sebastian_es_ Budget Committee Spokesperson @GrueneBundestag.@OlenaHalushka @HopkoHanna 6/8 pic.twitter.com/JFZW3gT1Yx

— Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦 (@bctallis) February 21, 2024

“Putin is constantly challenging us,” said Hildegard Bentele, Member of the European Parliament with the European People’s Party, at the DGAP press event. “I think we really need to show that we’re in crisis mode.”

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