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German trade surplus shrinks amid Ukraine war and energy crisis

Germany's much-vaunted trade surplus shrank in 2022, official data showed Thursday, as soaring energy prices in the wake of the Ukraine war pushed up the cost of imports.

Published: 2 February 2023 11:09 CET

Cargo ships in Lubmin

Cargo ships in the harbour in Lubmin, Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Stefan Sauer

Germany exported goods to the value of €1.56 trillion, up 14 percent on a year earlier, federal statistics agency Destatis said in seasonally adjusted figures.

But imports rose by more than 24 percent to €1.48 trillion, resulting in a trade surplus of €76 billion.

Destatis said it was “the lowest surplus” since 2000 and down by more than half compared with last year’s €173.3 billion figure.

The bill for imports rose much more strongly “on account of the sharply increased prices of energy” following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the agency said.

READ ALSO: Why fears of a recession in Germany are rising

It is the fifth consecutive year that the trade surplus has narrowed in Europe’s biggest economy, it added.

The United States remained the top destination for “made in Germany goods”, while China was once again the largest source of imports.

The shrinking surplus in export champion Germany comes at a time of growing concern about the competitiveness of European companies in the face of US plans for a major subsidy package to green its economy.

The European Union is working on proposals to counter the threat, including a possible relaxation of state aid rules.

Germany’s BDI industry association on Thursday called for “swift, concrete results” on the issue.

It also urged the government to pursue EU-level trade agreements with “important partners” such as Latin American countries, India or Indonesia to diversify trade ties.

“The aim must be to drive forward the internationalisation of the German economy,” it said.

READ ALSO: Germany sees record post-war inflation in 2022

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How high interest rates are hampering homeowners' dreams in Germany

Valeriy Shevchenko felt like he made the purchase of his lifetime when he beat a queue of prospective buyers to secure a two-bedroom apartment in one of Berlin’s most popular districts.

Two years on, the 33-year-old’s housing dreams have come crashing down after the developer of his new home, Project Immobilien, went bankrupt.

Hit by a sudden jump in interest rates and raw material costs, twice as many developers have filed for insolvency over the last year than during the previous 12 months.

Like hundreds of homeowners-to-be across the country, Shevchenko found construction of his new home suddenly halted, as workers cleared out of the site where the concrete skeleton of the building stands with no windows.

READ ALSO: Germany sees record drop in property prices

“From the middle of August, the construction was frozen. The cabinets for the workers here, the crane in the middle, everything moved away,” said Shevchenko at the site, shellshocked by the setback.

With such scenes multiplying across the country, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government on Monday offered a new package of measures to help ease the pressure on builders and homebuyers.

They include a pledge to not toughen up energy standards that could prove costly for developers, while extending mortgage help to families and financing for renovation.

The construction sector voiced satisfaction with the package, with Tim-Oliver Müller, president of German building lobby group HDB, saying that the measures were “more comprehensive than expected”.

‘All my savings’

For years, record low interest rates and strong demand had spurred new projects and investment in Germany’s property market.

But a sharp rise in consumer prices as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced the European Central Bank to aggressively raise interest rates to curb inflation, drastically pushing up mortgage costs and in turn bringing down property prices as well as profit margins of building projects.

Builders are also suffering from higher raw material costs, a problem that had already begun during the pandemic but which has been accentuated by the Ukraine war.

A construction worker works on the new construction of an apartment building in the new development area of Hanover-Kronsrode. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Demy Becker

“Investors no longer know how to make certain projects profitable,” said Müller.

In a sign of the crisis, developer giant Vonovia recently decided to put 60,000 projects on hold.

One in five property companies has reported cancelling building projects in August, while 11.9 percent face financing difficulties, according to a recent survey by economic research institute Ifo, which described the figures as unprecedented in 30 years.

READ ALSO: Why does Germany keep missing its house-building targets?

Many of the halted projects are also well advanced, pushing buyers into dire financial straits.

In Berlin, investors of the Project Immobilien’s construction had already paid half of what is due.

“I’m not a rich person. My money is the fruit of my labour,” said Shevchenko, who had already paid up €250,000 for the apartment he bought for half a million euros.

Valeriy Shevchenko of Russia poses in front of the site of the unfinished “Malmoerstrasse 28” residential housing project on September 18th, 2023. Photo: JOHN MACDOUGALL / AFP

With no insurance purchased by the building company or the future homeowners, there is no financial protection against the sudden bankruptcy.

Their only hope now is to find someone else to take over the construction, or to finish it themselves.

“I never thought that something like that could happen in Germany,” said Marina Prakharchuk, 39, with tears in her eyes.

The Belarusian had paid up €175,000 for her 45-metre square apartment.

“All my savings are in there,” said the employee of a logistics company.

Housing shortage

Beyond the investors left roofless by insolvent developers, the property crisis risks spiralling into a giant social crisis as the knock-on effects from the building slowdown crash into the rental market.

Scholz’s government had promised to build 400,000 homes a year to alleviate an endemic housing shortage made worse by burgeoning demand from an inflow of refugees and foreign workers.

But building permits have nose-dived 25 percent between January and June compared to a year ago.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: What is Germany doing to solve its housing crisis?

Experts believe the sector will struggle to even hit 250,000 in new build approvals this year, while next year bodes no better with a forecast of under 200,000.

With fewer new housing stock coming on the market, rents are rising unabated, further eroding households’ purchasing power.

“More affordable housing must be built in Germany so that young families and those who are looking for apartments can have a good chance of finding one,” said Scholz, after the crisis talks.

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