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PROPERTY

MORTGAGE Q&A: Your questions on Swedish interest rates answered

In the second part of our property Q&A, we answer reader questions on when interest rates will start going down, as well as how and when to negotiate rates with your bank.

MORTGAGE Q&A: Your questions on Swedish interest rates answered
Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/TT

In a post on Facebook, we asked The Local’s readers to submit their questions on property. Here’s the first part of that article, where we discuss questions like whether it’s better to buy or rent, whether to buy a house or apartment, and if house prices have stabilised.

In this article, we answer questions to do with interest rates and mortgages.

When will interest rates start going down?

Sweden’s interest rates currently stand at 2.5 percent, with the next key interest rate meeting (where the Riksbank will decide whether to alter interest rates or not) scheduled for February 9th. 

These meetings take place roughly two months, with further meetings scheduled for April 26th, June 29th, September 20th and November 22nd this year.

Most analysts expect the bank to increase the policy rate by 0.50 points at this meeting. Handelsbanken’s chief economist Christina Nyman told the TT newswire that she expects another rate increase in April to 3.25 percent, after which rates will stay at that level for some time.

Nordea’s economists have the same prognosis, while experts at Swedbank expect a further increase in June to a peak of 3.5 percent.

Danske Bank predicts that the Riksbank will raise rates by 0.5 percentage points in February to 3 percent total, with a possible second hike of 0.25 percent predicted for April, depending on inflation in the first quarter of 2023.

In terms of drops in the interest rate, it predicts that rates will remain high throughout 2023, with the Riksbank waiting until 2024 to lower the rate by a total of 1 percentage point.

What is the new normal for interest rates going to be?

As above, we can expect rates to rise and remain high throughout this year, dropping to around 2.25 percent in 2024, if Danske Bank’s predictions are correct.

This is slightly lower than the current level of 2.5 percent, so it looks like we can expect things to get worse for at least a year, after which rates will be slightly lower than they are currently.

Essentially, don’t expect rates to drop to the same low or even negative levels they have been in recent years any time soon.

How do you negotiate interest rates with the bank?

The first time you negotiate your interest rates will be when you buy your property. You might be keen to get a deal sorted as quickly as possible so you know your purchase has been finalised, but negotiating a good rate is important as it can literally save you thousands – or even tens of thousands – of kronor over the course of a year.

Firstly, do your research. This includes using price comparison tools such as Compricer or Konsumenternas, but also looking at individual websites of mortgage providers and comparing interest rates there.

Make sure you look at both listräntor (the advertised interest rates) and snitträntor (the average rates people were actually given in recent months) to get an idea of what you should be paying, and remember, the listränta is a starting point for negotiations rather than a fixed offer.

Check if your bank offers any discounts for moving your pension over or opening an account with them, or rewards for energy-efficient properties, for example.

Many banks have a calculator on their website allowing you to use a sliding scale to alter the size of your deposit and see how that affects your interest rate, so make sure to have a look to see if you can get any discounts there, too. Some banks will offer you a discount if your belåningsgrad (the size of your loan compared to your deposit) is lower, so consider buying a slightly cheaper property or putting in more cash, if you can.

Here’s our article on how to get the best rate on your mortgage for more advice.

When should I renegotiate?

In general, you should consider renegotiating your interest rate when your fixed-term rate expires (variable rates are technically fixed for three months, so this applies to all types of mortgage). You may be able to get a better deal if you qualify for any new discounts or if your circumstances have changed for any other reason, such as if you’ve paid off enough of your loan that your belåningsgrad is significantly lower than when you applied.

If you renegotiate your interest rate before your fixed-term rate has expired, you will be charged ränteskillnadsersättning (literally: “interest difference compensation”) to compensate the bank for the loss of income between the point at which you renegotiate your loan and the point your current rate was due to expire, so you may not be any better off financially than if you’d just kept paying the same rate of interest.

If you have a variable rate, however, you won’t be charged ränteskillnadsersättning for renegotiating your loan before the date your current interest rate is due to expire.

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PROPERTY

Should you buy a home in Sweden this summer?

Considering the fickle trends in the Swedish housing market, prospective homebuyers might find themselves at a crossroads this summer.

Should you buy a home in Sweden this summer?

After a period of falling prices driven by increased interest rates, the Swedish housing market is seeing a rebound, particularly in the biggest cities.

However, it’s also taking longer to finalise home sales.

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Recent data from Swedish property listings site Hemnet indicates that while home sales – and housing prices – are on the rise, the time to complete transactions has notably increased.

For instance, the average sale time for an apartment in Sweden increased to 27 days in the first half of the year, up from 22 days during the same period last year. Similarly, houses now take an average of 31 days to sell, compared to 30 days previously.

The slowest market is in the Gävleborg region, where it takes an average of 44 days to sell a home. The fastest transactions occur in Stockholm, with apartments selling in just 16 days and detached homes in 23 days.

This variation in market activity across the country calls for a deeper look into where the best opportunities might lie for homebuyers this summer.

Renewed market confidence in Sweden’s biggest cities

The confidence in the Swedish property market is on its way up in Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö, Erik Holmberg, a market analyst at Hemnet, told The Local.

“I would say that we have seen a weaker market in the last couple of years, almost everywhere in the country, since the Swedish central bank started to increase the interest policy rate, which affected the market a lot,” he said.

“But in the last half of the year or rather in the last year, the confidence has come back in bigger cities – in Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö… When we look at price developments last year, in three of Sweden’s biggest cities, we see prices increasing again.”

However, the analyst warned that the opposite is currently true in other areas of the country, which have seen a continued decrease in market activity and flatter developments in the same time interval.

A new trend emerging in Stockholm?

As Hemnet’s analyst explained, in Sweden, housing market trends usually start in Stockholm, when the market begins to change, causing a ripple effect.

“And that’s what we have seen. Now, market activity and prices are increasing again in the bigger cities. Usually, when the market changes, other areas in the country follow, and that could be the case now,” said Holmberg.

“When the rates and inflation situation become clearer, other parts of the country might follow the market in the big cities. Our main scenario is that we will see this spread,” he said, adding that prices in Stockholm have picked up quite fast in the last year but that the demand is still affected by the high interest rates.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw swift price developments in some areas with the highest demand, such as city centres.”

The effect on the rental market

Another aspect to consider is the rental market, which could see significant changes in the short to mid-term.

Holmberg pointed out that properties which fail to sell might enter the rental market.

“What we’ve seen is that it’s harder to sell properties today, so, probably, more people who own homes and can’t sell them will put these unsold homes on the market for a while. This could affect the supply of apartments for rent and, in turn, prices,” the analyst said.

INTERVIEW:

What different types of homebuyers should know

For buyers, the current market presents a mixed bag.

“In Sweden, we often talk of having a seller’s or buyer’s market. Today, it’s good for buyers that they have a lot to choose from; there’s a record-high supply almost everywhere in the country. That means it’s easy to find something,” said Holmberg.

However, he also cautioned that the slow market makes agreeing on terms with sellers challenging, with sales times at record highs.

“Sales take some time in today’s market, and that’s important to understand for both sellers and buyers, especially for homeowners who are changing homes, meaning they’re both buying and selling something; it’s a tough market for them.

“Today, this group often chooses to sell their home before they buy something new. That makes up a big part of record high sales times; we have people waiting for the right bid before moving from the selling to the buying side…” Holmberg said, noting that the market is different compared to two to three years ago when it was “very hot”.

“So, remember that even if prices grow, it’s still a tough or slow market.”

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On the other hand, first-time buyers might find a silver lining in the form of lower prices compared to a couple of years ago, making it a potentially favourable time to enter the Swedish housing market.

“First-time buyers are in another situation, which may be better because the prices are lower than two years ago, of course, and if you’re just buying something, you don’t need to worry about the selling part,” Holmberg told The Local.

“That’s why this could be a good situation to enter the housing market this summer, but even so, despite supply being really high, it could still be tough because many sellers have put down a listed price but don’t necessarily plan to sell at this price.”

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