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Next week’s forecast: Snow and sub-zero temperatures expected in almost all of Sweden

Next week will likely be both white and cold in almost all of Sweden.

Published: 3 December 2022 11:12 CET

Stockholm

In a number of places in Sweden, temperatures are expected to be just around ten degrees below zero. Photo by Jon Flobrant / Unsplash

“We can expect sub-zero temperatures across most of the country,” Therese Fougman at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) stated.

After a period of milder weather, a white winter seems to be on its way. According to the SMHI, residents in most parts of the country can expect both snowfall and freezing temperatures during the next week.

Snowfall

Generally speaking, snowfall is expected during the middle of the week.

“It will probably be a few centimetres (of snow). It probably won’t snow everywhere, but large parts of Norrland look set to get some of it, as well as Svealand and Götaland. It may actually snow all the way down towards Skåne and southern Halland,” Fougman said.

“The forecast I have now extends until the Monday before Lucia. According to it, it looks like the snow will be here to stay. But what will actually happen remains to be seen,” she added.

Sub-zero temperatures

In a number of places in Sweden, such as Dalarna, temperatures are expected to be just around ten degrees below zero.

“It looks like there could be a bit of a weather change now, with temperatures below normal next week,” Fougman warned.

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IN MAPS: How big is the current wildfire risk in Sweden?

How dry are Sweden’s forests?

On May 23rd, large areas south of Gävle were rated as “dry” in the map below, prepared by Sweden’s state-run surveyor Lantmäteriet for the state meteorologist SMHI and the Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB).

The map, captured just before noon on May 23rd, shows the bränsleuttorkning, or fuel dryness, an estimate of how much dry, burnable leaves and branches are on forest floors in Sweden.

The colour code ranges from dark blue (very wet) to red (extremely dry). The dryest areas on this map, in orange, are listed as 4 on a six point scale (dry). Yellow areas are listed as 3 (moderately wet).

You can find an interactive version of the map here.

The assessment of the amount of dry wood in Sweden’s forests on May 23rd. Graphic: Lantmäteriet/SMHI

The surveyor also prepares a second map for SMHI and MSB showing the risk of forest fire assessed using the FWI (Fire Weather Index), an index created in Canada which combines measures of air humidity, temperature, 24-hour precipitation and wind speed.

This shows that a lot of areas are already at an “extremely high risk of a forest fire” (red), a “very high risk” (dark orange) or “at risk” (orange).

The Fire Weather Index map for Sweden on May 23rd. Graphic: Lantmäteriet

There is also a large or very large risk of grass fires on May 23rd in the north of Sweden, particularly north of Umeå and along the border with Norway. The green areas are where the grass fire season has already ended. Yellow areas have a “moderate risk”, light orange have a “high risk” and dark orange have a “very high risk” of grass fires. Light grey areas, which are mainly in mountain regions, are still covered in snow.

Grass fire risk for the afternoon of May 23rd. Graphic: Lantmäteriet

What measures are in place in Sweden?

Many municipalities in Skåne, Blekinge and Småland have already put fire bans in place, preventing people from lighting fires or barbecues outside.

A map by Krisinformation.se (an official website which publishes emergency information from Swedish authorities), which can be found in English, shows which parts of Sweden have a fire ban in place, but it doesn’t go into specifics.

Below are the municipalities with fire bans in place on May 23rd – be aware that this may change, and always make sure to check Krisinformation.se’s website for the most up to date information before planning a barbecue or similar.

To find out exactly what applies in your area, click on your municipality on the map on Krisinformation.se’s website and then “more info”.

The link will take you to the homepage of whoever issued the fire ban, but it usually doesn’t take you directly to an explanation of what fire rules currently apply there, so you have to do a bit of digging.

Most municipalities and county administrative boards publish current fire bans quite prominently on their websites, though, sometimes as a banner at the top.

Some publish the information in English, but that’s far from always the case, so if you don’t speak Swedish you may have to run the text through a translation tool.

What other precautions can you take to avoid the risks?

Bear in mind that even if you do comply with local fire rules to the letter, you are always responsible for what happens to any fire you light, so you need to take proper precautions and be confident that there’s no risk of it spreading.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED – What do Sweden’s fire bans mean?

Make sure the grill is set up on a flat surface away from any grass, trees, sheds or anything else that could catch fire easily. Keep a bucket of water nearby, never leave the fire unattended, and make sure it’s completely extinguished before you leave.

It’s worth also consulting weather agency SMHI’s map of the risk of wildfires, which is separate from the map of fire bans. If you live in an area where there’s currently a high risk of wildfires, be extra careful before lighting a fire, even if there aren’t any official bans in place.

You could also download the Swedish Civil Contingencies’ free app Brandrisk ute (“Fire Danger Outdoors”), which will give you up-to-date information in English on the risk of wildfires in your area. It’s available both for iPhone and Android.

Is there a risk of water shortages?

In many parts of the northernmost half of the country, the opposite is the case – ground water levels in small watercourses across much of Sweden north of Gävle are high or unusually high compared to the average level in 1961 to 2023 (light green, green and dark green in map below). In central Sweden, they are high or relatively high, while they are at normal levels in the south, apart from the border between Halland and Småland, where they are relatively low.

Ground water levels in small watercourses are currently high or very high compared to the average level in 1961 to 2023 (light green, green and dark green in map to the left) in most of northern Sweden, at about normal levels (light blue) across most of central Sweden, and low in the south of Västra Götaland, Halland, Småland, parts of Blekinge and Skane.

Groundwater levels in Sweden on May 21st, 2024, compared to the average for the period 1961-2023. Graphic: Geological Survey of Sweden

Comparing groundwater water levels to the same week in 1961 to 2023, it’s normal (green on the map below) above normal (light blue) or far above normal (dark blue) across the vast majority of the country, apart from a pocket in Småland, where it is below normal (yellow) or far below normal (red), so it doesn’t look like there is currently a risk of drought or water shortages.

Water levels in small watercourses on May 21st, 2024 compared with the same week in 1961-2023. Graphic: Geological Survey of Sweden

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