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POLITICS

How Spain’s PM Pedro Sánchez is set to become ‘King of the Socialists’

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will on Friday become president of an international socialist grouping encompassing 132 countries, a potential springboard to a major post on the world stage.

How Spain's PM Pedro Sánchez is set to become 'King of the Socialists'
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez speaks during NATO Parliamentary Assembly annual session in Madrid on November 21, 2022. (Photo by OSCAR DEL POZO / AFP)

A year before a general election in Spain, which polls suggest he will struggle to win, Sánchez is the only candidate to head the Socialist International (SI) — an umbrella group of 132 centre-left parties from around the world.

The telegenic 50-year-old will take over the reins of the SI, which is gathering in Madrid this weekend, from former Greek prime minister George Papandreou.

“While symbolic… this post could be a way (for Sánchez) to regain credit among voters by presenting himself as influential on the world stage,” said Pablo Simón, political science professor at the Carlos III University.

“But it also could be that he plans on capitalising on this network of international contacts” which the post offers to “play a prominent role later” in a top global body, he added.

Former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Guterres led the International Socialist before he went on to head the United Nations refugee agency in 2005 and then become UN secretary general in 2017.

“All prime ministers who love foreign affairs have a tendency to look for an international post to secure a post-governmental career,” said Teneo Intelligence analyst Antonio Barroso.

‘More weight’

Sánchez has made international affairs a priority since he came to power in June 2018, in contrast to his conservative predecessor Mariano Rajoy, and has sought to boost Spain’s influence in the European Union.

Within days of taking office, Sánchez made international headlines by agreeing to take in migrants from the Aquarius rescue ship who were rejected by other European nations.

The first modern Spanish premier to speak English fluently, Sánchez served as chief of staff to the UN high representative to Bosnia during the Kosovo conflict.

He has fostered good relations with France and Germany, which has made Spain “one of the engines of European politics”, said Simon, citing as an example Madrid’s lead in talks over the energy crisis sparked by the war in Ukraine.

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife Maria Begoña Gómez Fernández arrive for the welcoming dinner during the G20 Summit in Badung on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on November 15th, 2022. (Photo by WILLY KURNIAWAN / POOL / AFP)

Sánchez successfully lobbied to have his foreign minister, Josep Borrell, appointed as European Union foreign policy chief in 2019.

“Spain has much more weight in the European Union debate than 10 years ago,” said Barroso, adding the premier had “boosted Spain’s credibility” with its “European partners”.

Beyond the EU, Sánchez hosted a crucial NATO summit in Madrid in June, just four months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and has “reconnected” with Latin America, which has shifted to the left in recent years, said Simon,

Sánchez visited four Latin American countries in August 2018, his first official trip outside Europe, in what was seen as an effort to underscore the region as a priority of his foreign policy.

With Biden and Macron

During the recent G20 summit in Indonesia, Sánchez posted a photo of himself meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden.

Seen as an attempt to burnish his credentials on international affairs, the photo was much mocked on social media.

But Ignacio Molina, a senior analyst at the Elcano Royal Institute think tank, said he believes Sánchez’s priority is to remain Spanish prime minister after the general election, which is expected at the end of 2023.

The speculation about a possible senior role for Sánchez at a global body comes from Spain’s opposition parties, which have “spread the idea that he uses international meetings to prepare his future in case of an electoral defeat next year”, Molina said.

“I don’t think he’s deliberately developing an international network for personal reasons. It’s more because he’s at ease in European politics, where he faces less opposition.”

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POLITICS

What happens and who takes over if Spain’s Prime Minister resigns?

Pedro Sánchez will soon announce whether he’ll step down as Spanish PM amid a corruption probe involving his wife. What happens if he resigns? Who would be Spain’s next Prime Minister? And would there be new elections? 

What happens and who takes over if Spain's Prime Minister resigns?

Sánchez has decided to take a break from his agenda until Monday April 29th to reflect on his continuity in office after a Madrid court “opened an investigation into Begoña Gómez (Sánchez’s wife) for the alleged offence of influence peddling and corruption”.

This came in response to a complaint by Manos Limpias (Clean Hands), an anti-corruption pressure group whose leader is linked to the far right.

“I need to stop and think” in order to decide “whether I should continue to head the government or whether I should give up this honour,” Sánchez wrote in a letter posted on X, formerly Twitter.

READ MORE: Spain’s PM may quit over wife’s corruption probe

The 52-year-old leader stressed he has no “attachment to the position” of PM and that he needs to assess whether it is worth staying in the premiership, alleging a smear campaign, or “strategy of harassment and demolition”, against him and his wife Begoña Gómez.

So what happens if on April 29th Pedro Sánchez announces he’s stepping down as Prime Minister of Spain?

What happens next if Sánchez quits?

Article 101 of the Spanish Constitution covers scenarios such as the resignation or death of the Prime Minister, as well as motions of no confidence.

The resignation of el Presidente del Gobierno would mean that the entire Cabinet or Council of Ministers would continue in office until a new PM was appointed.

However, the ruling left-wing coalition government would be limited in its powers, without the capacity to legislate.

Who would be Spain’s next Prime Minister and who chooses him/her?

Even though Spain has three Deputy Prime Ministers (María Jesús Montero, Yolanda Díaz and Teresa Ribera), none of them would automatically become Prime Minister if Sánchez resigned.  

The Spanish Parliament (El Congreso) would be in charge of electing the new Prime Minister in a process identical to that of the investitures held after a general election (which Sánchez used to reach power in 2023).

First, King Felipe VI would hold a round of consultations with the spokespersons of Spain’s political parties represented in the Lower House, and after listening to their arguments, he would designate a candidate.

Then, the candidate designated by the Spanish king to succeed Pedro Sánchez would undergo an investiture debate and to be elected he or she would have to receive the support of the absolute majority of the Parliament in the first vote or more yeses than noes in the second.

sanchez resignation spain

There is no automatic successor to Pedro Sánchez if he decides to resign as Spain’s Prime Minister. (Photo by ANDER GILLENEA / AFP)

As an example of this happening, in 1981 Spain’s first democratically elected PM Adolfo Suárez resigned. His party, UCD, proposed Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo as his successor, and after an investiture debate, interrupted in its voting by the attempted coup d’état of 23F, he was elected Spain’s next Prime Minister by the Spanish Parliament.

If the candidate fails to be invested, a period of two months would begin in which new candidates proposed by King Felipe could run for the premiership. 

If after these two months no candidate achieved parliamentary support, the Spanish courts would automatically be dissolved and a new general election would be called.

Can Pedro Sánchez call another general election straight after resigning?

According to article 115.3 of the Spanish Constitution, 365 days must pass between one general election and another. Therefore, Sánchez could not order the judicial dissolution and by default another general election yet. 

The earliest date for a hypothetical electoral call would be May 30th, exactly a year after the 2023 general elections were announced.

Fifty-four days must pass between the announcement of a new general election and Spaniards going to the polls, which would mean that in this hypothetical situation Spain’s sixth general election in nine years would take place in late July. 

Could Sánchez opt for another option other than resigning?

It’s unclear why Sánchez – a risk-taker whose political gambles have largely paid off – appears to have caved in this time to the ongoing discrediting campaigns from Spain’s right-wing opposition.

Let’s not forget the weeks of protests in 2023 and early 2024 outside the Socialists’ headquarters in numerous cities against the controversial amnesty law he supported, all of which called on Sánchez to resign.

Political commentators in the Spanish Parliament on Wednesday described Sánchez as “bruised” by the investigation into his wife Begoña Gómez’s alleged influence peddling and corruption. 

But if on Monday April 29th he does not announce that he will be staying in his post, does he have any other options other than resigning?

Sánchez could call a motion of confidence. This is a political tool available to Spanish Prime Ministers in order to confront a situation of weakness in the face of the Parliament that elected him.

Article 112 of the Spanish Constitution establishes that the Prime Minister, after deliberation by the Cabinet or Council of Ministers, may raise before the Parliament the motion of confidence. 

Confidence in his premiership will be granted when the simple majority of Spanish MPs vote in favour of it.

Could this be yet another political gamble by Sánchez? A way to silence detractors in an official manner?

On Wednesday, Sánchez did say that  “despite everything, I still believe in Spain’s justice system.”

If Sánchez did not obtain the confidence of Parliament, it would be the same as if he had resigned and the process to choose a new Prime Minister through an investiture would begin.

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