Scholz’s SPD was set to remain the largest force in the coastal state, taking around 32.5 to 33.5 percent of votes, according to exit polls by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF.

The conservative CDU party of former chancellor Angela Merkel came a distant second at 27.5 percent.

The election was seen as a key test for Scholz and his government’s handling of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, and comes after the SPD was soundly beaten by the CDU in the last two regional polls in North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein.

The Greens, Scholz’s coalition partners on the federal level, surged to around 14 percent on Sunday — their best-ever result in Lower Saxony and nearly double their score from five years ago.

The far-right AfD also had reason to cheer, climbing to around 12 percent as it capitalises on anger over the rising cost of living in Germany.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has sent prices for power soaring, pushing German inflation to a record-high of 10 percent in September and fuelling fears of a looming recession in Europe’s top economy.

The Lower Saxony election was “very important” for Scholz, political scientist Karl-Rudolf Korte told ZDF, calling it “a referendum on the government’s policy” as Germany grapples with several crises.

Lower Saxony’s popular premier Stephan Weil from the SPD, who is set to nab a third consecutive term, had called the election contest “the most difficult of my life”.

“Never have I seen so many question marks and worries on citizens’ faces,” he told WirtschaftsWoche magazine ahead of the vote.

Weil, 63, cast himself as a safe pair of hands in uncertain times and wants Lower Saxony — home to auto giant Volkswagen as well as most of Germany’s wind turbines — to play a leading role in the green energy transition.

He has ruled out a repeat coalition with the CDU and wants to team up with the Greens.