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Could Baltic Sea gas pipe leaks affect Denmark’s election timeline?

Four leaks have been detected after suspected sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines running from Russia to Europe. Could the leaks, which are in the Danish and Swedish economic zones, impact the timing of Denmark’s next general election?

Could Baltic Sea gas pipe leaks affect Denmark’s election timeline?
A Swedish Coast Guard photo showing the release of gas emanating from a leak on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Could the incident mean Denmark hesitates to call a general election? Photo: Handout/AFP/Ritzau Scanpix

Leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines near Danish island Bornholm in the Baltic Sea are due to “deliberate acts” and “not an accident”, Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday.

“The clear advice from the authorities is they were deliberate acts. We are not talking about an accident,” Danish prime minister Frederiksen told a press conference. “We don’t have information yet about those responsible.” 

But the situation in the Baltic Sea should not affect the likelihood of an early general election being called in Denmark, according to three different political parties.

The Social Liberal (Radikale Venstre) party earlier this year demanded Frederiksen call an early election. The demand was issued in response to the conclusions of an inquiry into the government’s 2020 mink scandal, which resulted in Frederiksen receiving a rebuke.

The Social Liberals have threatened to bring down the government through a vote of no confidence if an election is not called by October 4th.

Legally, the latest date on which a general election can be held is June 4th next year.

READ ALSO: How likely is Denmark to have a general election ahead of schedule?

The centre-left Social Liberals, a parliamentary ally of the governing Social Democrats, on Tuesday said they are sticking to their early election demand despite a raised alert level in Denmark after the explosions and leakages at the Nord Stream gas pipes.

“This happened in international waters. It is not an attack on Denmark,” Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen said in a social media post, while also calling the Nord Stream leaks “disturbing”.

“There are both wars and crises that must be dealt with for a long time yet,” she also wrote in the post.

“That is also why we can’t wait for an eight-month long election campaign,” she wrote.

“We need an election. So we can get away from election campaigning. And solve the challenges,” she added.

Another left wing party, the Red Green Alliance, has not commented on the early election situation since the Nord Stream leaks. The party’s political leader, Mai Villadsen, earlier called the threat “risky” because it could result in defeat for the left-wing alliance which currently works with the government.

The government’s two main rivals in opposition, the Conservatives and the Liberal (Venstre) party, both said on Wednesday that they did not believe the Nord Stream situation was cause to delay an election.

“Denmark has de facto been in election season since the Social Liberals gave Mette Frederiksen an ultimatum after the Mink Commission’s heavy criticism of the prime minister and her leadership,” Liberal political spokesperson Sophie Løhde said in a written comment to news wire Ritzau.

“Our country has large challenges which must be solved. And a general election is needed so we can get a new prime minister and a conservative-liberal government that will take responsibility and create economic security for Danes and steer us safely through the energy crisis,” she said.

A similar message came from Løhde’s counterpart in the Conservative party, Mette Abildgaard, who noted that the events in the Baltic did not represent a military threat to Denmark.

“There is no heightened military security threat to Denmark. This is a serious situation but it will also be a serious situation in two, three or four months. We can therefore just as well get an election done so we are ready to deal with the coming challenges,” she said to Ritzau.

The government is yet to give any indication of when it might call an election, with Frederiksen skirting the issue when asked.

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EUROPEAN UNION

EXPLAINED: What’s at stake in the European parliamentary elections?

The 2024 European elections take place around Europe from June 6th to June 9th but how do they work and what does the European parliament actually do and how does it work?

EXPLAINED: What's at stake in the European parliamentary elections?

The European Parliament is one of the largest elected bodies in the world – with 705 members.

With over 450 million people living in the EU, only India’s Parliament represents more people globally.

Plenty of hot button issues – like national defence and healthcare – are still largely decided by national parliaments. That’s likely to remain so, but the European Parliament has power to act in a few key areas.  

It scrutinises all laws the EU’s executive – or the European Commission – proposes and it can also request legislation. Plenty of recent high-profile EU laws have come at its insistence. These include the end of roaming charges in the EU and GDPR, which now sets data privacy standards around the globe.

Besides regulations on tech and artificial intelligence, expect MEPs to be debating a lot of legislation around consumer protection, food safety, certain action on climate change and transition like the European Green Deal, trade deals, as well as Europe’s support for Ukraine and whether it will eventually be a member of the EU.

European election results will also have some influence over whether Ursula von der Leyen – the first woman ever to be European Commission President and from the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) – gets another term.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The 2024 European elections will influence whether she gets another term in the EU’s top job. Photo: AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias

READ ALSO: Who is Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen, the surprise candidate to take the EU’s top job?

So do MEPs represent their country in the European Parliament?

Technically, they’re not supposed to. MEPs are mandated to act in what they see as the interest of wider Europe – even if that conflicts with the interests of their own country. MEPs are still chosen in election contests that are run nationally though.

Every five years since 1979, voters around the European Union vote for 705 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in Brussels and Strasbourg. Each country gets a number of MEPs roughly proportional to its population. With Germany being the EU’s most populous country, it gets the most, with 96 seats.  

However, MEPs don’t sit in the European Parliament based on country as they aren’t supposed to act in purely national interests – but looking at what they see as the interest of all of Europe. They sit in the European Parliament based on party group. So a Green from Germany and a Green from France will sit together. That German Green also won’t be sitting with the German Christian Democrats – who themselves will sit on the other side of the chamber with parties like Ireland’s Fine Gael – a fellow centre-right party.

European parliamentarians say they do that to encourage you to vote in a European way – considering the issues you think will impact all of Europe – rather than treat the European elections as a referendum on your own national government – which studies show often happens.

How are the elections expected to go?

Some countries – most notably Germany – report a strong lead for a mainstream party. In Germany’s case, that party is the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), of which current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is a member. The populist far-right AfD, meanwhile, trails by comparison.

‘Wake-up call’: Far-right parties set to make huge gains in 2024 EU election

The same cannot be said for the populist right elsewhere in Europe, where polls everywhere from Austria to Sweden to France and the Netherlands show right-wing parties having the potential to make some big gains over their 2019 results.

At the same time, more centrist European political parties on the centre-left and centre-right are still likely to be able to keep a majority in the European Parliament according to the latest polls.

Elections to borders: 7 big changes in the EU that will impact you this year

Who gets to vote?

If you are a citizen of the European Union – whether German, Irish, French, Italian, Spanish, etc. – you can vote in the European elections.

It’s important to note here that you don’t necessarily vote where you are from but instead vote from wherever you live in the EU. So if you’re an EU citizen living in Germany, you don’t need to be German to vote in the European elections in Germany. A German living in Spain would vote there, just as a Spaniard living in Germany would vote there.

Voting rules are nationally set though. So EU citizens who are 16 years or older can vote in Germany and Austria, but those same EU citizens would need to be 18 to vote in France, Spain, Italy, Denmark, or Sweden.

Each country will also handle voter registration processes by their own rules and voting itself takes place on the day it would normally happen in that country. For many countries, this is Sunday, June 9th – although Italy opens its vote on Saturday, June 8th as well.

Ballot papers are placed on desks at a polling station in Nuremberg, southern Germany, during regional elections in Bavaria

Ballot papers are placed on desks at a polling station in Nuremberg, southern Germany. (Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)

The vote is proportional and most countries are one national constituency. Some countries do though, have some subnational constituencies. These include Italy, Ireland, Belgium, and Poland.

Italy, for example, has five regional constituencies that elect MEPs. These are Northwest, Northeast, Central, Southern, and Islands. Each one represents four to six of the Italian regions – with the exception of Islands – which elects MEPs to represent Sardinia and Sicily.

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