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ECONOMY

EXPLAINED: What can foreigners in Sweden do about the weak krona?

The Swedish Krona is at a record low against multiple currencies, hammering the international buying power of anyone earning their salaries or holding assets in the currency. We asked Johan Löf at Handelsbanken what foreigners in Sweden should do about this.

EXPLAINED: What can foreigners in Sweden do about the weak krona?

How low is the krona right now? 

At the start of March 2023, one US dollar bought you 10.48 Swedish krona. This is less than the 11.37 krona you could buy with one dollar when the krona to dollar exchange rate hit an all-time low in September last year, but still well off the paltry 6 kronor a dollar would have bought you in 2008 following the financial crisis.

A euro got you 11.1 kronor, which is not quite a record, but more than it has been for most of the past decade. 

The only major currency which is more or less stable against the krona is the pound, which will now buy about 12.56 kronor, down from 13 in February last year, but above the levels of around 10.5 the pound hit shortly after the UK voted to leave the European Union. 

Why is the krona worth so little? 

Johan Löf, the head of forecasting at the Handelsbanken bank, told The Local in September 2022 when the krona hit an all-time-low against the dollar that the krona always tended to take a hit at times of financial uncertainty. 

“The krona is a relatively small currency much like the Swedish economy is a relatively small economy,” he said. “You could compare it to a small boat sailing the big ocean, so when you don’t go on the course that you thought you were going, it can be a bit of a shaky ride,” he said.

“Right now with financial market conditions being volatile, with a lot of uncertainty and risks, the Swedish krona takes a hit. Investors and various agents of the economy don’t want to hold so much of this smaller currency. Instead, they they go to safe havens like the US dollar.

“So even though there are fundamentals that would suggest that the Swedish kroner will strengthen again over time, for the time being and for some foreseeable future, we think that the krona will remain quite weak.”

How are foreigners living in Sweden affected? 

It very much depends on their individual financial situation: which currency they earn their salary in, which currency they hold assets in, and which currencies they have the highest outgoings in. 

People who live and earn in Sweden, but travel regularly to countries with stronger currencies, or perhaps send remittances back to family at home, are likely be negatively affected, Löf said. 

“It makes you lose purchasing power in these other countries: you get fewer goods and less services for the money that you have in the Swedish currency.”

It’s a similar situation for people or small businesses based in Sweden, who need to, or perhaps only want to, buy goods outside of Sweden. 

On the other hand, for people who have substantial savings abroad in dollars or euros, this might be an opportunity to convert them into kronor for use in Sweden.  

“If you have savings abroad, and you feel the need to use some of those savings, when you then sell your foreign currency to buy Swedish kronor, then you will get more Swedish kronor,” Löf explained. 

What can foreigners living in Sweden do to lessen the impact of a weak krona? 

Change the currency in which you get paid 

The best way to protect against currency exchange shocks is to make sure that you’re paid in the same currency that you spend in, so if you live in Sweden but have a lot of your outgoings abroad, it’s an advantage to be paid in dollars or euros. 

If you’re considering getting a new job, perhaps favour international employers that can pay you in one of the major currencies, or if you work for a big international company, perhaps you can ask to be paid in a different currency. 

Get freelance or part-time work outside of Sweden

If you work as a freelancer, or have some spare time for additional work, consider getting part-time freelance gigs with companies abroad that pay in euros or dollars. The lower the krona sinks, the higher your real wage when you spend in Sweden. 

Those living close to Sweden’s borders with other countries could consider working in Denmark, Norway or Finland to earn some extra cash, if possible.

Time major spending for the best point in the market 

If you have savings in kronor and are considering, for instance, buying a holiday house abroad, it is probably worth waiting until the kronor has strengthened and the Swedish economy is back growing strongly. 

Similarly, if you have savings outside of Sweden in euros or in dollars, and have been planning on buying a property in Sweden, now might be a good time to consider doing so (although be aware that interest rates are expected to rise further, which in turn means Swedish property prices may drop even more).

Get a multiple currency account 

It can be helpful to have an account in multiple currencies, such as those provided by banks such as Wise and Revolut. Keeping any cash in a combination of dollars, euros and kronor can reduce your exposure to any single currency. 

The advantage for foreigners living in Sweden is that you can set up accounts in multiple currencies, such as US dollars, Euros and Pound Sterling, each with their own local bank number, which you can use to receive and make payments domestically in each country. 

With the krona so low at the moment, it’s probably a good idea not to convert your kronor to euros or dollars. Try to wait until the krona is stronger instead, and your money will stretch further.

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MONEY

Swedish central bank: Cuts to key interest rate in May or June ‘likely’

Sweden's Riksbank on Wednesday left the country's main interest rate unchanged at 4 percent, with cuts in May or June "likely".

Swedish central bank: Cuts to key interest rate in May or June 'likely'

“Inflation is in the process of stabilising at the [2 percent] target, but inflationary pressures are still somewhat elevated,” the bank wrote in a press release accompanying the announcement.

It was widely expected that the bank would choose to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 4 percent, the highest level since 2008.

“It is likely that the [key interest] rate can be cut in May or June if inflation prospects remain favourable,” it added.

According to the bank’s forecast, it expects to lower the key interest rate three times over the next year, reaching 3.2 percent by the first quarter of 2025 – significantly lower than the 4.1 percent prediction from its November 2023 forecast.

The bank also revised its forecasts for GDP and CPI (consumer price index) inflation. GDP is expected to stand at 0.3 percent this year, up from the previous prediction of -0.2 percent, CPI inflation is predicted to stand at 3.5 percent, down from the previous prediction of 4.4 percent, while the prediction for CPIF inflation (consumer price index with a fixed interest rate, the measure favoured by the Riksbank), remains the same at 2.3 percent for 2024.

EDITOR’S PICK:

There are a few possible risk factors which could affect these predictions, it writes, including new supply shocks due to geopolitical unrest, the krona continuing to weaken, or companies’ pricing behaviour not changing as expected.

Experts from major Swedish banks welcomed the decision, adding that the Riksbank may lower the key interest rate more often than suggested in its forecast.

“We think there will be even more drops to the interest rate,” head analyst at Nordea, Susanne Spector, told TT newswire, adding that there is a “high chance” that the rate could be lowered as soon as May.

SEB agreed, predicting four drops to the interest rate and a “slightly higher chance” of a drop to the rate in May rather than June.

“For households under pressure an earlier drop is positive,” SEB interest strategist Amanda Sundström told TT.

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