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EXPLAINED: What the steep rise in Swiss interest rates could mean for you

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised the key interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, putting it back in positive territory at 0.5 percent.

EXPLAINED: What the steep rise in Swiss interest rates could mean for you
Depending on what you are buying, your purchasing power ma go up or down. Photo by Emil Kalibradov on Pexels

As announced by Switzerland’s central bank on Thursday, the rate change applies from Friday, September 23rd.

“The bank’s aim is to counter the renewed rise in inflationary pressure and the spread of inflation to goods and services that have so far been less affected”, according to SNB.

The SNB has not said how long the current rate will be in place, but noted that “it cannot be ruled out that further increases in the SNB policy rate will be necessary to ensure price stability over the medium term”.

READ MORE: Swiss central bank announces big rate hike in inflation fight

Inflation rate in Switzerland currently stands at 3.5 percent. While it is much lower than in the eurozone, where it exceeds 9.1 percent, it is still higher than its usual rate of below 1 percent.

Why has the SNB raised the interest rate for the first time since 2015?

For the same reason that other central banks have done so, including the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in the US: price stability

In general, central banks see increasing interest rates as a response to rising inflation: higher rates help reduce the overall level of demand and, subsequently, also the upward pressure on prices.

Whether this strategy will work is another matter.

The SNB rate hikes will “have a fundamentally dampening effect on inflation”, Felix Oeschger, analyst at Moneyland price comparison platform, told The Local.

“However, it is far from clear whether these alone will be enough to curb inflation”, he added.

One for the reasons for this uncertainty, Oeschger said, is that “the energy crisis and the high prices of some agricultural commodities, such as wheat, are a result of the Ukraine war. These prices are more difficult to influence with key interest rate increases”.

In its inflation forecast, the SNB predicted the inflation will drop to 2.4 percent in 2023.

But “considering that the SNB has continuously revised its inflation forecasts upward since December 2021, it is quite conceivable that inflation in Switzerland will continue to rise or at least remain high”, Oeschger pointed out.

READ MORE: EXPLAINED: The groups most affected by inflation in Switzerland

Will the Swiss consumers benefit (or not) from the higher interest rates?

It depends on what you are looking to buy.

If you are planning to buy big-ticket items that are usually purchased with credit — like homes — then you may have to dig deeper into your pockets.

If you already have a fixed-rate mortgage, then you are safe from rate increases for the term of your mortgage.

But for new buyers or those with variable-rate mortagages, things may be more problematic.

“It is not excluded that mortgage interest rates will reach 3 to 4 percent next year”, from the current 2.6 to 3.1 percent, according to Donato Scognamiglio, director of real estate platform Iazi.

What about rents?

Tenants may not be better off than homeowners.

Many have already received notices of higher rents to compensate for increased costs of energy.

Now another charge could be added as well, though probably not immediately.

“Rents will go up, but only when the reference interest rate itself is raised”, Scognamiglio said.

The benchmark interest rate is the average of all mortgage interest rates. If the reference rate increases by 0.25%, tenants will have to pay 3 percent more rent. “I expect this to happen next year”, he said.

But it is not all bad news; higher interest rates will yield some benefits as well.

For instance, if you have certain types of investments, you may see more money coming in.

“I expect yields on fixed-income financial products such as bonds to continue to rise”,  Oeschger said.

“In the case of medium-term notes issued by Swiss banks, we have already seen significant increases since the beginning of the year”, he added.

As for savings accounts, however, “the banks have so far been very hesitant to raise interest rates, but if monetary policy tightens further, we can expect interest rates to rise slightly here as well”.

Generally speaking, what will become cheaper and more expensive for consumers?

The bad news here is that everything that has to do with energy, even indirectly, will become more expensive.

This includes “heating, transport costs, electricity and also food”, another Moneyland expert, Ralf Beyeler told The Local.

READ MORE: Pasta up by 13 percent: How food and energy prices in Switzerland are rising

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SHOPPING

REVEALED : Are ‘discount’ supermarkets in Switzerland really cheaper?

Lidl, Aldi and Denner claim their prices beat those of large Swiss retailers. But is this really the case?

REVEALED : Are ‘discount’ supermarkets in Switzerland really cheaper?

Common consumer goods (except one) are typically more expensive in Switzerland than in neighbour countries — sometimes by much.

This includes food.

READ ALSO: Why Switzerland is the most expensive country in Europe

That is especially the case of largest Swiss chains, Migros and Coop, while Denner, Lidl, and Aldi say their food prices are significantly lower.

To find out whether this claim is actually true, journalists from RTS public broadcaster’s consumer programme went shopping in each of these supermarkets. 

They purchased the same 30 products in each of the five supermarkets on the same day, to ensure that the price comparison is as accurate as possible.

Not what you’d expect

In each of the stores, the investigators purchased only the lowest priced items from the supermarkets’ budget lines.

It turned out that most money was spent at Denner, widely considered to be one of the lowest-priced supermarkets.

The total for the 30 items came to 181.67 francs — more than was spent at the country’s more expensive stores, Migros and Coop, where identical basket of goods cost 170.37 and 167.82 francs, respectively.

(That, in itself, is surprising as well, because Migros typically has lower prices than Coop).

As for the other two supermarkets, these purchases cost 166.59 francs at Aldi and 162.05 at Lidl.

So the difference in price between Migros and Coop versus Aldi and Lidl is minimal. But what is even more surprising is that the cost of groceries at ‘cheap’ Denner is actually highest of the lot, by between 11 and nearly 20 francs.

Migros and Coop performed quite well in the comparison survey because most of the items purchased in those stores came from their budget lines, M-Budget and Prix-Garantie, respectively, both of which were introduced to compete with Aldi and Lidl.

But how important is price? Patrick Krauskopf, a professor of anti-trust law, told RTS: “German, French, English, Spanish and American consumers pay a lot of attention to price. In Switzerland, consumers place more emphasis on quality of service. Price is almost secondary.

“Distributors have realised this and have stopped competing fiercely on price.”

Big versus small

While this particular analysis focused on supermarket chains, another survey, conducted at the end of 2023, looked at prices in small grocery shops. 

Common logic has it that it is cheaper to shop in supermarkets than a local corner store, because big retailers purchase products in large quantities, which means lower prices for consumers.

However, prices in some local shops were found to be “up to 30 percent cheaper than Migros and Coop.” 

The reason is that in order to cut costs, small grocers may buy their products from the most cost-effective suppliers, a tactic which includes importing some items.

Another reason for lower prices is that unlike major supermarkets, which ‘pretty up’ their stores for better presentation of products, these small retailers are ‘no-frill’ shops. This means little money is invested in décor, so there are no extra costs to pass on to consumers.

 READ ALSO: Why it might be cheaper to avoid the big supermarkets in Switzerland
 

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