According to SVT’s exit poll, which saw 11,000 people interviewed on their voting decisions, the Social Democrats lost 8 percent of their voters to the far-right party, a shift which now looks likely to have lost the party the election (although there is still a very slim chance of the party gaining a majority in late votes counted on Wednesday and Thursday). 

As the Social Democrats are Sweden’s biggest party, that 8 percent represents tens of thousands of voters, helping take the Sweden Democrats to their record result, making them the second biggest party in Sweden. 

“The Social Democrats are becoming more and more a white-collar party for the middle classes,” Jonas Hinnfors, a professor at Gothenburg University, told the TT newswire. There are now more white-collar than blue-collar workers among those who vote Social Democrat.”

Holmberg said that more men seemed to have shifted from the Social Democrats to the Sweden Democrats, and that the party had also grown among men who run their own businesses. 

“It’s pretty unique that a party manages to grow on both of those sides, as they are normally the classic opponents in Sweden, what you would have called in the old days, ‘the working class against capitalists’,” Holmberg said.  

According to the election survey, the Social Democrats are still the biggest party among blue-collar workers, with a 32 percent share of the vote, but the Sweden Democrats are not far behind, with a 29 percent vote share. 

When it comes to business owners, the Moderate Party is still the biggest with 26 percent of the vote, but the Sweden Democrats are not far behind on 24 percent. 

On election night, Holmberg said that what the Sweden Democrats had managed to do was unique in Northern Europe, both in terms of its growth and in its broad appeal across different voter categories. 

“In every other country in Northern Europe, the corresponding right-wing national parties are falling back,” he said. 

In addition, the Sweden Democrats where making inroads across class and profession. 

“The three classic Swedish parties all have their areas of strength,” he said. “The Social Democrats have the workers. That is now contested with the Sweden Democrats. The Moderates have the business owners, that is now contested with the Sweden Democrats, and the Centre Party had the farmers, and the Sweden Democrats are now stronger among agricultural workers than the Centre Party.” 

“The three classic parties with their three support pillers are being challenged, and the Sweden Democrats have succeed on all three fronts. It’s typical for populist parties to make broad progress, but never in such a a unique way as the Sweden Democrats have today.”

Swedish speakers can watch Holmberg speak in the clip in this Tweet from the journalist Emanuel Karlsten. 

Det var väl nästan ingen som var uppe så sent så att de fick höra Sören Holmbergs analys av SD:s framgångar. Vilket var synd, för det var den bästa under hela valdygnet. Så jag klippte ut den: pic.twitter.com/D4kIBHkJow

— Emanuel Karlsten (@emanuelkarlsten) September 12, 2022